Turned trips, rivered a flush and he still pot bets. wtf!?

[Miffed22001]

No stats on opp, i have a TAGG image, im not convinced my opponent is any good.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
3 players
Converter

Effective stacks 100bbs

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is Button with
Hero raises to $8, SB raises to $15, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: ($47, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($47, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $40, SB calls, BB folds.

River: ($127, 2 players)
SB bets $75, [color=#cc0000]Hero ?????

[Deanglow]

I really want to fold here. This looks exactly like KK and I don't see any other hand he could possibly play this way that you beat.

[Miffed22001]

fwiw, preflop is a minraise, not a raise to $23.
Make any difference?

[Galapogos]

fwiw, preflop is a minraise, not a raise to $23.
Make any difference?

Not if he's shitty and you haven't seen him do this a few times already. They think they're being smart and getting value out of you while not scaring you away. Then they just don't fold KK with an A on board because that's how they are.

[IowaSkinsFan]

This is a really tough hand i need to think about it more.

[Miffed22001]

This is a really tough hand i need to think about it more.

now this makes me happy.

perhaps a simpler question, do you push river or just call...

[bigspenda73]

why not bet the flop????????????????

[Miffed22001]

why not bet the flop????????????????

i dont need to get the money in any faster itll go in with the size of the pot if i pot the turn+river
Also, my hand is great but i have to muck it too a raise.

[badgers]

Surely you mean shove it to a raise if you have any FE...?

[bigspenda73]

why not bet the flop????????????????

i dont need to get the money in any faster itll go in with the size of the pot if i pot the turn+river
Also, my hand is great but i have to muck it too a raise.

when you make statements like this you must give some sort of reasoning

[|~|ypermegachi]

i bet flop.
as played i'd look him up and takes notes for future reference.

[silu73]

I don't mind how you played it and I would call the river bet but be kind of expecting to be on the loosing side of this one.

[EzDuzIt]

tough spot, i would call.

also title is a little misleading he doesn't pot river, if by pot bets you meant bets pot.

[daven]

I think you're ahead more than 25% of the time, so I would call. It won't always be KK

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Call, he only needs to have AK or weird stuff about 28% of the time.

[metalface]

Definately make the crying call and expect to lose to KK, AA or JJ. KK is the most likely hand considering the flop check. If he has AA then the flop check was supposed to be a check-raise. The turn is the perfect card for AA or JJ because he wants you to catch up or put money in drawing very thin or dead.

[Miffed22001]

Call, he only needs to have AK or weird stuff about 28% of the time.

Spenda, its a 3 way sort-of 3bet pot so even if i check flop and bet turn pushing river is still pot sized or there abouts so i dont need to bet the flop to get the money in by the river, although if this were a simple raised pot i would have to bet flop to get it in
Also, if opp raises any flop bet i can push and be happy im not making a significant error of any type (this is perhaps the mistake in the hand, but i know results which could make that idea biased)
But my real concern is that his range is polarised toward big hands, eg TT+ AK+ which i feel means my hand is well hidden and i have a huge chance of a big payoff when opp is too committed to the pot with AK on a flushy river or JJJ.
Also, i need to be able to float this flop with both AAA and nothing so opp knows im capable of taking these sorts of flops away from him in position. My original thought was that i could float and steal (ie he has KK/QQ) and also that i didnt need to bet to play for stacks by the river
What is really scary is that opp doesnt bet the flop but c/c's the turn and by the river only two of his most likely hands have not boated up and one cannot call a river bet (QQ) AK can call river and calls a push IMO.
But, AA/KK/JJ (and i think JJ +AK are his most likely holdings considering the bad preflop) are now all boated up.
If i pokerstove a range of AA/KK/JJ/AK which would all bet river like this IMO i have 50% equity against that range making it an easy call.

I wouldnt polarise his range so much if he was a total fish, but hes just a bad wannabe TAGG who is probably playing 200nl after some MTT win after playing 25nl for ages.

[sauce123]

if i was playing my A+ game i might fold

if i was playing my A+ game i might shove

If i was playing my B game id call

[Miffed22001]

if i was playing my A+ game i might fold

if i was playing my A+ game i might shove

If i was playing my B game id call

i shoved does this make me good?

[jackvance]

I'd rather fold than shove, prolly call to be on the safe side.

Actually I really don't get a shove.. you're not folding out better hands and no worse hands are calling imo. You'd need to have a crazy image of constant thin value bets and bluffs.. otherwise it's pointless.

[benny999]

i agree w/ sauce, i either push or fold. this is a bluff almost never so i don't like just calling.
if there are any worse hands, then i ship the last $70 in. eg if he played AK this way theres still no way he folds imo.

but this looks too much like a donk with a nut hand (boat maybe QTss)...so i say fold.

[Galapogos]

I'd rather fold than shove, prolly call to be on the safe side.

Actually I really don't get a shove.. you're not folding out better hands and no worse hands are calling imo. You'd need to have a crazy image of constant thin value bets and bluffs.. otherwise it's pointless.

I think he means shove as a bluff. I don't think this guy is playing anything he can bluffed off of though.

[bode]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18 games 0.005 secs 3,600 games/sec

Board: 6d As Js 6h Ks
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { 7s6s }
Hand 1: 50.000% 50.00% 00.00% 9 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AdAh, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, JcJd, JcJh, JdJh, AcKc, AdKd, AhKh, AcKd, AcKh, AdKc, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd }

i was really surprised at the equities here. I call getting 2.6:1.

[Miffed22001]

He had JJ

[Genitruc]

haven t read any replies to not be biased

I'd just toss this pretty quickly

[Genitruc]

lol of course the post right above mine makes me look like a douchebag

[Miffed22001]

haven t read any replies to not be biased

I'd just toss this pretty quickly

why toss?
i was surprised you hadnt replied yet because you normally like these being laggy...

[Genitruc]

idiot min reraise pre usually = big hand

check into 2 opp's after getting called on scary board = tarp

lead river after villain (you) builds the pot reeks of AA

I don't think shoving is bad or anything, but this line vs a donk just reeks of massive strength. I am actually surprised he didn't show up with AA here.

[jackvance]

I'd rather fold than shove, prolly call to be on the safe side.

Actually I really don't get a shove.. you're not folding out better hands and no worse hands are calling imo. You'd need to have a crazy image of constant thin value bets and bluffs.. otherwise it's pointless.

I think he means shove as a bluff. I don't think this guy is playing anything he can bluffed off of though.

I took it to mean for value. We already have a flush, if villain has anything stronger we're not getting him to fold it..