100nl - ?

[Micro2Macro]

We raise to get villain to re-bluff us with a worse draw. To show you how hugely smoked he is when he gets it in, I provide you a Pokerstove output:

Board: 4h 2h 4c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.455% 80.00% 00.45% 792 4.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 19.545% 19.09% 00.45% 189 4.50 { KhQh }


Our raise will likely induce the following to shovel:

Board: 4h 4c 2h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.377% 45.28% 00.09% 10759 22.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 54.623% 54.53% 00.09% 12956 22.50 { QQ-TT, 44, 22, KhQh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h }

We have enough equity to bet/call vs this range given the amount of money in the pot. Also keep in mind, sometimes villain will have a pure bluff like KQo and just fold. OR, if he'd like to rebluff us, he'll have 15% equity. I didn't include this in his range here, but lets say we're up against a guy who just needs to get that last bet in and will also jam any KQ combos as well as the rest of his range I provided:

Board: 4h 2h 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.568% 58.35% 00.21% 20797 76.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 41.432% 41.22% 00.21% 14690 76.50 { QQ-TT, 44, 22, KhQh, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, KQo }

This range assumes he's crazy enough to have 15 combos of air to shove as a re-bluff. If he folds these hands, our raise is still +EV because he's building a pot and folding with air and when we do get it in we're flipping vs his range. 15 combo's of hopelessness sounds like a lot compared to the 4 combo's of boats he's also repping, but 15 combo's is only 1 random Broadway hand like KQ that he decides to turn into a bluff.

edit: I forgot to include KQs also in the re-bluff scenario, which would improve our equity even more. Also, all calling does is create passive dead money for this guy to take away on like 60%+ turns we're unhappy with.

[Jason]

We raise to get villain to re-bluff us with a worse draw.

There's only 9 hearts in the deck of 47 unseen cards. Due to hand combinations, a draw for villain is much less likely. I also don't think most players play a draw like that.

Even if your equity is close to 50%, which it may or may not be, if you're behind, you need fold equity - maybe just 1%, maybe more, but you need it, and players often forget that and wonder why they have variance out the ying yang because they try to push these marginal to no edge spots. The way this hand is playing out, I don't think we have much fold equity.

[BooG690]

There's only 9 hearts in the deck of 47 unseen cards. Due to hand combinations, a draw for villain is much less likely. I also don't think most players play a draw like that.

Even if your equity is close to 50%, which it may or may not be, if you're behind, you need fold equity - maybe just 1%, maybe more, but you need it, and players often forget that and wonder why they have variance out the ying yang because they try to push these marginal to no edge spots. The way this hand is playing out, I don't think we have much fold equity.

But we gain a good amount of EV in later hands by showing this kind of hand down. We may be able to raise TPTK-type hands for value in later hands after showing this hand down.

[pokerfan]

I don't think that I'd 3 bet vs a total unknown player.Does he play aggressively with mid pairs or draws?Straightforward or tricky?Basically you have no idea about his tendencies in this situation.I definitely call here and expect him to barrel any Ace or Jack on the turn if he is truly an aggressive monkey.

[Jason]

But we gain a good amount of EV in later hands by showing this kind of hand down. We may be able to raise TPTK-type hands for value in later hands after showing this hand down.

It sounds very fancy play syndrome to play THIS hand suboptimal based on potential equity in future hands - especially the first hand in a full ring game.