100nl - ?

[Micro2Macro]

villain is total unknown, this is his first hand at the table.

how would you proceed?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($78.05)
SB ($102)
BB ($100)
UTG ($88.20)
Hero (MP1) ($172.55)
MP2 ($114.45)
CO ($148.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, J
1 fold, Hero bets $3, 4 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 2, 4, 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, BB raises to $11, Hero ?

[Carroters]

Such a bad board to bluff raise. I'd imagine this is a weak air filled range quite often, without any info I'd probably just 3-bet the flop and try to get it in vs worse flush draws, I think this is imparative given how few hands he can actually have here for value. It's likely a worse flush draw a bunch of the time imo or he folds and you win a decent pot a lot too, happy times.

[Miffed22001]

3bet shove turn or call and shove over turn bet.

100nl players hardly ever raise the nuts here 22/44 so his hand is all FDs and mid PPs imo - even if villai nis getting fancy with QQ if the stacks go in you have masses of outs and theres a likelyhood he cant fold a combo draw hand which has a lot less equity than he thinks

[BooG690]

I think I three-bet here looking to get it in against worse draws and medium pocket pairs.

He may fold his pocket pairs to a three-bet here which basically causes villain to make a mistake. WOOT.

[bikes]

I think I three-bet here looking to get it in against worse draws and medium pocket pairs.

He may fold his pocket pairs to a three-bet here which basically causes villain to make a mistake. WOOT.

I can't imagine how folding a mid pp here is a mistake.


3b/call seems quite std here.

[Micro2Macro]

If we 3bet what do you guys like for sizing?

I was thinking $25-$28 or so to make it look enough like a rebluff that we can get away from to get him to ship any worse flush draws.

[OhioRounder]

LOL if he's got deuces and has you DOA. But I doubt he'd try to raise you off the hand with the nuts on this board. Most likely a middle pair I presume. We have position and calling doesn't really define our hand too much IMO. Call or 3betting is fine. If 3betting I'd pop it around $30 to go.

[Jason]

I call and evaluate the turn. You're in position and have the nut flush draw. If he has pocket 44's or 22's, good game. When you call, you're making a very strong statement about your hand and I don't think an average thinking opponent will be thrilled about shoveling a lot more money in this pot unless they have a monster and when they don't have a monster, you might be able to take it away if your flush DOESN'T get there. Not to mention he could have any random 55-TT which means you could have more equity if an ace or jack hits. Plus a 3 or 5 gives you an additional draw to a str8.

I think raising his bet is a bad play because aside from air, which you beat with ace high and your draws, you'd be hard pressed to get an average villain to fold anything and now you're inflating the pot more and may have to make a bigger bluff later to win it. His raise PROBABLY means "I have an awful hand, please go away, you" or "I have a hand that I want to get more money in and can definitely beat ace high ... let's do this" - either way, raising the flop doesn't help with any of that range. Once you see another card AND evaluate his action, you'll be able to maximize your effort by either:

- Checking behind if he's weak and you hit to induce a bluff on the river
- OR if he's weak and you miss to bluff and take it down
- OR you think he's still strong and can crunch the pot/implied odds of continuing if he bets or check behind if you think he's lying in wait
- OR you think he's still strong and you hit and want to extract even more money with a raise/call

If you DO choose to re-raise, it's your job to calculate your fold equity and size the bet accordingly. If you raise to the size of the pot, he'll need to fold 33% of the time or MORE to be a profitable play - original pot plus your pot bet equals 2 TO his 1 bet of the original size of the pot. 2 to 1 is 33%. I personally don't think your fold equity is that high on average which is why I advocate calling and I tend to shy away from bluffs against unknowns. And, don't forget that a semi-bluff IS still a bluff and you STILL need fold equity to make it profitable against hands that are beating you and you WANT to fold.

[bikes]

$24 /call seems about right. I would cib but its FR and villian woulda automatically assume we have a 4.

[bikes]

I call and evaluate the turn. You're in position and have the nut flush draw. If he has pocket 44's or 22's, good game. When you call, you're making a very strong statement about your hand and I don't think an average thinking opponent will be thrilled about shoveling a lot more money in this pot unless they have a monster and when they don't have a monster, you might be able to take it away if your flush DOESN'T get there. Not to mention he could have any random 55-TT which means you could have more equity if an ace or jack hits. Plus a 3 or 5 gives you an additional draw to a str8.

I think raising his bet is a bad play because aside from air, which you beat with ace high and your draws, you'd be hard pressed to get an average villain to fold anything and now you're inflating the pot more and may have to make a bigger bluff later to win it. His raise PROBABLY means "I have an awful hand, please go away, you" or "I have a hand that I want to get more money in and can definitely beat ace high ... let's do this" - either way, raising the flop doesn't help with any of that range. Once you see another card AND evaluate his action, you'll be able to maximize your effort by either:

- Checking behind if he's weak and you hit to induce a bluff on the river
- OR if he's weak and you miss to bluff and take it down
- OR you think he's still strong and can crunch the pot/implied odds of continuing if he bets or check behind if you think he's lying in wait
- OR you think he's still strong and you hit and want to extract even more money with a raise/call

If you DO choose to re-raise, it's your job to calculate your fold equity and size the bet accordingly. If you raise to the size of the pot, he'll need to fold 33% of the time or MORE to be a profitable play - original pot plus your pot bet equals 2 TO his 1 bet of the original size of the pot. 2 to 1 is 33%. I personally don't think your fold equity is that high on average which is why I advocate calling and I tend to shy away from bluffs against unknowns. And, don't forget that a semi-bluff IS still a bluff and you STILL need fold equity to make it profitable against hands that are beating you and you WANT to fold.

