[5NL] 54s...attempted steal...river a straight...wtf?

[Cobra_1878]

Both villains are pretty much unknown but looking weak passive so far.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $5.07
UTG: $5.00
MP: $8.77
CO: $12.50
Hero (BTN): $7.65
SB: $5.11

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 5 4

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, SB calls $0.13, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.45, 3 players) Q 3 6
SB checks, BB bets $0.45, Hero calls $0.45, SB calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.80, 3 players) 8
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.80, 3 players) 2
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB raises to $4.51 and is all-in, fold, Hero ???

WTF is this? I genuinely don't even know where to start when analyzing this hand...why would he c/r AI on the river? The only hands I have to worry about are flushes but why would he check a flush on the river...why would he not value bet it in a 3 way pot...?

This just looks super spewy but with villain being unknown I'm just not sure what to do here? It's rare for villains to raise bluff river at 5NL...

Thoughts?

[Savy]

I think I like to raise the flop here, I mean if villains are really weak passive it's probably a fold but then that makes it sound like they are calling too much and we shouldn't be playing hands like 54s and we much prefer stuff like K5 which at least has showdown value and gives us TP type hands.

But anyway, back to original point, the reason I like to raise the flop here is because our hand is shit and we're behind even against two random overcards. This also gives us the option of turning our hand into a bluff on certain diamond cards and when we do hit our straight we can make it look like we are turning a missed FD into a bluff and get paid off more. It also doesn't offer odds to the people left to act.

Once again if they are betting though it probably means they have a very good hand because they are usually so passive, so raising would tend to get a lot of shoves and can put is in an awkward position if we have no fold equity.

And I think SB has a flush here a lot, so fold.

[daven]

do you always steal 3x from the button?
fold flop

[Cobra_1878]

do you always steal 3x from the button?
fold flop

Yeah, I used to 2x but it just doesn't get any folds so had to up it.

[Savy]

2.5x gets just as many folds as 3x does btw, I just set up a preflop buttons that i press for 2.5, 4 and max. I open 3x from most places, but that's just one click of the raise bar.

[Cobra_1878]

2.5x gets just as many folds as 3x does btw, I just set up a preflop buttons that i press for 2.5, 4 and max. I open 3x from most places, but that's just one click of the raise bar.

I have 2.5x, 3x and 4x. Only really used 2.5x for tournaments though, will give it a try in cash games.

[WeldPhaser]

yeah I would go for 2.5x otb cob.. I do I only vary my opens in two spots utg = 3.5 , btn = 2.5. but as hard as a fold is here I think you should. idk does weak- passive ever decide his Qx is ship worthy b here??

btw. what's your range for bb after he flats pre and donk pot??

[Carroters]

Fold flop. $1.10/fold river - as played fold river.

[rpm]

i concur with carroters points except i'd probably go for slightly "fatter" value on the river due to villains probably calling way more than they should and practically never C/R bluffing us. i'd bet something like $1.3 or $1.4 and just insta-fold vs a raise. even though his line is stupid as a bluff or for value, i just don't expect anyone to have a substantial enough river C/R bluff range at these stakes to really ever consider snapping it off without holding damn near the nuts. basically, this is an awfully played flush way more often than it's a weaker passive player deciding to check/shove the river as a bluff into 2 opponents

edit: fuck i do a lot of editing. when i say "insta-fold", probably don't actually insta-fold (not that it'd probably matter much vs this guy, but timing balance will become important at some point so might as well get in the habit). i just meant "comfortably fold"

[jackvance]

3x is totally standard for me in that spot. Flop you can fold, it's 3-way so you need to hit, and 2d 7d are tainted outs. You have position so you can justify calling once, but not much to gain and more lose. River is ok, now fold. This is the exact donk line for a flush, just look at it. Noone bluffs here 3-way.

[griffey24]

3x on the button seems like overkill. 2x or 2.5x seem reasonable.

2x has to work 57% of the time.
2.5 has to work 62.5% of the time
3x has to work 67% of the time.

I don't think the number of folds you will get with 3x over 2.5x warrants risking 0.5 more each time. Also you will get 3b bigger and you will have to 4b bluff bigger now as well.

As for the hand, seems like a very easy river b/f. Nobody is assuming you have a straight, people ARE assuming you can have a flush, so you have waay the bottom of your perceived range here.

[jackvance]

Do you raise AA here 2x also griffey?

[surviva316]

I don't think the number of folds you will get with 3x over 2.5x warrants risking 0.5 more each time. Also you will get 3b bigger and you will have to 4b bluff bigger now as well.

We're rarely getting 3b light here and we're NEVER 4b bluffing. Also, we're not really going for a pure steal with most of our range. 3x's is absolutely fine with two fish in the blinds. because we shouldn't be opening anything much worse than 54s anyway. Most of our range is 98o+ type stuff and we want to punish them as much as possible for calling light preflop when they're out of position with a range that's no better than ours.

If it's two nits in the blinds, then obviously min open ATC.

[Carroters]

Yeah i always go 3x here with two feeshes in the blinds. A lot of EVees comes from us c betting them and them folding their stupidly wide range so yeah the more that's in the pot the more +EV all these c bets become that work like 60+% of the time. Also it's nice to build bigger pots vs fish in position - solid mantra.

[griffey24]

I'm almost always opening 2.5 on button.

My primary consideration for fish being in the blinds is from EP/MP when I want to guarantee I isolate the fish and have position. In that case I might 3.5-4x from EP/MP, compared to my standard of 3x.

That being said I didn't notice that there were fish in the blinds when I made my post. "pretty much unknown but looking weak passive so far", sounds like not much info and prob not enough to deviate btn steal sizing. Even still my primary motivation for sizing it bigger is usually to isolate the fish and have position on them, and not necessarily for pot building purposes. In this case we're already guaranteed position.

Really though your steal sizing should be part of your overall gameplan. If you're only stealing 25-30% then sure 3x all day, your range is strong enough to do so. My btn steal is probably 55%+ unopened pot, so 3x would be overkill.

[surviva316]

It's 5nl, so I'll take my chances that just about any passive player is someone who tends to call too much.

Your static Button ATS number is irrelevant. Mine is higher than that, but I'm not stealing any more than like 32-38% here (mine is really inflated by min-opening ATC when there are two weaktights in the blinds). I'm not kidding when I say that 54s is at the very brink of our stealing range here. I wouldn't have really batted an eye if someone said to fold it pre.

[surviva316]

Actually, nevermind, folding pre is bad. High FE on the flop and a very very good chance you'll see 5 cards for the price of nothing more than a c-bet, but yeah, not going much worse than this.