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Suggestions on better play?
Willain is 26/15, Call steal from BB is 75%, 3bet 3%, Agg 2.0, No fold to cbet stat as yet, turn aggression frequency is 37% over 100 hands
Villain would see me about 17/11, butt steal 33%, cbet 70%, turn cbet 32%
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($2.04)
BB ($7.10)
UTG ($9.60)
UTG+1 ($4.24)
MP1 ($7.80)
MP2 ($10.03)
CO ($9.60)
Hero (Button) ($9.43)
Preflop: Hero is Button with 10 , K
5 folds, Hero bets $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20
Fairly standard button raise I think.
With a call steal from BB % of 75% he has a very wide calling range. I've put him on 22-99, any AXs+, A8o+, KTs+ and T9s+. It could be a lot wider though I suppose. I discount TT-AA and AK as with a 3bet% of 3% I think he would 3bet those.
Flop: ($0.65) 9 , 7 , K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB calls $0.50
Check call has me thinking 99, 77, 97, Kx, A9, A7, T9. T8s is possible though I'm not sure he would have called pre with that. QJ is unlikely but also possible. K9 and K7 are both unlikely but not out of the realms of possibility I suppose.
Turn: ($1.65) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.57, BB raises to $3.14, Hero?
His check has me thinking he is on a single pair, maybe K with weak kicker or possibly A9, T9. I discount sets as I think he would be betting to protect against the FD now. So I bet believing I am ahead with 2 pair. I bet the pot as I don't want him having the odds to call with some sort of back door FD he has picked up.
Check call flop, check raise turn? I will admit it has me stumped. Particularly as it is a min raise. Sort of screams of wanting a call to me.
Sets are a definite possibility. There are now two possible straights out there as well. KT is a distinct possibility now and K9 is a remote possibility.
Mathematically it depends entirely on A9 and K9 being part of his range - from pokerstove we get....
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.920% 51.86% 06.06% 753 88.00 { KcTc }
Hand 1: 42.080% 36.02% 06.06% 523 88.00 { TT-99, 77, A9s, KTs-K9s, QJs, A9o, KTo-K9o }
Take out A9 though as I really think that one is unlikely and our equity goes down to 41.3%. We can probably take out K9 as well as I think it unlikely he would have called preflop with that. Our equity then goes down to 19.69%
We have to call 19.7%
So I guess it's at least a call and then see what he does on the river.
Anyone play the hand differently?
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