6,5$: Push over or fold it, ICM question

[Stripclubjunkie]

Full Tilt Poker Game #7563667946: $6 + $0.50 Sit & Go (Turbo) (57539563), Table 1 - 80/160 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:14:27 ET - 2008/08/08
Seat 1: MJA11 (1,944)
Seat 3: Stanley Jenkins (2,661)
Seat 4: spaz00 (1,935)
Seat 5: Stripclubjunkie (1,115)
Seat 7: NVsanya (4,215)
Seat 8: dairyguy (1,630)
NVsanya posts the small blind of 80
dairyguy posts the big blind of 160
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Stripclubjunkie [Ac Js]
MJA11 folds
Stanley Jenkins folds
spaz00 raises to 480
Hero?

Push / fold?

Strip

edit: bad hh.

[Stripclubjunkie]

THX TO TAIPAN FOR ICM GUIDE


1. Opp hand range: 14,5 % or is that too little?
77+,A9s+,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KTo+,QJo

2.
a. Hero folds to the raise: 1115 / 9%
b. Hero pushes and opp folds: 1595 / 12,5%
c. Hero pushes, opp calls and Hero wins: 2230 /17,8%
d. Hero pushes, opp calls and Hero loses: 0 / 0%

3. See #2!

4. Opp is raising 77-AA (8 x 6 possible way of getting dealt them = 48)
Opp is raising 9 unpaired hands (9 x 16 =144)
Opp is raising 192 hands.

-He will call a push with 99-AA (6 * 6 =36 )
And AK,AQ,AJ(remember i have AJ),KQ,KJ,AT. (5 * 16 = 96, +1 * 9 coz I have a AJ right?)
[/b]
So he will call with 89 hands and fold 55. So opp will fold to a push, 55/144 = 38,19%

5. So as taipan say use PokerStove, Heros AJ is 46,6% to win against Opp call range.

6. Hero’s overall share of the prize pool if Hero pushes:
- 38,19% of the time opp folds and Hero’s stack is worth 12,5% of prize pool.
-(61,81% * 46,6%) =28,8% of the time opp calls and Hero wins so Hero’s stack is worth 17.8% of the prize pool.
-(61,81% * 53,39%) =33% of the time opp calls and Hero loses so Hero is out.

So Hero’s % of the prize pool by pushing is (38,19% * 9%) + (28,8% * 17.8%) + (33% * 0) = 8,56%, which is lower than if I folded. So all in all, if I have Opp range correct this is a fold! I never thought this.

There is a few errors im sure. Please let me know

[taipan168]

I ran this hand through SNG Wiz and got very similar results to you, so you must have done the calculation right

One thing about your ranges - although your open raise range seems fine, I suspect that opp will call with most hands that he is raising due to the pot odds that he will receive to call your shove. He has to call 635 to win 1835 so he's getting about 2.9 to 1 pot odds. This makes your shove more -EV.

[Nakamura]

These are always difficult spots. You're quite short on chips but at the same time not completely desperate if you fold. As Taipan says your opponent should actually be prepared to race here if you push over. I'd fold here and look for a spot to be first into a hand with the next decent hand.

[Stripclubjunkie]

These are always difficult spots. You're quite short on chips but at the same time not completely desperate if you fold. As Taipan says your opponent should actually be prepared to race here if you push over. I'd fold here and look for a spot to be first into a hand with the next decent hand.

Yeah I realized, thoughts this was a easy push, thats what I love about ICM - makes one realize stuff.

[Stripclubjunkie]

6.5 sng, BB is 80, 7 people left, I have QQ UTG +1 with 1500 and raise to 400, unknown in middle position shoves for 2700. Ofc the rest folds.

What should I do?

What range do you think Opp would push with? Would like to know what u think before I do the ICM calc.
TT+,AQs+,AQo+?
4,7 %

[Stripclubjunkie]

1 & 2.- Hero folds to the push: 9,2%
- Hero calls the push and wins: 21,4%
- Hero calls the push and loses (in many cases this means that Hero is out) 0%

3. 9,2% / 21,4% = 43%

4. 55%

So according to ICM this a clear call, unless my hand range is way off.

ICM ftw