river bluff raise my ace high vs nit 50nl

[daven]

villain is an ok nit reg 12-10 with 3% 3b and high fold to steal. He has been moving up through stakes and is now mixing 25nl and occasional 'shots' at 50nl but he's sorta scared money. we have some history, i know he hasn't caught me bluff raising rivers before. He sees me as 18-13, 30% steal, low c-bet and kinda nitty post-flop. He has a low fold to cbet - mostly cos he always has a hand. I've stacked him once same session, different table, when i opened QQ and value bet 3 streets on Q48rb, 9, 2 vs his 99 turned set.

His range pre is like 44+/AQ+/KQs at its widest, but more likely AQ+/77-JJ. I steal pretty wide vs him, and he knows it and isn't folding here if i c-bet. I c-bet sometimes, sometimes don't vs him, kinda irrespective of my hole cards. I call turn cos he has 77 some of the time, TT/JJ sometimes, rest of his range sometimes - and basically i'm planning to steal the pot on any river unimproved - probably call any A or K river if he bets, and bet those cards if he checks. Thoughts? He's the type to be scared of TJ/two pair a bunch here and his sizing fits with him hoping for thin value.

bluff needs to work about half the time..


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($84.25)
UTG ($50)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($83.30)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($14.60)
Hero (Button) ($50)
SB ($51.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
5 folds, Hero bets $1.75, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($4) 6, 4, 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4) 8 (2 players)
SB bets $2.65, Hero calls $2.65

River: ($9.30) Q (2 players)
SB bets $6, Hero raises to $17,

[pocketfours]

Intro was tl;dr but not really thrilled about this. I'd just jam most of my range if I was villain, expecting you to have cbet at least 66/44/99/QQ/TJ/T7s, but probably also Q9/98.

[Hoopy]

I'd open smaller against him just to make your steal more profitable. Have you ever checked back a strong made hand against him on the flop before? I don't mind your river raise, seems like he'd just think "zomg raised must fold" a good portion of the time.

[badgers]

well you play a weird cbetting game so you might be able to get away with repping JT/Q9/Q6 and I don't think his range is gonna ba particularly strong so I think this is ok.

[Da GOAT]

pure guessing game on his range since it includes so much. id rather fold>call>raise.

[caddie444]

Going from the preflop range you assigned him his river range is 44,66,88-JJ since I highly doubt he is betting AQ,KQ on the turn. (77 is also possible but unlikely as he may bet turn with this hand but I doubt he fires a lot of rivers)

If he is betting his whole river range on the river he is betting 24 combos. You can prob safely assume he is b/f'ing 12 combos ---> 10-10, J-J
(Sorry P4's we know you would Jam over as villain but you can hand read)

So villain will be folding half of his range to the river raise, and you said yourself he only needs to fold about half the time to work... so the play seems to be marginally +EV given the range you gave him and as long as he doesn't b/c 10-10, J-J or show up with KK+ here ever

pure guessing game on his range since it includes so much. id rather fold>call>raise.

raise>fold>>>>call IMO. What do you beat that calling is a good play?

[badgers]

I highly doubt he is betting AQ,KQ on the turn.

why?

[caddie444]

I highly doubt he is betting AQ,KQ on the turn.

why?

because:

villain is an ok nit reg... but he's sorta scared money.

Scared money doesn't bet the turn without at least a pair/draw

[badgers]

2 overcards doesn't seem like a draw to you? esp when daven could just be giving up

[badgers]

i mean so many tags just bet 100% of their range when you check back the flop that not adding in some combos of AQ/KQ just seems wrong imo.

[Micro2Macro]

cbet flop and prepare to barrel

[caddie444]

i mean so many tags just bet 100% of their range when you check back the flop that not adding in some combos of AQ/KQ just seems wrong imo.

Well if we did add some # of combos of AQ/KQ I think we can safely assume he isn't b/f'ing the riv for the amount Daven raised, meaning we should just fold

[dev]

If he's even just a little bit scared money, how can we not

cbet flop and prepare to barrel

[speedcake]

ya why u checking back the flop? After that hand is just weird.