Top 2 faces turn shove

[BorisTheSpider]

Thought this was an interesting spot, interested to hear who's calling/folding.

Against 66/22/A2s/A6s we have 35% equity, we need 31% to call. At first it surprised me that we did so badly against a range of hands that we either crush, or which crush us, and I estimated them to be of a similar number, but then I realised we (and the board) block the shit out of A2s/A6s, so it's a pretty close thing whether to call this or not.

Something else to think about is that he's fishy (sitting short, plus the line on this board) so could have probably flatted AA/KK pre here, in which case we have like 29% equity. Again, the smallish decrease in equity if we put AA/KK in his range is because of us blocking those hands.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $7.98 (79.8 bb)
SB: $9 (90 bb)
BB: $7.36 (73.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): $43.52 (435.2 bb)
MP: $7.98 (79.8 bb)
CO: $10.29 (102.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A K
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) A 2 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

Turn: ($2.15) K (2 players)
Hero bets $2, BTN raises to $6.98 and is all-in

[abelardx]

With no straights or flushes possible I would always call here. His line doesn't make much sense. I don't know what to make of his hand. But only 8 combos are beating us. So I'd have to call.

[Savy]

What is my range?

Folding what % of my range makes me exploitable here?

Where does my current hand fall into this range?

Call/fold accordingly

Later look at the hand and see what possible pitfalls your range. So say you have to call ATs here that's probably something we don't want to have to do, so clearly that's a problem with our range at some point previous to this. Then we can also look at what hands we'd add/take from our range to see how we can best exploit people who we know are making mistakes here.

Then when we have a big enough sample of people doing stuff like this on boards like that we can do some database work and get a rough idea of the general populations range in this spot.

[Carroters]

.......stop wanting to make awful folds!!!!

[Carroters]

STOP IT

[griffey24]

I think focusing on much more marginal decisions will be more worthwhile for you.

You're at the top of your range and you're never folding. You need 31% equity here to make this call. That means that you can be a dog to his range, 31%-49% and STILL need to make this call.

Board: Ah 2h 6c Kc
Dead:

equity win
Hand 0: 56.061% { 66, 22, AKs, A6s, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh, JhTh, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.939% { AdKd }

[BorisTheSpider]

What is my range?

AA, 66, AKs, AKo, JQhh

Folding what % of my range makes me exploitable here?

More than 61%.

Where does my current hand fall into this range?

Kind of questionable. 32% of my range is sets, 63% is top 2 pair, so from a purely GTO perspective I need to fold about half my top 2 pair combos to make him indifferent to jamming as a bluff and indifferent to jamming for value.

From a GTO perspective, calling with all my AK combos means I only fold 5% of the time when I have JQhh so that makes me a massive station in this spot.

But - like carroters said, I think contemplating folding top 2 ever here at these stakes probably makes me a big nit.

Then we can also look at what hands we'd add/take from our range to see how we can best exploit people who we know are making mistakes here.

Although I felt this was an interesting spot given the numbers I gave in the OP, I actually stationed this off, and I can't really see how I could ever fold - so intuitively I agree with Carroters that folding would be awful. I was actually more expecting that some people might want to fold given the sizing.

I intuitively feel that a useful "population read" based adjustment to our range is to only fold the 5% of it that's drawing here and just station off all the AK. It seems like quite a big adjustment when you look at it in the context of it meaning I call with 95% of my range, but OTOH my range is super strong so folding much of anything is going to be tough.

[BorisTheSpider]

STOP IT

Sir yes sir.

[Savy]

I'd be pretty amazed if your range is what you posted. Start your UTG range and whittle it down. If that is your actual range I'd argue that my point about adding/taking (in this case adding) from our range should apply because you're doing something wrong on previous streets to be that narrow at this point imo.

If I was you I'd be decreasing my bet size a little bit on flop and river and adding quite a few more hands in. In fact why not just go through the whole hand and look at your range and how you play it all on this flop against a random villain.

[griffey24]

Boris - your posts confuse me a bit, because you talk a lot about GTO etc etc.

If you are playing GTO then your range cannot be 66,AA,AK,JQhh in that spot. That is 15 value combos to 1 bluff combo. Does that sound GTO to you?

[BorisTheSpider]

Well remember I did open UTG, and I have a lot of hands with SDV that don't just barrel off for pot on 2 streets. Some of my worse flushdraws are gonna checkraise the flop, and I'm only going to continue on the turn to this sizing with some thick value hands and one great draw that has improved on the turn.

My sizing is somewhat adjusted for the BTN looking fishy (sitting short) so I'm going for thick value. I don't think, given that I think he's likely to be a bit of a station, that I have much to gain by bombing the turn for pot with a ton of draws.

I guess I can have AQ in my range here given the (very preliminary) read I have of him seeming a bit fishy, but I think it would be a somewhat large adjustment to just pot the turn with AQ here.

[BorisTheSpider]

Boris - your posts confuse me a bit, because you talk a lot about GTO etc etc.

If you are playing GTO then your range cannot be 66,AA,AK,JQhh in that spot. That is 15 value combos to 1 bluff combo. Does that sound GTO to you?

Meh, I don't consider myself particularly into GTO but I am doing some work looking at GTO type ranges at the moment. What I meant was just that when Savy said "call with an unexploitable percentage of your range" that was what I came up with. I probably shouldn't have neglected to mention that the reason I just pot the flop here is because I already consider BTN to be likely to be a bit fishy, so I have actually adjusted quite a bit and am not really playing a remotely GTO range, especially when I then continue and just pot the turn.

