100nl AKs 3handed (postflop)

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

[Obv I am not a strong 3handed player]

This time BTN is a mega mtblr who has a 1BB/100 winrate over 2.5M hands. Recently he's been playing back at me more in sessions, though historically he has played very snug and let's me 3bet him all day.

PF and flop are std. I really want to fold to his turn shove for three reasons. If I had an Ace I don't think he expects me to fold, my range is polarized when I bet the turn (maybe I'm wrong?), and he's mega mtbling and he's less likely to be getting out of line.

I don't think he'd shove with a pair+draw here and that's a key assumption that could also be wrong.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (BB) ($100)
Button ($103)
SB ($106.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K
Button bets $3, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, Button calls $6

Flop: ($18.50) Q, 8, J (2 players)
Hero bets $11, Button calls $11

Turn: ($40.50) A (2 players)
Hero bets $26, Button raises to $83 (All-In), Hero..

[griffey24]

I would fold this. This board is pretty damn crappy, I would just c/f flop really.

As played, there are very few hands worse than ours that would shove the turn instead of just flatting. The only I can think of is maybe 78,89cc type hands that are trying to get you off a better pair.

[meeloche]

I would fold this. This board is pretty damn crappy, I would just c/f flop really.

this for me as well

[Micro2Macro]

bdfd, gutter and not so clean overs. meh, I don't really want to fold. I think you should cbet, otherwise what air do you bet flop with?

[jyms]

I only Cbet the air here when I 3bet pre with air. He's not folding much on this flop that calls a 3bet pre, but yes we have some equity vs those hands. He'll call bets when we catch up.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'd cbet flop for sure, you have to good of a hand to waste c/fing. You'll get enough folds by low pps and you'll be able to double and triple some run outs.

Turn is pretty marginal. I feel like small bet turn is better. I'd fold as played.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

cool i did fold, it felt gross tho so just wanted to make sure it was pro lol

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

i was thinking about this hand when walking around today and maybe there's merit to c/c'ing flop if OPP was the type to stab once and give up. however against this particular player i think b/f flop is optimal since he is going to play his pairs 77- straightforwardly and will have a low bluff raise%

[griffey24]

If he's folding a lot of 3bets, I would c/f this flop. He has mostly hads like KQ/AQ/AJ/KJ/JT etc which are not folding this flop.

If he's calling a lot of 3bets and has a low more lower SC's and low pairs, then I don't mind betting as much.

This board pounds the range of someone that is folding a lot of 3bets and then calls though, imo.

[Micro2Macro]

if we decide not to bet AsKs here, don't you think it's going to be very easy to play against us when we are NEVER bluffing?

[griffey24]

if we decide not to bet AsKs here, don't you think it's going to be very easy to play against us when we are NEVER bluffing?

How is villain going to know we're never bluffing here?

If we're so worried about c/f, then we can just add stronger hands to our c/c range, if we're worried about being exploited somehow.

[pocketfours]

+1 for c/f flop. I would bet KTs/K9s/T7s/97s instead, don't know if OP has those in his range though. Would also c/f turn as played.

[Micro2Macro]

well we have somewhere between 20-30% equity here vs his range.

if we cbet 1/2p it only needs to work 33% assuming we had no equity. but we do so that will significantly lower the % we need him to fold for cbetting to be +EV.

[pocketfours]

I think he folds less than 10% of the time to that bet, which could be fine but then we def need to barrel.

[griffey24]

My problem with cbetting this particular hand is also that we have no idea where we stand on "good cards" for us. Seems pretty bad when we're only happy with a turned T.

Is an ace good? a king? We might have equity vs his range, but we have some solid reverse implied odds on a lot of our 'outs' as well.

[Micro2Macro]

spades

[nutsinho]

+1 for c/f flop. I would bet KTs/K9s/T7s/97s instead.

care to explain? this seems wrong...

[pocketfours]

care to explain? this seems wrong...

Those hands have less SDV and better IO (KTs/T7s) when they hit. Lots of villains check down suited aces at these stakes.

Please correct my thinking.

[griffey24]

spades

I think spades are more beneficial on boards like Tc8s4d where a lot of his flop calling range will fold to a turn barrel on some random 2s turn or something (all low pockets, 67, QJ, all floats etc).

