qq vs huge range on flushed board

[Zorkion]

Merge - $0.04 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 72.75 BB (VPIP: 12.73, PFR: 7.88, 3Bet Preflop: 1.45, Hands: 165)
BTN: 201 BB (VPIP: 88.55, PFR: 64.89, 3Bet Preflop: 22.22, Hands: 133)
SB: 73.25 BB (VPIP: 13.29, PFR: 6.33, 3Bet Preflop: 4.29, Hands: 161)
BB: 232 BB (VPIP: 15.55, PFR: 7.98, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 238)
UTG: 235.75 BB (VPIP: 30.65, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 62)
UTG+1: 222.75 BB (VPIP: 14.41, PFR: 12.01, 3Bet Preflop: 3.77, Hands: 2,679)
Hero (MP): 181.25 BB
MP+1: 100 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3 8 T
Hero bets 5 BB, BTN calls 5 BB

Turn: (17.5 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 11.5 BB, BTN raises to 23 BB, Hero calls 11.5 BB

River: (63.5 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BTN bets 31.75 BB, Hero


thoughts?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Bet more on OTF with a board this wet ~9BB.

You have 133 hands on Villain. Do you have any notes? If not, consider taking more notes.

Given you have more than a few hands on Villain, what ranges can you put him on for each street (even w/o notes)?

[Zorkion]

do you know of any good resources for learning bet sizing? I want to learn more about it.

As far as ranges go, I'm thinking...

pre: 22-JJ,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,72s+,62s+,52 s+,42s+,32s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J2o+,T2o+,94o+,84o+,74o +,64o+,54o
flop: a whole bunch of stuff with one club, gutshots, overcards, etc. probably no sets
turn: 2pairs, straights, flushes, set of 7s,
river: yeah, ok i think i get the point.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Best resource: post hands and ask about bet-sizing.

It's all about charging Villains more when you have a reason to think they're drawing. When the board is such that most of Villain's range is made up of hands that are drawing to a straight or flush, then you want to bet an amount that makes calling and chasing that draw a bad gamble.

In general, a player is going to raise, fold, or call based on 1) their cards and 2) the board texture (QQ tends to shut down when an A or K comes out). The amount that they are willing to call is a distant 3 in their mind, maybe causing them slight hesitation before doing what they had already decided to do before they saw your bet amount.


So, when the board is wet (has lots of draws), you bet big.
Villains will call more than they should, so you make them pay for it big time.

When the board is dry (rainbow board, no straight draws), you bet small.
Villains will only continue with strong hands, so you don't want to spew into them.


Another upshot of this is that Villains will see you varying your bet size and assume you're doing it based on your hand strength. So you get even more benefit by exploiting their mistaken read.

[rong]

Not sure I agree with a 9bb flop raise. Flop seems fine to me. Fold turn though as played. B/f two streets here seems fine. I don't mind checking the turn either.

[Cobra_1878]

Hmm, I think I pot the flop, bet turn a little bigger as well. As much as I would like to say fold this river, in game against an 88/65 villain, I am almost always c/c.

[WeldPhaser]

like MMM said, what sort of post flop reads do you have on this guy? you should have plenty too. aggro players show themselves much faster than tight players.

I wouldn't say overbetting this flop is good advice. especially to someone who is asking for help on sizing.

if villain has been min-raising a ton post flop, i don't see any problem calling the turn.

it may just be i havent had enough coffee, but im not sure what id do on the river. like cobra said in play v. a maniac like this , calling it off, but, hindsight wants to be a fold masta though

[Carroters]

b/f the river ffs! After you check folding is completely out of the question for this price vs this guy.

Those of you wanting to fold, you know how to work out how often you need to be good right?

[griffey24]

Bet more on OTF with a board this wet ~9BB.

You have 133 hands on Villain. Do you have any notes? If not, consider taking more notes.

Given you have more than a few hands on Villain, what ranges can you put him on for each street (even w/o notes)?

You want to bet 9bb into 7.5 bb when we have the Qc? This is mega overkill. His sizing is fine imo.

b/f the river ffs! After you check folding is completely out of the question for this price vs this guy.

Those of you wanting to fold, you know how to work out how often you need to be good right?

Villain raised the turn, are you suggesting donking river again? I think check re-eval is pretty standard here after our turn play, and I would c/c now after his sizing.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Saying you disagree w/o giving a compelling reason isn't really helping you (all) make your points.

If you're going to disagree with my assessment, then please give me your reasoning. I'm not claiming to be awesome at bet sizing, but I do feel like I have a solid strategy for PRE and OTF.

Saying that 9BB into 7.5BB is too much, w/o explaining it, leads me to think there is no overbet in your bet-sizing range OTF, and you're just going with the standard "2/3 - 3/4 is the right amount" line.


So my question for anyone who has posted that my advice is sub-par:

When/why do you overbet OTF?

[Carroters]

oops completely missread the hand! Thought we just went bet bet check/tank. Yeah I feel kind of gross calling the turn to be honest but can't fold vs this guy. Call river now.

@Mojo, I think overbetting this flop is bad as there's no reason at all to give this guy a reason to constrain himself on a flop he'll probably call and spazz super wide on to a normal bet size which he's seen people make against him all the time. Doing something unique by betting 9 could be really bad if it scares away his gutters w/ no club, stops him bluff raising etc. etc.

[griffey24]

I think 9 is overkill because it really narrows both his calling range, and on a board that someone might be convinced to bluff, it really reduces the probability of getting bluff raised.

