[10NL] AA...3bet pot and facing flop raise

[Cobra_1878]

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $10.00 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 14.10, 3Bet Preflop: 1.96, Hands: 160)
SB: $17.56 (VPIP: 16.22, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 151)
Hero (BB): $10.45
UTG: $21.75 (VPIP: 18.92, PFR: 16.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
MP: $10.15 (VPIP: 56.25, PFR: 56.25, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 16)
CO: $12.19 (VPIP: 31.91, PFR: 19.15, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 47)

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A A

UTG raises to $0.30, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.05, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.15, 2 players) 8 7 9
Hero bets $1.55, UTG raises to $4.00, Hero ???

[Savy]

As you're literally at the top of your range (assume you don't 3bet UTG w/77, 88, 99, TJ, etc) you can't fold without being an exploited mess without having a pretty fucking awesome read that villain only raises enough here that you are horrible crushed and even then if you are folding here villain can literally 3bet ATC on this flop and make you fold so it's pretty awful to fold.

[OngBonga]

I agree completely with savy. This looks like a pretty strong table and this guy is playing his range vs your range. I'm calling and not folding at any stage.

Also, move table. There's plenty of fish at 10nl.

[abelardx]

9 combos of set. 16 combos of nut straight but I'd expect to only see JTs. So that's like 13 combos which is not a lot. OTOH he could have TT - AA. Why he'd call preflop with KK or AA idk but it's possible if he 'doesn't want to let you get away'. So say only half the kings and aces. That's 18 combos of TT - QQ and another maybe three KK for a total of 21. So I like jamming here.

[rpm]

i don't hate just folding here. Tx or 6x probably has between 35-45% vs us here depending if it has a pair to go with it or not. sets and two pairs crush us. i dont care if i'm exploitable after 38 hands when we have 0 hands stronger than a pair in our range, and villain could well have plenty (plus semi-bluffs which we dont have a substantial equity edge against anyway)

i dont know how the games play though. if this is likely a spot where a player we've played 40 hands against is likely to think/play on level 3 vs us (ie trying to get us to fold a likely overpair because he assumes we're aware that his range has more nuts in it than ours or whatever) and therefore bluff a lot, yeah feel free to call down

[BorisTheSpider]

JTs seems exceedingly unlikely, as do 78/89/79, but nits do love to setmine, so I think he can certainly have all of 77/88/99. TT might raise with the OESD, 66 probably doesn't, if JJ and QQ can raise the flop as well we've about 55% equity. The trouble is, I'm not sure our nit does raise JJ/QQ, and if he doesn't, we're crushed.

If you're commiting to the hand, which you have to if you don't fold the flop, I'm not sure shoving the flop is much good against that range, since we really only get called by the stuff that's beating us mostly. I don't mind calling the flop then checking the turn to him - he can then shove TT as a semibluff, and if he checks back the turn we probably weren't getting any more of his money anyway, but we can shove the river to see if he gets married to his overpair. I'm not sure I like giving the free card, but I don't see how shoving the flop can be good.

[kickass]

If villain can be raising TT-kk then not getting it all in here seems pretty fucking horrible but how can we know?
Also at borris if villain raise/folded 10s or 66 on this flop that seems like a better result than him realizing his equity. Im on my phone so I can't do calcs but hed surly have enough equity to call our jam with those hands and folding would be a mistake for him. Im on my phone so im only guessing with this but its what id expect in game

[BorisTheSpider]

If villain can be raising TT-kk then not getting it all in here seems pretty fucking horrible but how can we know?
Also at borris if villain raise/folded 10s or 66 on this flop that seems like a better result than him realizing his equity. Im on my phone so I can't do calcs but hed surly have enough equity to call our jam with those hands and folding would be a mistake for him. Im on my phone so im only guessing with this but its what id expect in game

TT/66 have nearly 40% equity, and we can jam giving him another $5.40 to call into $13.10, so yeah he can call profitably.

JJ/QQ might raise just based on player type though, because I think rather than station us down, which triggers the nits big fear (losing a big pot) he might raise so he can get away from them if we shove, which I agree sucks for him but I think he can do it. I think he'd have tried to get it in preflop with KK, so I think his only overpairs that raise "for information" can be JJ/QQ. If we jam, he just correctly folds his smaller overpairs and calls with his sets.

If his raise/call range is 66-TT we have 40% equity.

If he doesn't raise/call the idiot end, and it's TT-77, we have 31%.

If he raise/calls QQ but not JJ, and also raise calls TT-66 or TT-77, we're about flipping.

I don't think we can jam the flop. It's also a horrible flop to call his raise. Any J,T,6 or Q on the turn sucks.

Meh, I'm lost. It's an interesting hand.

[The Bean Counter]

Marginal spot. Folding isn't terrible against somebody that seems nitty, but I also doubt getting it is a huge mistake. Some villains will sometimes flat a 3bet with KK+ and gii on the flop or turn and we don't need many combos of that and TT to be doing just about okay. I don't see JTs in this villain's range either.

Timing tells might help in these spots. I'd typically expect a flopped set or TT to pause before raising because "omg, I has a set in 3bp, I'm going to stack his overpair", whereas the overpair element would have decided to jam the majority of flops before the flop was dealt and snap raise.

[abelardx]

btw congratz on moving up cobra

[Cobra_1878]

After the first two posts I was like "Fuck, was it really a straightforward hand". Now, I am happier haha.

