folded KK 3 bet pot on flop after c bet

[daviddem]

I guess my hunch is he has a set and thinks we have KK/AA and won't fold if he shoves, plus since we have AKhearts in our range (assuming he doesn't have it of course) there is value here too, we might call thinking overcards are good as well as hearts. I'm not sure a 7/7 does this as a semi-bluff very often at all, he should realise he's still in bad shape against KK/AA and that he doesn't have a great deal of fold equity against such hands. I wonder what hero's image at this table is? Does villain think hero can fold KK/AA? Does villain have us on a wider range than QQ+ AK? This is the micros, KK/AA rarely get folded. I'm not sure villain is trying to induce a fold, I think he's trying to induce a call, he thinks we have a hand that we won't fold. I really don't think he has AQ, I suspect he c/c or b/f this. I think the only hand he can have that we beat is AKhearts, and I don't think he shoves into a likely overpair with this.

Note that AhKh IS a slight favorite over AA or KK but calling would be OK if we knew 100% that's what he has (but we don't), because of pot odds.

What else than shoving is he ever going to do with AhKh on this board? Call and brick the turn? Fold?

Now I'll give you that it's not impossible that he does it with a set. But if he is not stupid and he thinks his opp is not a donk, it's pretty bad because he should realize that there is a good chance that a thinking opponent will find a fold here with an overpair. So he misses a lot of value doing that with a set.

[OngBonga]

Note that AhKh IS a slight favorite over AA or KK but calling would be OK if we knew 100% that's what he has (but we don't), because of pot odds.

What else than shoving is he ever going to do with AhKh on this board? Call and brick the turn? Fold?

Now I'll give you that it's not impossible that he does it with a set. But if he is not stupid and he thinks his opp is not a donk, it's pretty bad because he should realize that there is a good chance that a thinking opponent will find a fold here with an overpair. So he misses a lot of value doing that with a set.

I had to stove AKh against AA/KK on this board to see that you are indeed correct (only just over 50%), I figured AKh would be like 45%ish against an overpair in this spot. However, villain cannot discount QQ (assuming he has AKh, not QQ!), which brings his equity down to 45%. Shoving AKh here is marginal, he's obviously never getting QQ to fold, so he's only got fold equity against the part of our range he's slight favourite against anyway, a flip that is so close it would not be a mistake for AA or KK to call. So if he's jamming AKh here, he's getting it in with very little long-term profit, if any. His profit is coming from his fold equity against AA/KK, and the dead money when we call. Compare that to the reverse implied odds of running into QQ, and it's gonna be close.

Still, I do accept he might have AKh here, but I don't think he ever has AQ, nor any other AK, so it's still a fold, because against sets and AKh we're in really terrible shape.

Also, I'm not suggesting it's a good play if he has a set, but at $5nl where folding KK/AA overpairs just doesn't happen, I can see a nitty tagg ejaculating over this flop with a set thinking hero is never folding KK/AA. It's not how I'd play a set here, but a lot of people will just c/r all in on this kind of board with a set, and it's usually either the people who play very few hands or the maniacs who have been shoving a lot anyway imo.

[daviddem]

I had to stove AKh against AA/KK on this board to see that you are indeed correct (only just over 50%), I figured AKh would be like 45%ish against an overpair in this spot. However, villain cannot discount QQ (assuming he has AKh, not QQ!), which brings his equity down to 45%. Shoving AKh here is marginal, he's obviously never getting QQ to fold, so he's only got fold equity against the range he's slight favourite against anyway, a flip that is so close it would not be a mistake for AA or KK to call. So if he's jamming AKh here, he's getting it in with very little long-term profit, if any. His profit is coming from his fold equity against AA/KK, and even then it's pretty much just the dead money. Compare that to the reverse implied odds of running into QQ, and it's gonna be close.

AhKh has 45% equity vs QQ+. So he needs only a tiny bit of fold equity to make the play profitable. It's a good exercise to do the math and calculate the exact % of the time he has to get a fold to make the play +EV. Try it. Personally, I shove AhKh all day long vs QQ+ here if I think that there is even a small chance that my opp would think for a few seconds before mashing the call button with KK.

OP sorry for the hijack, back in line.

[OngBonga]

AhKh has 45% equity vs QQ+. So he needs only a tiny bit of fold equity to make the play profitable. It's a good exercise to do the math and calculate the exact % of the time he has to get a fold to make the play +EV. Try it. Personally, I shove AhKh all day long vs QQ+ here if I think that there is even a small chance that my opp would think for a few seconds before mashing the call button with KK.

OP sorry for the hijack, back in line.

The more I think about this hand, the more I realise there's not much other way to play AKh here. The only problem villain has with this tactic is if we always fold KK and always call AA. Villain has only 40% equity against AA/QQ, he needs us to be either calling KK or folding AA. I suppose AA folds a non-zero amount of times, and KK calls a non-zero amount of times, so with the dead money shoving AKh must be +ev against a range of QQ+. Having said that, I'm sure there are many people good enough to always fold KK here and always call AA, I'm just not convinced about this at $5nl. At higher levels, I think this would be a -ev shove with AKh.

Interesting hand. Sorry is it hijacking if we talk from villain's perspective instead? Should we not be thinking about what range villain has us on? It sure helps me know what to do in this spot... fold KK and call AA/QQ, that way villain made a mistake, thus he has been exploited.