folded KK 3 bet pot on flop after c bet

[TheLongGrind]

viallain is running a solid 7/7 ( 50 hands) . opened 7% utg out of 45 hands. i'm definately valuebetting the flop but when he overshoves my bet instantly i felt like i could only beat AQ or ATs, KTs + but i don't think he would flat a 3 bet pre unless he holds like JJ+ AK+

so i folded pretty quickly figuring i'm almost always beat here.

agreed?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($1.76)
UTG ($5.11)
MP ($7.61)
Hero (CO) ($10.85)
Button ($1.83)
SB ($1.26)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
UTG bets $0.15, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) Q, 7, J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.69, UTG raises to $4.66 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $2.35 | Rake: $0.11

[OngBonga]

I'd say you're beat some 100% of the time. I doubt a 7/7 plays AQ like this, he can only beat AK and it's not calling this shove, it would be a crazy move. No, this looks like a set trying to protect from a draw and extract maximum value from KK/AA, which he assumes you won't fold. So fucking fold.

Just a note, you keep posting results with your hands, you should omit these because it influences the discussion. Delete the bit where it says "Hero folds" and replace it with "Hero???".

[TheLongGrind]

sorry bout that i gues i need to delete my last action in hh right after conversion

[OngBonga]

sorry bout that i gues i need to delete my last action in hh right after conversion

Yeah exactly. You'll get much more from the discussion if you don't post the result. There's nothing wrong with telling people what your action was as the thread is dying, like after you've got input from people, but generally it's best to wait until everyone who wants to contribute has done so.

[daviddem]

Even if he does this ONLY with AhKh, he is still a 55% favorite. You have 38% pot odds (before rake).

However if he also does it with just ONE combo of QQ or JJ, your equity plummets to 28.5%

So fold, but it really smells like AhKh...

@Onbonga, we don't have many suited hearts in our range at all, and also no OESD, so not many strong draws, so why would he play his set like this instead of trying to get value from it by raising a more reasonable amount? But it's true you cannot exclude that he *might* do that, and as I said just one combo makes us significant underdogs...

[OngBonga]

@Onbonga, we don't have many suited hearts in our range at all, and also no OESD, so not many strong draws, so why would he play his set like this instead of trying to get value from it by raising a more reasonable amount?

I guess my hunch is he has a set and thinks we have KK/AA and won't fold if he shoves, plus since we have AKhearts in our range (assuming he doesn't have it of course) there is value here too, we might call thinking overcards are good as well as hearts. I'm not sure a 7/7 does this as a semi-bluff very often at all, he should realise he's still in bad shape against KK/AA and that he doesn't have a great deal of fold equity against such hands. I wonder what hero's image at this table is? Does villain think hero can fold KK/AA? Does villain have us on a wider range than QQ+ AK? This is the micros, KK/AA rarely get folded. I'm not sure villain is trying to induce a fold, I think he's trying to induce a call, he thinks we have a hand that we won't fold. I really don't think he has AQ, I suspect he c/c or b/f this. I think the only hand he can have that we beat is AKhearts, and I don't think he shoves into a likely overpair with this.

[OngBonga]

And even if he does have AKh in his range...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

16,830 games 0.005 secs 3,366,000 games/sec

Board: Qh 7d Jh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.128% 12.29% 02.83% 2069 477.00 { KcKd }
Hand 1: 84.872% 82.04% 02.83% 13807 477.00 { JJ+, 77, AhKh }


---

We need him to have all combos of AQ, then we have >40%, if he's a loose-aggressive donk then we can add crap like KQ etc and this is an easy call. A 7/7 never has KQ and rarely has AQ imo.

[TheLongGrind]

[QUOTE=OngBonga;2008428] Does villain think hero can fold KK/AA? Does villain have us on a wider range than QQ+ AK?

no definately not , i was playing very tight , currently testing the sauce guide ' sauce's simple guide to beat 6 max' . i hadn't been out of line at all , hadn't 3 bet yet on that table in 50 hands so i had a pretty straight forward image

[Stacks]

i'm definately valuebetting the flop

flat a 3 bet pre unless he holds like JJ+ AK+

Board: Qh 7d Jh
Dead:

equity
Hand 0: 33.971% { KcKd }
Hand 1: 66.029% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

[daviddem]

I guess my hunch is he has a set and thinks we have KK/AA and won't fold if he shoves, plus since we have AKhearts in our range (assuming he doesn't have it of course) there is value here too, we might call thinking overcards are good as well as hearts. I'm not sure a 7/7 does this as a semi-bluff very often at all, he should realise he's still in bad shape against KK/AA and that he doesn't have a great deal of fold equity against such hands. I wonder what hero's image at this table is? Does villain think hero can fold KK/AA? Does villain have us on a wider range than QQ+ AK? This is the micros, KK/AA rarely get folded. I'm not sure villain is trying to induce a fold, I think he's trying to induce a call, he thinks we have a hand that we won't fold. I really don't think he has AQ, I suspect he c/c or b/f this. I think the only hand he can have that we beat is AKhearts, and I don't think he shoves into a likely overpair with this.

Note that AhKh IS a slight favorite over AA or KK but calling would be OK if we knew 100% that's what he has (but we don't), because of pot odds.

What else than shoving is he ever going to do with AhKh on this board? Call and brick the turn? Fold?

Now I'll give you that it's not impossible that he does it with a set. But if he is not stupid and he thinks his opp is not a donk, it's pretty bad because he should realize that there is a good chance that a thinking opponent will find a fold here with an overpair. So he misses a lot of value doing that with a set.

[daviddem]

Board: Qh 7d Jh
Dead:

equity
Hand 0: 33.971% { KcKd }
Hand 1: 66.029% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Hand't caught that, I still have a long way to go before these things become obvious to me at a glance, damn it!