This depends largely on reads, but what hands do you think are calling flop on this board and then folding turn? Even worse if this is the type of villain who shoves his turn continuing range instead of just flatting - which it seems he might be.

[jyms]

I'm sure OP has hands that are polarized for 3betting so it's not like we are never Cbetting here. I just think AKs is a strong part of our range and Cbetting is going to make the turn barrel scary as griffey has stated. I just don't like what our wide 3bet range looks like vs a guy who's not played back and has called this time. I like P4's thoughts on hands to continue with because those are the types of hands I polarize with pre

[Numbr2intheWorld]

I think you def bet the flop, I'd rather c/f the turn though, seems like you're overplaying against a player like this.

[IowaSkinsFan]

+1 for c/f flop. I would bet KTs/K9s/T7s/97s instead, don't know if OP has those in his range though. Would also c/f turn as played.

Not talking about KT, you think hands that can make worse pairs, worse flushes, and worse straights are better hands to bet?

[Micro2Macro]

I think you def bet the flop, I'd rather c/f the turn though, seems like you're overplaying against a player like this.

+1 to this

[nutsinho]

T7s has more implied odds? dont get it. obv we are happy betting KTs, but AK is almost uniformly better to bet than the other hands. The hands you are beating with AK tend to take stabs when checked to and 22-77 tend to check down but would always just fold to a flop bet. I would bet all of the hands you listed often with the intention of triple barreling vs many opponents, but AK w/ backdoor is 100% bet here. reverse implied odds dont hurt us all that much when we spike pairs unless we are v bad hand readers or up against very strong opponents

[pocketfours]

Ok, KT has better IO, not T7. The assumption that villain stabs with worse aces of course makes this hand a bet. I'd say a lot of players would be happy to just be allowed their equity with those hands but I could be wrong about that.

A lot of hands also get checked back on the flop which is kinda nice for the c/f plan as well. But ok we bet the flop, now do we barrel 2d type turns and do we c/f A/K turns?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Ok, KT has better IO, not T7. The assumption that villain stabs with worse aces of course makes this hand a bet. I'd say a lot of players would be happy to just be allowed their equity with those hands but I could be wrong about that.

A lot of hands also get checked back on the flop which is kinda nice for the c/f plan as well. But ok we bet the flop, now do we barrel 2d type turns and do we c/f A/K turns?

You make too many assumptions about and focus way too much about what our opponent is doing. Stabs with worse aces? The reason we cbet AK here with a backdoor flush draw and gutshot has more to do with what fits in what our optimal ranges are here. I think without a doubt what is optimal here is to 3 barrel bluff some of the time. With all other options for AK being 0 EV i.e. c/f, you absolutely bet it here and make it the first hand you'd 3 barrel bluff as a holding on blank runouts and some others. I doubt there is any reasonable opponent you would play that would make cbetting with AK here not the most +EV decision.

[pocketfours]

You make too many assumptions about and focus way too much about what our opponent is doing.

I'm not making assumptions of any kind. I was simply stating that the bluffing frequencies of villain affect the expectation of checkfolding AK in this spot, which might not be obvious to everyone.

With all other options for AK being 0 EV i.e. c/f, you absolutely bet it here

This statement is ridiculous and completely false.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think he folds less than 10% of the time to that bet, which could be fine but then we def need to barrel.

Lots of villains check down suited aces at these stakes.

The assumption that villain stabs with worse aces of course makes this hand a bet.

All of these are assumptions about what our opponent is going to do.

I'm not saying its bad to think about what our opponent is doing, but its not the first and most important thing I think about or think you should think about when deciding the correct decision on a hand. I believe people tend to overrate their ability to decipher someones hand range, so all the focus on adjusting to these guesses based on loose description becomes a waste of attention.

The most important thing is what is optimal here and the clear answers is bet for a variety of reasons. I do not think c/fing is good here because this would mean that we are not betting here as a bluff whatsoever as a cbet and consequently a two or 3 barrel because AKs is the best hand to do any of the former actions as a bluff. And not bluffing here is a too extreme adjustment based on too little information and assumptions.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'm not making assumptions of any kind. I was simply stating that the bluffing frequencies of villain affect the expectation of checkfolding AK in this spot, which might not be obvious to everyone.

Fair enough I wasn't trying to criticize.

This statement is ridiculous and completely false.

