Hand vs winning nit

[gametight]

Villain is xxvinivicixx 11/9/3.6 and a winning reg

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($116.15)
UTG+1 ($121.20)
MP1 ($103.15)
MP2 ($49.30)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($50.85)
Button ($100)
SB ($106.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 bets $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, MP2 calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) K, 7, 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets $8, Hero calls $8, 1 fold

Turn: ($28.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: ($28.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $23, MP3 raises $88 (All-In), Hero ??

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

[aka_red]

call.
also whats your turn plan.

[DoanDiggy]

I hate these "WTF?" moments. No hand really makes sense for villain here except KQ, T9s/J9ss/JTss, and maaaybe 33 or QQ.

The hand depends a lot on MP2, actually... how bad is he? This greatly affects MP3's preflop range as well as his flop betting range. Against 2 solid/aggressive opponents, betting QQ on this flop could be bad, but if MP2 is fishy you are unlikely to play back without a hand and betting here is pretty +EV.

What are your stats like i.e. what is he putting you on? After the flop he could feasibly put you on KTs+, KQo, T9s, 65s, and sets... he should probably be betting like $20 here with his monsters? If you're tighter your range looks more like KJs+/T9s/sets, and checking behind the turn with KK/88/77/33/AK/KQ/QQ could be good to trap/get more value on the river/pot control.

My first inclination is that he is taking a pot control line on the turn and then hit the river with KQ or QQ, as impossibly unlikely as that seems. Your river bet is pretty strong... what could he possibly be trying to make you fold?

Pretty gross unless you've seen this guy make a big bluff even once.

[badgers]

wow this is gay

he probably has QQ but his line makes so little sense that I want to call. But vini doesn't bluff much and I can't see him raising KQ for value since we can have 77/88 and he knows his own image.

Obviously his line is fairly nonsensical but I think he knows this and wouldn't bluff here. It would be such a wacky bluff and that is complete out of character for vini so I think it's a fold.

[Pelion]

Im not massively sure what hands make sense from which positions with FR stats. Would he fold KQ preflop from this position? It definitly looks like KQ/QQ/bluff, and bluffs given the line and the fact hes a winning nit just arent likely at all.

[DoanDiggy]

An good 11/9 could definitely be isolating a single (especially bad) limper wider than his stats might indicate, especially from the HJ with tightish players behind him.

Someone could easily have a raising range like the following and look like an 11/9 or tighter:

EP: TT+, AQs+, AKo (3.8%)
MP/SB: 88+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ (6.5%)
HJ/iso-1: 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KQo (11.8%)
steal: 22+, A8s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo (21.6%)

After crunching some numbers, this came out to about a 7% PFR overall, depending on table conditions, so there's even room for Villain's range to be a little bit wider than the indicated HJ/iso-1 range above. (I meant this range to indicate the hands that would open-raise the HJ or isolate a single limper from the HJ, CO, or Btn.)

[BankItDrew]

imo

sucks buddy

[rpm]

his lines makes little sense for anything but QQ or air imo (does he cbet QQ on this flop or check it for value on later streets and to avoid turning it into a bluff?) given villain is a nit who numerous people have reads on, your river lead shows strength and board texture is not particularly bluff-friendly seeing as the only viable hand which can be repped is QQ or a sneaky KK, i think i have to fold. rank spot though.

[Deanglow]

you're splitting at best, looks like a pretty simple fold

[Pelion]

you're splitting at best, looks like a pretty simple fold

This doesnt necessarily follow. Im not sure how likely KQ is here as Ive said, but if we say he will play KQ like this 100% of the time and 100% of the time he will play QQ like this then we are still splitting or losing. Even given these conditions there are so many more combos of KQ that our equity isnt terrible. We actually have 40% against a range of QQ/KQ, and we're getting better than 2:1 since the pot is big (and no more money will go in after this decision). If we think he plays KQ like this 100% of the time then its a pretty clear call.

Actually, thinking about it, there is only one combo of QQ (0% equity), so we only need 2 combos of KQ (50% equity) to average 33% equity against the range. There are 4 total combos of KQ left in the deck so he only needs to play it like this half the time for us to call. That seems pretty reasonable to me.

[badgers]

Yeah but I'm like 99% sure vini isn't raising KQ here for value, since he's nitty enough that we're never paying off with worse and he knows this. I think this is just QQ almost always which sucks and it's tough to fold when only 1 combo makes sense but this is vinivici we're talking about

[Pelion]

lol ok, personal read ftw.

[Miffed22001]

fold - he isnt yet capable of using his image to take you off a hand hence this is a pure value bet (from his own 2p2 posts) and as hes a nit he always has you crushed here

[gametight]

Thnx guys... good discussion.

Looking over the hand it seems I have a bluff catcher... and hes never bluffing.

Trippy part is he shoved 77 for flopped btm set ???

[DoanDiggy]

Wow, sexy play by him, I like it.

[Outlaw]

Villain is xxvinivicixx 11/9/3.6 and a winning reg

No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($116.15)
UTG+1 ($121.20)
MP1 ($103.15)
MP2 ($49.30)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($50.85)
Button ($100)
SB ($106.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, MP3 bets $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, MP2 calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) K, 7, 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets $8, Hero calls $8, 1 fold

Turn: ($28.50) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 checks

River: ($28.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $23, MP3 raises $88 (All-In), Hero ??

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

I think you are never good here. Its KQ at worst but more likely QQ or some kind of advanced delayed slowplay with 77/88 that is trying to induce a bluff and since AK/KQ is a huge part of your preflop calling range he thinks he might get action as you might view his play as a bluff.

[Deanglow]

Wow, sexy play by him, I like it.

Actually his turn check is pretty terrible. His river shove is fine though

[DoanDiggy]

Against a solid player? The turn check is good with position because it's almost guaranteed to get more money in the pot, and it's likely the best way to stick $88 in by the river. After checking the turn, Villain's hand looks like QQ-99 and Hero is probably value betting any K on the river.

The other possibility is to bet like $23 into $28 on the turn and then $65 into $73 on the river, but Hero's hand looks a lot like Kx and when a nit bet-bet-bets for near pot each time, I'm decently-likely to fold KQ on the turn (definitely KJ and KT), and certainly on the river (well, not this river).

The only draw Villain is remotely worried about is T9s so I don't see how a turn check is terrible at all.

gametight: What are you doing when he bets $23 on this turn? What if he checks back the turn, do you bet a river blank if you don't improve? If you don't lead the river, are you more likely to call $23 on the turn or $25 on the river? Are you ever check/calling $23 on the turn AND $65 on the river without improving?

[Deanglow]

No his turn check is not OK, ever. Big blind's hand range for c/c flop is 77, 88, 99-QQ and any K. MP should be barreling the turn with almost everything he has. And its lol that you say the only hand he is worried about is T9ss when OP HAS A HAND TO DRAW OUT WITH