I think we should discount AA and KK though, but even then it's not 50%. And it's also far from sure that he calls with most of his AK's.

Board: Qh 7d Jh
Dead:

Hand 0: 56.566% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.434% { KcKd }

[Stacks]

Hand't caught that, I still have a long way to go before these things become obvious to me at a glance, damn it!

I think we should discount AA and KK though, but even then it's not 50%. And it's also far from sure that he calls with most of his AK's.

Board: Qh 7d Jh
Dead:

Hand 0: 56.566% { QQ-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.434% { KcKd }

Was just pointing out that if that is the range he put him on, then I don't see how betting this flop is "definitely" for value.

I think villain is going to be a bit more likely to call the 3bet OOP preflop with QQ/JJ than he is KK-AA (because I think he 4bets these somewhat often here). As with AK, no idea how the nit would think here with that hand.

[daviddem]

Sorry, I misphrased that. I meant that on top of us being behind his range, it is far from sure that he calls a flop bet with his AK's, so as you said, we can't bet the flop for value.

[spoonitnow]

Call pre imo

[OngBonga]

Note that AhKh IS a slight favorite over AA or KK but calling would be OK if we knew 100% that's what he has (but we don't), because of pot odds.

What else than shoving is he ever going to do with AhKh on this board? Call and brick the turn? Fold?

Now I'll give you that it's not impossible that he does it with a set. But if he is not stupid and he thinks his opp is not a donk, it's pretty bad because he should realize that there is a good chance that a thinking opponent will find a fold here with an overpair. So he misses a lot of value doing that with a set.

I had to stove AKh against AA/KK on this board to see that you are indeed correct (only just over 50%), I figured AKh would be like 45%ish against an overpair in this spot. However, villain cannot discount QQ (assuming he has AKh, not QQ!), which brings his equity down to 45%. Shoving AKh here is marginal, he's obviously never getting QQ to fold, so he's only got fold equity against the part of our range he's slight favourite against anyway, a flip that is so close it would not be a mistake for AA or KK to call. So if he's jamming AKh here, he's getting it in with very little long-term profit, if any. His profit is coming from his fold equity against AA/KK, and the dead money when we call. Compare that to the reverse implied odds of running into QQ, and it's gonna be close.

Still, I do accept he might have AKh here, but I don't think he ever has AQ, nor any other AK, so it's still a fold, because against sets and AKh we're in really terrible shape.

Also, I'm not suggesting it's a good play if he has a set, but at $5nl where folding KK/AA overpairs just doesn't happen, I can see a nitty tagg ejaculating over this flop with a set thinking hero is never folding KK/AA. It's not how I'd play a set here, but a lot of people will just c/r all in on this kind of board with a set, and it's usually either the people who play very few hands or the maniacs who have been shoving a lot anyway imo.

[spoonitnow]

Call pre imo

3-betting pre and checking this flop is probably ok too

[daviddem]

I had to stove AKh against AA/KK on this board to see that you are indeed correct (only just over 50%), I figured AKh would be like 45%ish against an overpair in this spot. However, villain cannot discount QQ (assuming he has AKh, not QQ!), which brings his equity down to 45%. Shoving AKh here is marginal, he's obviously never getting QQ to fold, so he's only got fold equity against the range he's slight favourite against anyway, a flip that is so close it would not be a mistake for AA or KK to call. So if he's jamming AKh here, he's getting it in with very little long-term profit, if any. His profit is coming from his fold equity against AA/KK, and even then it's pretty much just the dead money. Compare that to the reverse implied odds of running into QQ, and it's gonna be close.

AhKh has 45% equity vs QQ+. So he needs only a tiny bit of fold equity to make the play profitable. It's a good exercise to do the math and calculate the exact % of the time he has to get a fold to make the play +EV. Try it. Personally, I shove AhKh all day long vs QQ+ here if I think that there is even a small chance that my opp would think for a few seconds before mashing the call button with KK.

OP sorry for the hijack, back in line.

[Stacks]

Call pre imo

this too lol. I should have started there instead of the flop bet.

[OngBonga]

AhKh has 45% equity vs QQ+. So he needs only a tiny bit of fold equity to make the play profitable. It's a good exercise to do the math and calculate the exact % of the time he has to get a fold to make the play +EV. Try it. Personally, I shove AhKh all day long vs QQ+ here if I think that there is even a small chance that my opp would think for a few seconds before mashing the call button with KK.

OP sorry for the hijack, back in line.

The more I think about this hand, the more I realise there's not much other way to play AKh here. The only problem villain has with this tactic is if we always fold KK and always call AA. Villain has only 40% equity against AA/QQ, he needs us to be either calling KK or folding AA. I suppose AA folds a non-zero amount of times, and KK calls a non-zero amount of times, so with the dead money shoving AKh must be +ev against a range of QQ+. Having said that, I'm sure there are many people good enough to always fold KK here and always call AA, I'm just not convinced about this at $5nl. At higher levels, I think this would be a -ev shove with AKh.

Interesting hand. Sorry is it hijacking if we talk from villain's perspective instead? Should we not be thinking about what range villain has us on? It sure helps me know what to do in this spot... fold KK and call AA/QQ, that way villain made a mistake, thus he has been exploited.

[OngBonga]

Oh wait, calling AA is not good if he has sets in his range as well as AKh, which of course he does. There are definitely people out there who would take this line with sets. I think we can only call QQ, in which case it's a great move with AKh. Think we need to know how he plays sets before we can call this with AA.

[PokerWang]

It was a good fold. He definitely has you beat more often than no so it was a good laydown.

[gotigers1234]

I would bet this guy hit a set. Prob JJ or he is donking with AK h. I would fold this all the time... unless I was on tilt