Turn barrel seemed spewy

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is unknown.

Button ($27.12)
SB ($10.52)
BB ($24.90)
UTG ($27.20)
Hero (MP) ($56.37)
CO ($45.15)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, 9
1 fold, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Q, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Button calls $1

Turn: ($3.85) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, Button calls $2

River: ($7.85) J (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button raises to $10, Hero calls $5


Action shown all the way to the river because I'm interested to hear opinions on the whole hand.

The turn barrel felt kind of spewy, but I figured a lot of his flop calling range on a paired, dry flop was small/medium PP he'd peel with then fold to a turn bet, we also picked up a little equity with the gutter on the turn.

OTR, I'd almost rather not have made the straight when he minraises, but I feel like enough random Qx can do this at 25NL, and a slowplayed AA/KK, so given that it's $5 to call into a $23 pot we have to be good only about 20% of the time. I think his range OTR is [AA, KK, QQ, AQs, AQo, QK-Q2s, QKo, QJo, QTo, 44, 88, JJ] which we crush, and even if we discount AA, KK for not 3betting preflop, and JJ for not being so likely to get to the river, then we stick in all the AdXd that he peeled a backdoor draw with OTF, we still have like 60% equity.

So I think the river is a clear call due to sizing, but I kind of wish I had never got myself there in the first place.

Thoughts?

[Savy]

Personally, fold pre, check/fold flop, check/fold turn, bet/fold river.

[Cobra_1878]

Yeah I think I'm almost definitely checking the turn here.

[griffey24]

You're betting pretty small on both flop and turn. I highly doubt you would bet this small with Qx? Maybe on the flop but once he's peeled you'd probably hammer it harder than almost half pot on turn?

I would bet harder on the turn if I was going to barrel.

[kickass]

open is fine i think, flop is also fine, turn is prolly spew as i dont see villain folding much, bet/fold river is prolly better but i can see some villains raising worse ocassionally meh i prolly call vs this size cos ima curious fishy station type.

[abelardx]

I'd probably play it exactly the same except bet a little bigger on the turn and definitely fold to the river raise. People are not bluff raising the river very much if at all. OOP you could also simply check/fold the flop and move on to a better situation. If you are going to barrel as a bluff oop, make it a little bigger than you would in position. There is no reason to 'save money' on earlier street bluffs if you plan on continuing.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Villain is unknown.

You may be in over your head if you say this at 25NL. Even if you're beating the stake, you will definitely improve if you start spending some study time thinking about how to put reads on Villains more quickly.

No Villain is unknown. Stack sizes, if nothing else, should tell you something, even on your first hand. If you used any kind of table selection, then you can make "in the dark" reads about the whole table as "fishy" or whatever.

It doesn't say you posted a dead blind, and your sizing indicated that there was just the SB + BB dead on the table. So this is not your first hand at this table. I don't think any sites let you play your first hand at the table from the BTN, so this isn't Villain's 1st hand, either.

You should be able to give us something.


Anyway, in a vacuum, I agree with Savy.

[BorisTheSpider]

No Villain is unknown. Stack sizes, if nothing else, should tell you something, even on your first hand. If you used any kind of table selection, then you can make "in the dark" reads about the whole table as "fishy" or whatever.

Respectfully, I think you're somewhat mistaken here - I am not sure if I might have seen villain fold a couple of hands, I can't remember, when I posted the hand I did it from a marked history in HEM so I don't remember exactly what happened the previous few hands, but this was zoom anyway when (if I recall correctly) you can be in any position on your first hand of the orbit, also because it was zoom there was no "table selection" as such, and his stack size in this case didn't really mean much - he could be a reg who just picked up some small pot, or a fish who doubled through a while back.

I am all for making reads based on things other than stats, and actually believe that mostly the reads you have from non-stats sources are the strongest ones, but in this case I really do believe he qualified as a total unknown.

As far as Savy's post goes, I'm all for different opinions, and it's arguable to fold it pre, but given the analysis in my OP I can't see how we b/f river with his sizing.

[Savy]

The b/f river is the most ambigious one, I don't hate b/c. I do think the rest is complete spew though.

And making notes on zoom is like the most +EV thing ever, as no one does. If you really have 0 fair enough but you should be paying more attention most likely (I say this having the same leak myself)

[MadMojoMonkey]

this was zoom

'nuff said. Much respect.

I'd fold pre, 'cause T9s is not in my HJ range when playing against unknowns.

I'd actually b/f OTF, if I did open PRE, 'cause I don't think there's enough random spaz that Villain raises on a paired flop to justify a b/c, but maybe Jx and offsuit Ax will fold and make a profitable bluff.

I'd c/f OTT, 'cause I think there are only 3 clean outs at best.

I'd c/f OTR, 'cause calling w/ a straight on a paired board with a 3 flush seems terrible. I can see the merits in a b/f if the bet sizing effectively blocks a larger bet from a wide portion of Villain's range, some of which Hero beats.

[WeldPhaser]

not folding this in HJ, it's top 25% or so so def open.

flop: not a clear bet or fold for me here. i know if i did cbet, i'd do so w every intention of betting most turns. including this one.

river: call it off for the reasons boris stated in op