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 Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
Maybe I should have said our next best decision is 0 EV.
Just c/f down is always going to show a significant positive expectation as long as we are drawing live. We will have an even higher expectation if we make attempts to put more money in on the turn/river when we improve.
An alternative strategy of triple barreling will show a strong positive expectation vs some types of players (mostly the type who never folds any pair or draw to a flop bet or turn barrel but folds hands as strong as AQ to a river shove) and a strong negative expectation vs others (for instance the type of player who will call you down with JT).
It is impossible to know whether EV(triple) > EV(c/f) without knowing the tendencies of your opponent. Therefore in order to figure out the best play (in a vacuum), we should make some assumptions about the tendenices of this opponent and discuss how they affect the two competing strategies.
I'm well aware that making assumptions about the tendencies of this villain isn't going to help us create a good balanced strategy for this spot, but that's not what I'm trying to accomplish.
Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
the focus on adjusting to these guesses based on loose description becomes a waste of attention
I'd say it's pretty important to learn how to create exploitative strategies based on your assumptions of how villain plays. Saying that something is a waste of attention is just adding to the noise/signal ratio and accomplishes nothing.
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