So now instead of having low/mid pairs with a club peeling, we are probably narrowing his range to top pairs, top pairs + club, flushes and sets.

In general I don't have a flop over-bet range. I really don't think there is much need for one. Turn I have some over-betting range depending on villains and river I definitely have an over-bet range.

I can maybe see doing this with QQ no club or something, but QQ with a club just kills his calling range to a 3/4 pot bet. We don't want to scare out pairs+clubs that we will dominate when a club comes.

[daven]

consider folding the turn

[Zorkion]

Best resource: post hands and ask about bet-sizing.

It's all about charging Villains more when you have a reason to think they're drawing. When the board is such that most of Villain's range is made up of hands that are drawing to a straight or flush, then you want to bet an amount that makes calling and chasing that draw a bad gamble.

In general, a player is going to raise, fold, or call based on 1) their cards and 2) the board texture (QQ tends to shut down when an A or K comes out). The amount that they are willing to call is a distant 3 in their mind, maybe causing them slight hesitation before doing what they had already decided to do before they saw your bet amount.


So, when the board is wet (has lots of draws), you bet big.
Villains will call more than they should, so you make them pay for it big time.

When the board is dry (rainbow board, no straight draws), you bet small.
Villains will only continue with strong hands, so you don't want to spew into them.


Another upshot of this is that Villains will see you varying your bet size and assume you're doing it based on your hand strength. So you get even more benefit by exploiting their mistaken read.

So I may be mistaken here...but for most cases where the opp has a fd, lets say, isnt even betting 2/3 -ish enough to make it a bad gamble for them? I mean, theyll only hit their flush about 18% of the time, right? whereas they would need 40% equity to make it a breakeven call. I know implied odds will probably give them a little more value if i give them an more cash at that point, but thats another one of my weaker points. that is- mentally balancing implied odds vs pot odds.

@griffey24 (and others): So...I dont personally have any standard ranges that ever overbet the pot in any situation, except maybe when i have the nuts. Can you please give some examples of when an overbet might be appropriate? I honestly cant think of any.

@daven, carroters: why should we consider folding the turn here? Are we just folding to any raises from an opp like this when we dont have a very good hand? I know its helped my game to stop being such a calling station and generally give more respect to opps aggression, but sometimes I worry that I go from one extreme to another, and end up just shying away from any aggression whatsoever.


So..more about bet sizing though- One of the things I've taken to recently is just using 2/3 pot bets only, because i noticed that I tended to base my bet sizes more on the strength of my hands, and from in-game play i think some of my opps caught onto it. what should i do to improve this?

[griffey24]

On the river IP when facing a check when you have what you believe is for sure the best hand, and villain has a hand that he likely can't fold, but also probably won't c/r a regular sized bet.

Maybe if you have like AQ on KJTx9 board or something. Or you have KK on J53KJ board. In both spots if you're tripling and villain is c/c down then I don't expect villain to c/r rivers too often vs your tripling range, but lots of ppl will have trouble folding nut'ish hands (straight in first example, or Jx in second example) even to an overbet.

Or in spots where villain's range is capped. You are OOP on 742hh board and PFR checks back IP, turn is Th you lead turn, river is some brick, could be a good spot to over-bet because PFR rarely has a strong hand or flush after checking back flop. Spots like that. Some ppl might hero call you though because they KNOW they don't have flushes.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Bet sizing is based on flop texture, not hand strength. If Villain is willing to make a small mistake or a big mistake with virtually the same frequency, then offer them the big mistake.

This bet destroys Villain's implied odds much more than a "standard" bet size. Meaning that when they do get there, you have to put a lot more chips in for them to make a profit, which you are aware of, and opposed to. So their call OTF makes it much harder for them to achieve a positive long-term winrate in this spot. This is a lovely benefit and another way that the overbet maximizes value from players who just don't fold FD's and OESD's. Even if the overbet is more than they will call, betting the most that they will call w/o significantly altering their range is clearly the ideal sizing.

This is, I think, in line with what Carroters was saying, insofar as that if a Villain's range is going to significantly change based on bet size, then more thought must go in to determining the biggest size you can bet w/o altering his range.

As to this being a "unique" move... if this is true... isn't it a benefit to force villains to deal with situations for which they are not mentally prepared?

[daven]

just realised that preflop sizing is bad (too small) given that you have the nuts and a 90vpip player against whom you are 180bb effective who is always coming along.

Turn i like bet-fold with the reads given because i think you are rarely ahead. When someone is 90% vpip and you have over 100 hands on them you should have an idea of their post-flop tendencies, especially how they respond to cbets. If they have any history of postflop raising then I guess this is a turn call and check-call any river bet that isn't a shove. As played and assuming reads/etc make you think that turn call is appropriate then i think that you have to call his river bet, else your rationale for the turn call is questionable.

I'm starting to wonder whether turn sizing is too small

[jackvance]

What does he bluff on the river behind like this? You're tempted to call so i'd just fold.

[Zorkion]

just realised that preflop sizing is bad (too small) given that you have the nuts and a 90vpip player against whom you are 180bb effective who is always coming along.

Turn i like bet-fold with the reads given because i think you are rarely ahead. When someone is 90% vpip and you have over 100 hands on them you should have an idea of their post-flop tendencies, especially how they respond to cbets. If they have any history of postflop raising then I guess this is a turn call and check-call any river bet that isn't a shove. As played and assuming reads/etc make you think that turn call is appropriate then i think that you have to call his river bet, else your rationale for the turn call is questionable.

I'm starting to wonder whether turn sizing is too small

what do you think for the preflop sizing then?