Do U really have to c/f this?

[ATOTHEC101]

Villain is a nitty reg, does alot of bum huntery stuff and plays very straight forward.

I feel the relative position between us pre and the amount of people to the flop strengthens his flop calling range significantly to 1010-aa and 7s full , I'm faily sure he would flat aa and specifically kk pre in this spot a decent % of the time and would fold ak to the c bet. Obviously the turns a really meh card as he'll likely fold qq-1010, when he calls I'm somewhat worried. River now means we lose to jj as well, so I check...




Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($1082)
SB ($407.25)
Hero (BB) ($1000)
UTG ($1169)
MP ($2205.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, 2
Hero bets $30, UTG+1 calls $30, CO calls $30, 1 fold, BB calls $20


Flop: ($125) 2, 7, 2 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $80, UTG+1 calls $80, 2 folds


Turn: ($285) K (2 players)
Hero bets $190, UTG+1 calls $190


River: ($665) J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $450,

The only problem I see in folding here is that he would bet aa for value but I do have a blocker to that hand, and that's really the only value hand I beat.