Set of Aces, monotone flop

[drtofu66]

I'm a 1.38:1 dog here according to Pokerstove getting 1.7:1 (did I do this right?). Is this range fair? I'm a bigger dog if I take the Qd drawing hands out. Also-- anyone raise the flop?

Board: Kd 7d Ad 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.9930 % 41.99% 00.00% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 58.0070 % 58.01% 00.00% { KK, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, 77, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 8d3d, 8d2d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 7d2d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, AKo, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, Qd9c, Qd9h, Qd9s }


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($24.63)
UTG+1 ($28.50)
MP1 ($24.75)
Hero ($25.25)
MP3 ($9.15)
CO ($10.55)
Button ($19.25)
SB ($16)
BB ($18.07)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP3 calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) K, 7, A (3 players)
BB bets $3.07, Hero calls $3.07, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($9.24) 3 (2 players)
BB calls $14 (All-In), Hero???

[bair]

never, ever fold this...and you included WAY too many hands in his range

[drtofu66]

Is this better?


Board: Kd Ad 7d 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.2199 % 50.22% 00.00% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 49.7801 % 49.78% 00.00% { KcKh, KcKs, KhKs, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, 77, AKs, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, AKo }

[bair]

he probably has the baby flush here very little percent of the time considering it looks like he is protecting something other than a flush..which is very possible considering the flop texture. id say 20% of the time he has the flush, and even when he has the flush you have 10 outs to a boat or better.

[Vinterriket]

If villain has a flush, that means he called a preflop raise with an unpaired hand without A or K. And then villain is fastplaying a flopped flush. How likely is this based on your read of villain?

I agree with bair, it seems he is trying to protect something. I'd say villain has AK or 77. Time to take his stack.

[nutsinho]

you're ahead 100% of the time...

[drtofu66]

I called.

Villain showed 4d3d.

I suckout on the river when a 7 hits.

[I make note that villain calls raises with SC]

[nutsinho]

well played, villain

[SuperDave9x19]

I called.

Villain showed 4d3d.

I suckout on the river when a 7 hits.

[I make note that villain calls raises with SC]

whew.

[SuperDave9x19]

you're ahead 100% of the time...

with 3 diamonds out.... heh heh

Don't get me wrong. 3 suited showing does not ALWAYS = flush, but i guarantee you that 3 As is not 100% winning against 3 of suit showing on flop.

You are a class act.

[nutsinho]

Dave:`
-100% was based on action and stakes, NOT the board
-meant to illustrate that you should never fold here at this level
-it becomes a bit of a thinker if you are playing a very smart lagg, but tofu gave no reads
-you are very immature and newbish for a 40-year-old

[drmcboy]

Yes, raise the flop. Outs to full + solid chance you're ahead = play fast.

[drtofu66]

If villain has a flush, that means he called a preflop raise with an unpaired hand without A or K. And then villain is fastplaying a flopped flush. How likely is this based on your read of villain?

I just know this is the postflop play that I'd make if I had the baby flush (though I like to think I wouldn't have called a PFR with a SC with fewer than 3 others in the pot. And nothing lower than 54s).

[drtofu66]

Yes, raise the flop. Outs to full + solid chance you're ahead = play fast.

What's kind of raise? I chronically underbet in spots like this.

$9-- he has to call $6 for a $15 pot

VS

$12-- he has to call $9 for a $18 pot

[Miffed22001]

3 bet, probable fold to push unless you think villain is a donk.
Nice to see players beginning to adapt their lines with monster hands...

[nutsinho]

3 bet, probable fold to push unless you think villain is a donk.
Nice to see players beginning to adapt their lines with monster hands...

This line could not possibly be correct given stack sizes and hand ranges.

[Miffed22001]

3 bet, probable fold to push unless you think villain is a donk.
Nice to see players beginning to adapt their lines with monster hands...

This line could not possibly be correct given stack sizes and hand ranges.

probably true.
Sod it.
Push