I'm pretty sure the money in the pot eliminates the need for FE and 49.5% against TT-

[Micro2Macro]

We raise to get villain to re-bluff us with a worse draw. To show you how hugely smoked he is when he gets it in, I provide you a Pokerstove output:

Board: 4h 2h 4c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.455% 80.00% 00.45% 792 4.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 19.545% 19.09% 00.45% 189 4.50 { KhQh }


Our raise will likely induce the following to shovel:

Board: 4h 4c 2h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.377% 45.28% 00.09% 10759 22.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 54.623% 54.53% 00.09% 12956 22.50 { QQ-TT, 44, 22, KhQh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h }

We have enough equity to bet/call vs this range given the amount of money in the pot. Also keep in mind, sometimes villain will have a pure bluff like KQo and just fold. OR, if he'd like to rebluff us, he'll have 15% equity. I didn't include this in his range here, but lets say we're up against a guy who just needs to get that last bet in and will also jam any KQ combos as well as the rest of his range I provided:

Board: 4h 2h 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.568% 58.35% 00.21% 20797 76.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 41.432% 41.22% 00.21% 14690 76.50 { QQ-TT, 44, 22, KhQh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, KQo }

This range assumes he's crazy enough to have 15 combos of air to shove as a re-bluff. If he folds these hands, our raise is still +EV because he's building a pot and folding with air and when we do get it in we're flipping vs his range. 15 combo's of hopelessness sounds like a lot compared to the 4 combo's of boats he's also repping, but 15 combo's is only 1 random Broadway hand like KQ that he decides to turn into a bluff.

edit: I forgot to include KQs also in the re-bluff scenario, which would improve our equity even more. Also, all calling does is create passive dead money for this guy to take away on like 60%+ turns we're unhappy with.

[Jason]

We raise to get villain to re-bluff us with a worse draw.

There's only 9 hearts in the deck of 47 unseen cards. Due to hand combinations, a draw for villain is much less likely. I also don't think most players play a draw like that.

Even if your equity is close to 50%, which it may or may not be, if you're behind, you need fold equity - maybe just 1%, maybe more, but you need it, and players often forget that and wonder why they have variance out the ying yang because they try to push these marginal to no edge spots. The way this hand is playing out, I don't think we have much fold equity.

[!Luck]

Some poeple are very aggressive vs Button raises even if it is an unknown. I know that down in 25NL there is inherent distrust of button raises, I can only assume this goes further. I think there is plenty of hands that villain will fold to a raise like 88-jj.

[BooG690]

There's only 9 hearts in the deck of 47 unseen cards. Due to hand combinations, a draw for villain is much less likely. I also don't think most players play a draw like that.

Even if your equity is close to 50%, which it may or may not be, if you're behind, you need fold equity - maybe just 1%, maybe more, but you need it, and players often forget that and wonder why they have variance out the ying yang because they try to push these marginal to no edge spots. The way this hand is playing out, I don't think we have much fold equity.

But we gain a good amount of EV in later hands by showing this kind of hand down. We may be able to raise TPTK-type hands for value in later hands after showing this hand down.

[pokerfan]

I don't think that I'd 3 bet vs a total unknown player.Does he play aggressively with mid pairs or draws?Straightforward or tricky?Basically you have no idea about his tendencies in this situation.I definitely call here and expect him to barrel any Ace or Jack on the turn if he is truly an aggressive monkey.

[Jason]

But we gain a good amount of EV in later hands by showing this kind of hand down. We may be able to raise TPTK-type hands for value in later hands after showing this hand down.

It sounds very fancy play syndrome to play THIS hand suboptimal based on potential equity in future hands - especially the first hand in a full ring game.

[oskar]

Why is this a thread.
Would you really ever consider anything but 3b/call ? We need like 0.5% FE on this one. Calling and re-evaluating seems terrible. Most villains will shut down when the flush comes in, and even hero-fold trips. And the only thing you can bluff him off later is stuff that he would have folded to a shove anyway. + you let him improve on his bluffs by calling.

[Jason]

Why is this a thread.

Because you and I disagree and you're not the boss of poker

[dranger7070]

I can't imagine how folding a mid pp here is a mistake.

It's Sklansky ldo.

If he could see our hand, he would never fold a middle pocket pair to our raise, thus if he folds, its a mistake. Vs. our entire range, yea, its probably a mistake for him to fold it, but thats not what BooG was getting at.