TT/66 have nearly 40% equity, and we can jam giving him another $5.40 to call into $13.10, so yeah he can call profitably.

JJ/QQ might raise just based on player type though, because I think rather than station us down, which triggers the nits big fear (losing a big pot) he might raise so he can get away from them if we shove, which I agree sucks for him but I think he can do it. I think he'd have tried to get it in preflop with KK, so I think his only overpairs that raise "for information" can be JJ/QQ. If we jam, he just correctly folds his smaller overpairs and calls with his sets.

If his raise/call range is 66-TT we have 40% equity.

If he doesn't raise/call the idiot end, and it's TT-77, we have 31%.

If he raise/calls QQ but not JJ, and also raise calls TT-66 or TT-77, we're about flipping.

I don't think we can jam the flop. It's also a horrible flop to call his raise. Any J,T,6 or Q on the turn sucks.

Meh, I'm lost. It's an interesting hand.

This pretty much sums it up. I wasn't super happy GII on the flop, I wasn't super happy calling to see one of many, many bad turn cards and I wasn't super happy about having to fold the top of my 3betting range.

btw congratz on moving up cobra

Thanks, I think this is my 4th shot at 10NL now. Feeling more confident than ever with this attempt though as I was crushing 5NL.

[griffey24]

I'm not sure if we can necessarily extrapolate 0% 3b into 0% 4b, but if he's flatting big pairs pre it's definitely more of a stack off.

If he has JTs, then he might have (and raise) 9Ts here.

I don't have stove here at work, but 66+, JTs, 9Ts seems like a reasonable range here.

If he's never folding and always raise calling, then we need 13.05:7.85 = 37.6% to jam here.

If he's ever bluffing even a bit, then this makes it much better for us. I gotta figure we for sure have 37.6% here if we include overpairs.

[griffey24]

Really the first answers to questions like this should go straight to poker stove and straight to an EV calculation. That's all there is to it.

With 66+, JTs, 9Ts:

66,77,88,99,TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA,JTs,9Ts 45.05% 19,742 2,442
AhAs 54.95% 24,346 2,442

Even with only 77,88,99,TT,JJ which I think is very reasonable, this is a jam:

board: 8d7h9s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
77,88,99,TT,JJ 56.25% 11,358 672
AhAs 43.75% 8,760 672

Only if we remove JJ is this a fold:

board: 8d7h9s
Hand Equity Wins Ties
77,88,99,TT 68.69% 9,936 528
AhAs 31.31% 4,386 528

Add in potential bluffs and a wider value range, jam and it's not close imo.

[Savy]

@Griffey - Do you not think there's any merit in calling? Either way what factors did you consider to get to that conclusion?

Thanks, I think this is my 4th shot at 10NL now. Feeling more confident than ever with this attempt though as I was crushing 5NL.

Congrats dude, but don't get overly upset if you run bad at 10nl. Unless you were playing over a huge sample you can run really hot/cold and it doesn't mean you've got massively better or worse. Just something to be aware of so it doesn't mess with your game mentally.

Gl with the shot though.

[griffey24]

If we assume that he's raise / calling always, then it's the equivalent to him jamming on us on the flop and us having to call it off.

In that case we have $7.85 left to call, and the total pot with his jam (~ 10.45 + 1.55 + 1.05 -> 13.05), so 13.05:7.85 gives us 37.6% equity needed.

I'm just looking at the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is our jam always getting called and him never bluffing, and seeing if we still have enough equity vs his range to jam. Which I think we do.

So yah whether or not calling is profitable is a completely different issue. I just think there are so many awful turn cards that its more likely a hand we would have stacked with good equity slows down (JJ,QQ,KK) than making more money off a hand that would have folded to our jam (some random KQ/KJ/AJ/AQ?)

[rpm]

if he has JJ-KK then ignore my previous post. i personally don't see much merit in raise/felting any of these hands UTG vs a BB 3bettor and so assumed he'd likely just call those hands to our CB

[Keith]

If we assume that he's raise / calling always, then it's the equivalent to him jamming on us on the flop and us having to call it off.

In that case we have $7.85 left to call, and the total pot with his jam (~ 10.45 + 1.55 + 1.05 -> 13.05), so 13.05:7.85 gives us 37.6% equity needed.

I'm just looking at the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is our jam always getting called and him never bluffing, and seeing if we still have enough equity vs his range to jam. Which I think we do.

So yah whether or not calling is profitable is a completely different issue. I just think there are so many awful turn cards that its more likely a hand we would have stacked with good equity slows down (JJ,QQ,KK) than making more money off a hand that would have folded to our jam (some random KQ/KJ/AJ/AQ?)

with your range , its only a T on the turn that has us in bad shape against the required equity.


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[Pascal]

Equilab looks really cool Keith, do you use it often? Stupid question but is that red line our required equity for profit?

[BorisTheSpider]

Equilab looks really cool Keith, do you use it often? Stupid question but is that red line our required equity for profit?

The red line shows the equity on the flop, so it provides a baseline for which turns improve our equity and which reduce it.

[Keith]

stove is a poor relation to it now .Equilab does so much more and its free as well.

[seven-deuce]

stove is a poor relation to it now .Equilab does so much more and its free as well.

Didn't know about this, cheers.