|
|
 Originally Posted by ensign_lee
OK y'all. Here's my final card, with reasons for why I like the games.
Allright, boys. Here we go again. At first glance, this card didn't look too pretty, but a close look at the two big favorites show why exactly they are such huge favorites. I'm going to try to take both of them.
Seattle -11.5 (-107) 3 units
Hopefully, I can get somebody to take the other side on this bet. Otherwise, I guess I'll just go to Cascade and take -110 if it's still offered there come Sunday morning.
The 49er's have no quarterback and their running game is not the most impressive one in the NFL. The Seattle defense should come close to shutting them out; at worst, they give up 10 points, I think.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense is #1 in the NFL and Shaun Alexander should be able to run all over the 49'ers defense. The Bears' third string running back ran for 100+ yards; why should Shaun Alexander not be able to do the same, plus some yards and some touchdowns. And Matt Hassleback should be able to air it out as a change of pace; if he can avoid turning it over like he did against the Rams defense, the Seahawks should roll in this one.
The rogue factor is the home field advantage that the 49ers have. Remember: they beat the Bucs here in a low scoring game earlier. The Seahawks are going to need to score and score quickly in order to help keep the crowd a non-factor.
Denver -13 (-102) 3 units
This is another bet where I haven't yet found someone to take the other side. If worst comes to worst, I'll bit the bullet and just take the odds from a sportsbook, probably from sportingbet.com where -13 is offered at -105.
The Jets offense is another offense that just should not be able to get it going vs. an improving Denver defense AT HOME. I honestly don't see the Jets being able to score more than 6 points unless Jake throws an interception for a touchdown or gives the ball to the Jets deep in Denver territory.
The rogue factor here will be the Jets defense. They're getting healthier and right now are in the top third of the league. Last week, they limited the Panthers passing attack, picking off Delhomme twice and keep Steve Smith in check. Heck, Davis rushed for les than 100 yards. If they can make Plummer make mistakes, they might have a chance to cover the spread here.
However, if the Jets defense has a weakness, it is the run. They are ranked near the bottom third of the league here. At the same time, as everyone knows, the Broncos just love to run the ball right down their opponent's throats. If Jake Plummer only has to throw 1 pass for every 5-8 runs, that will make both the Broncos and me very happy, because that means that the Jets defense has failed miserably at containing the Denver running game and that Plummer won't get the chance to throw the game away. The mile high altitude might help the Broncos in this respect; come the fourth quarter, the Jets defense should be getting tired after having been on the field most of the game.
Carolina -2.5 (-105) 3 units
I love matchbook. Where no books are offering -2.5 without added juice, I was able to find someone willing to take the other side of this over on matchbook.
To be brutally honest, this game will come down to the running backs. With the city of Chicago being well...Chicago, there won't be too much passing in this game, I believe. The panthers have the edge here as Stephen Davis and his offensive line should hopefully be able to just push their way to the other side of the field. Also, Thomas Jones is still somewhat injured, so he's not up to full speed, which is great for Carolina's #2 ranked running defense.
As far as the passing game goes, the panthers are going to need to try Orton into throwing a game changing interception. They did it well against Bollinger of the Jets, so hopefully they'll be able to do it against Orton. Hopefully, Delhomme has learned from his mistakes last week against the Jets defense and will be ready to play on Sunday. To be honest, I'm kind of scared that the Bears defense will be able to phase Delhomme, but hopefully this is just me being paranoid. One of these quarterbacks is probably going to lose the game for his team; my money, as far as that is concerned, is on Orton to throw the game away.
Both defenses have done well. That being said, both Carolina and Chicago have had easy schedules so far. This will definitely be a game to watch. Carolina, after its bye, has done very well, blowing out all three opponents. Chicago, on the other hand, has played in somewhat close games against the bottom half of the league. That may have padded their stats at least somewhat.
These two teams play a very similar style of football. The thing is that Carolina has been doing it longer, so I definitely give the edge to Carolina. Hopefully, they win.
---
Those three games are my strong plays for the week. I’m really more of a better that deals with spreads rather than a better that deals with totals.
That being said, this is my only play as far as totals are concerned for this week:
Colts/Bengals OVER 48 (+129) 1 unit
Did I mention I love matchbook? It is wonderful what a little scalping can do to get you better odds. All you have to do is put out the traps and hope people come and bite.
The Colts offense is very, very good. They should be able to do just about anything they want to this Bengals defense, especially when running the ball. This has been the Bengals’ defense’s weakness all year and that’s not going to change with Edgerrin James running right at them. The Bengals offense is also very solid and they might (MIGHT) be able to match the Colts score for score, turning this game into an old fashioned shootout.
There’s three things that might foul this prediction up. 1) If the Colts are able to consistently get 3-5 yards a carry on the ground vs. the Bengals, they may not be inclined to light it up in the sky. They’ll take the points that the Bengals give them while taking loads of time off the clock. This would be bad for the over. 2) There is a chance of rain on Sunday. If it rains, that will mess with the over. 3) If the Bengals get behind early, they will, no doubt, go into “passing mode”, which the Colts defense is designed to stop. The second Indy goes up by 14 the game will be done. The Bengals won’t be able to score many more points in catch-up passing mode and the Colts will probably be content to let Edge eat up yardage all day.
I was going to take the colts all the way up to -6.5, but at a sportsbetting forum that I’m a member of, lots of people are taking the Bengals, which scares me.. It seems as though a lot of people are on the Bengals side of the spread, and I think it’s normally going to be a losing proposition to bet against lots of the RX regulars. I might try putting 1 unit on them later if the odds are just too good to pass up. Otherwise, they’re in my fun parlay, so there.
My fun play: I decided to try a parlay this week for fun. 1.5 unit to win 21 units (20 units profit) at sportingbet.com
Carolina -2.5
Denver -12.5
Seattle -12
Indianapolis -6.5
I'm also taking a 6 point teaser in order to try and experiment with teasers. The teaser consists of:
Dallas -1.5
NY Giants -1.5
Seattle -6
Denver -6.5
Pays +300.
Laying 8/5's of a unit to hopefully profit 16/5's. Let's see if I like teasers or not. :P
Please let me know what y’all think.
ensign, you need to get out of the habit of always picking the favorite. You won't stay a winner if you don't.
|
Thoughts on Week 11
Reply With Quote