Maybe I should have said our next best decision is 0 EV. I think without a doubt c/f flop, bet turn some turns and rivers would be -EV in this spot because our range here is going to prescribe to our opponent calling down light to either play. If its +EV its not as much as cbetting flop for reasons I have written previously.

[pocketfours]

Maybe I should have said our next best decision is 0 EV.

Just c/f down is always going to show a significant positive expectation as long as we are drawing live. We will have an even higher expectation if we make attempts to put more money in on the turn/river when we improve.

An alternative strategy of triple barreling will show a strong positive expectation vs some types of players (mostly the type who never folds any pair or draw to a flop bet or turn barrel but folds hands as strong as AQ to a river shove) and a strong negative expectation vs others (for instance the type of player who will call you down with JT).

It is impossible to know whether EV(triple) > EV(c/f) without knowing the tendencies of your opponent. Therefore in order to figure out the best play (in a vacuum), we should make some assumptions about the tendenices of this opponent and discuss how they affect the two competing strategies.

I'm well aware that making assumptions about the tendencies of this villain isn't going to help us create a good balanced strategy for this spot, but that's not what I'm trying to accomplish.

the focus on adjusting to these guesses based on loose description becomes a waste of attention

I'd say it's pretty important to learn how to create exploitative strategies based on your assumptions of how villain plays. Saying that something is a waste of attention is just adding to the noise/signal ratio and accomplishes nothing.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Just c/f down is always going to show a significant positive expectation as long as we are drawing live. We will have an even higher expectation if we make attempts to put more money in on the turn/river when we improve.

An alternative strategy of triple barreling will show a strong positive expectation vs some types of players (mostly the type who never folds any pair or draw to a flop bet or turn barrel but folds hands as strong as AQ to a river shove) and a strong negative expectation vs others (for instance the type of player who will call you down with JT).

Fine, you're right about this. I tend to be an idiot when it comes to specifics like this.

It is impossible to know whether EV(triple) > EV(c/f) without knowing the tendencies of your opponent.

This isn't true. If we can figure out if EV(triple) is the more optimal strategy than it is more +EV than c/f. Our opponents tendencies can make us decide to deviate from the optimal strategy by trying to maximally exploit your opponents strategy. In this specific spot were still going to do the same thing vs 99% of opponents with AKs because of how strongly it optimally fits into our two and 3 barrel range.

Therefore in order to figure out the best play (in a vacuum), we should make some assumptions about the tendenices of this opponent and discuss how they affect the two competing strategies.
This is certainly useful.

I'm well aware that making assumptions about the tendencies of this villain isn't going to help us create a good balanced strategy for this spot, but that's not what I'm trying to accomplish.

I'd say it's pretty important to learn how to create exploitative strategies based on your assumptions of how villain plays. Saying that something is a waste of attention is just adding to the noise/signal ratio and accomplishes nothing.

I'm saying it's a waste of attention because it's a waste of attention. I'm not trying to exaggerate to increase noise or signal, there is no alterior motive. Ideally, I think finding out what's optimal is the most important aspect of poker, and helps tremendously when deciding how to adjust in vacuum situations.

[Ravageur]

I'm kind of scared to disagree with P4s, but I don't understand or agree with c/folding the flop. I get that it's more transparent when we bink and not as disguised as some other random gutters, but we still have so many outs/good barrel cards that this seems like the perfect spot to c-bet when villain's range is so heavily weighted to medium pairs that we're giving the pot to and from which we will win so much from with 2 barrels.

[pocketfours]

I'm kind of scared to disagree with P4s, but I don't understand or agree with c/folding the flop. I get that it's more transparent when we bink and not as disguised as some other random gutters, but we still have so many outs/good barrel cards that this seems like the perfect spot to c-bet when villain's range is so heavily weighted to medium pairs that we're giving the pot to and from which we will win so much from with 2 barrels.

Haha you don't have to as I already changed my mind if you look closely.

But ok we bet the flop, now do we barrel 2d type turns and do we c/f A/K turns?

[griffey24]

Yah I'm being converted. I'm now taking the stance of "in general I feel like this is a bad board to cbet, but if we're going to cbet as a semi-bluff it might as well be with AKss"

[Alexos]

Once we bet the flop I think we should barrel turn A/K since we get him to call with a lot of pair + draw type hands. I'd jam blank rivers too, c/f Q,J,9