[griffey24]

If you think button is fishy then your turn barrel range should have AJ/AQ in it for sure as well.

In that case, that would also change your calculations for "calling with an unexploitable percentage" such that AK is for sure a call.

[BorisTheSpider]

Here's a more rigorous set of ranges just for consideration:

Flop for value: AA, 66, AKs, AKo
Flop as a bluff: ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Jh9h, 98s, 87s, 76s

The trouble is then, I haven't many turn bluffs that aren't just spewing.

All of my KXhh picked up some showdown value, ATs is just spewing, non of the backdoor straight draws went anywhere, QThh and JThh can still keep bluffing I guess, and QJs like I said before, but I don't really feel that after just potting the flop here I have much of any fold equity against someone I already consider likely to be a station (albeit that might be jumping to conclusions) so OTT I'm not going to play a remotely GTO range.

[Savy]

Saying GTO when we aren't talking about GTO is bad. Making an unexploitable all in call with whatever range you get to that spot with isn't GTO or even close to it.

And I still think you're being really nitty pre or on the flop to have that range and it's a pretty huge adjustment to be making based off what seem like fairly weak reads.

edit - This post was made before the above one. That range seems somewhat better, but you can't be giving up with like all of it.

[BorisTheSpider]

If you think button is fishy then your turn barrel range should have AJ/AQ in it for sure as well.

In that case, that would also change your calculations for "calling with an unexploitable percentage" such that AK is for sure a call.

Yeah, I think AJ would be a very big adjustment seeing as all I know about him so far is that he's sitting short and called the flop, but even if I put AQ in there, then folding just the AQ+QJhh means I call with 54% of my range when he shoves which seems in the right ballpark.

In any case, like I said, I'd never have actually folded here - I was more expecting some people would call me a massive station!

[BorisTheSpider]

And I still think you're being really nitty pre or on the flop to have that range and it's a pretty huge adjustment to be making based off what seem like fairly weak reads.

So let's assume it is a really weak read. Readless, you're happy just potting the turn with AQ here?

I mean, better certainly isn't folding, but I guess you can get called by worse as the board gets a lot drawier on the turn, and a few draws pick up some showdown value and call not just to draw but because I could be barrelling a draw myself.

EDIT: I'd be interested to know what your ranges (readless) here would be, preflop, otf and ott.

[Savy]

I still stand by

If I was you I'd be decreasing my bet size a little bit on flop and river and adding quite a few more hands in.

Pot Pot Pot just seems a bit overkill when it's not exactly a soaking wet board. I mean if the guy is a fish then ye maybe its a really good idea to just go for really fat value but I just think it's a bit too much.

I don't mind your flop range, was along the lines of what I was thinking of myself (whether that's good or bad though :P) but I'd just go smaller and I'd be betting wider than your suggested turn range. Do you not think you're missing out by not continuing with your weakest hands when your range is so strong. What do you propose you do with hands like 78s? c/f? Seems like you're missing out on EV, both from getting fold equity with your 78s and getting paid off more with your strong range.

What I think though is that you should be doing that as standard and when you adjust because he is a fish and we have less fold equity we do take out combos of bluffs, but then we want to be trying to add more value hands in that range too, if possible.

[griffey24]

I agree with Savy, that your sizing in this hand (and other hands you've posted) is too big post-flop.

Betting 0.75 or 0.9x pot is going to get called by their best hands either way. But choosing a sizing smaller than what you are doing will widen their flop calling ranges. It will also improve your fold equity on later streets, because ppl are continuing wider but the hands they are adding to their call down range can't stand heat on later streets.

Also, not every good hand has to win 100bb's, so you don't have to pump ever hand so hard. It's better to win 50bb's 70% of the time, than 80bbs 40% of the time.

[BorisTheSpider]

Pot Pot Pot just seems a bit overkill when it's not exactly a soaking wet board. I mean if the guy is a fish then ye maybe its a really good idea to just go for really fat value but I just think it's a bit too much.

Yeah, I tend to agree - it might be an overadjustment especially considering how preliminary my read is. Potting the flop and turn does let me just get all the money in (I'd have just under pot left on the river) with his stack size though, so I still am on the fence about whether it's too much.

I don't mind your flop range, was along the lines of what I was thinking of myself (whether that's good or bad though :P) but I'd just go smaller and I'd be betting wider than your suggested turn range. Do you not think you're missing out by not continuing with your weakest hands when your range is so strong. What do you propose you do with hands like 78s? c/f? Seems like you're missing out on EV, both from getting fold equity with your 78s and getting paid off more with your strong range.

Well against a full-stacked unknown (ie. a proper unknown, where I have no inclination whatsoever to think he's a station) I agree - but given my (again, very preliminary) read I think I can probably quite safely c/f the non-heart 78s here, he's not gonna fold a rag ace or KQ/KJ/KT even if I shove a brick river, so I'd rather just give up.

I do agree though that I want to be careful here about deciding someone is a station purely based on stack size and no other data, he could easily be a shorty too.

when you adjust because he is a fish ... then we want to be trying to add more value hands in that range too, if possible.

Yeah, agreed also. If I think he's fishy, not having AQ in my turn range here is really bad.

[BorisTheSpider]

Betting 0.75 or 0.9x pot is going to get called by their best hands either way. But choosing a sizing smaller than what you are doing will widen their flop calling ranges. It will also improve your fold equity on later streets, because ppl are continuing wider but the hands they are adding to their call down range can't stand heat on later streets.

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense and I will try to put it into practise right away.