4bet bluff turns two pair

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain flatting the 4bet made this kind of an awkward spot.

OTF I c/c because I don't want to get jammed on if I raise and I think I stand the best chance to realize my equity just calling. Besides, I can be ahead anyway, because I think he just stabs a lot when I check the flop after the action pre.

Is it a mistake to check the turn? I expect him to keep betting AK, especially with the flush draw on board, but if he checks back we missed the chance to get his stack on the river and a lot of rivers kill our action completely.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $32.59 (325.9 bb)
SB: $9.40 (94 bb)
BB: $24.17 (241.7 bb)
UTG: $10.78 (107.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $19.47 (194.7 bb)
CO: $6.20 (62 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BTN raises to $0.90, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.30, BTN calls $1.40

Flop: ($4.75) A 7 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.30, Hero calls $2.30

Turn: ($9.35) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks

[griffey24]

Just bet the flop, you have a monster hand.

I would bet flop $1.25-1.75ish.

[abelardx]

Bet/gii otf and bet/gii on the turn. If he has JT and we don't redraw that's too bad. But we're flipping against AK otf and flipping against a combined range of AK/JT ott. So there's really no getting away from it.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9h7hAs8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.30% 48.30% 0.00% { Ah8h }
MP3 51.70% 51.70% 0.00% { AKs, JTs, AKo, JTo }

[Savy]

Just bet the flop, you have a monster hand.

I would bet flop $1.25-1.75ish.

Can you explain to me what that bet sizing is about?

I'd be 4betting bigger personally, I don't dislike x/c flop. I think I like x/shove turn. If he is more on the passive side though I see no harm in donking the turn and GII.

[griffey24]

OP - do you have any stats on villain?

Bet/gii otf and bet/gii on the turn. If he has JT and we don't redraw that's too bad. But we're flipping against AK otf and flipping against a combined range of AK/JT ott. So there's really no getting away from it.

http://www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 9h7hAs8d
Equity Win Tie
MP2 48.30% 48.30% 0.00% { Ah8h }
MP3 51.70% 51.70% 0.00% { AKs, JTs, AKo, JTo }

If he has AK here, he probably also has JJ-KK here. If he has JTs here, he probably also has 9Ts. JJ-KK,9Ts etc are probably not getting it in on the flop, but are often calling a flop bet, esp a small one.

Can you explain to me what that bet sizing is about?

I'd be 4betting bigger personally, I don't dislike x/c flop. I think I like x/shove turn. If he is more on the passive side though I see no harm in donking the turn and GII.

The pot is $4.75 and we have around $17ish behind. We can easily bet something like $1.25, $5, shove river.

Also it's the type of board where we're very polarized to air or nuts when betting. If we bet $1.25-1.75ish as a bluff here, it only has to work like 25%ish of the time.

[The Bean Counter]

I don't dislike hero's line if villain is a competent lag. We look like QQ/KK that villain will be believe he can barrel us off (especially if we hollywood it when we call flop and turn) but we effectively have the nuts. Chk/jam turn would be bad imo as we allow villain to play perfectly so chk/call 3 streets would be best if we are going down the tricky line. Against most opponents though, betting out has to be optimal.

Cbetting much more than a third pot in a 4bet pot is poor imo, for all the reasons Griff mentions.

[BorisTheSpider]

OP - do you have any stats on villain?

270 hands, 18/13, 3% 3bet, not seen him be 4bet before. High AF flop and turn. 80% cbet (10 opportunities) and 50% fold to flop cbet (6 opportunities).

[griffey24]

270 hands, 18/13, 3% 3bet, not seen him be 4bet before. High AF flop and turn. 80% cbet (10 opportunities) and 50% fold to flop cbet (6 opportunities).

Why are we 4betting...?

[BorisTheSpider]

Why are we 4betting...?

Well, maybe my reasoning is wrong here, but:

a. We don't know how he reacts to being 4bet yet, and if we 4bet him, we're gonna find out - 3% does leave him with some 3-bet folding stuff, if he 3bets about [QQ+, AKs, AKo, AQs] I think he can fold AQs and QQ at least, if he'll fold AKo as well it looks good.

b. He folds to enough flop cbets that I think he's probably quite fit-or-fold so if he does flat with a better ace and we both miss, I think we take it down on the flop quite a lot.

c. He's a reg, so him having notes that I 4bet AXs here stops him just folding his QQ next time I 4bet him with AA/KK.

Maybe I'm trying to find justifications for it - I mean, I'd like it more if he 3bet 7%.

Also, if I'm brutally honest with myself, I'm probably autopiloting a bit here - I just redid all my preflop ranges, so I'm still getting used to them (which I find leaves less mental capacity over to think about other stuff - I am only 2 tabling though), and this is a "default" 4bet combo for me here, so I may not have even checked his stats at the time.

[d0zer]

Maybe I'm trying to find justifications for it - I mean, I'd like it more if he 3bet 7%.

I'm confused, you're trying to justify the play, and then you admitting to autopiloting (presumably an admission of bad play). No need to be ashamed of autopiloting -- happens to the best of us

3% & 7% 3bet are drastically different here. When my MP opens get 3bet by 3%3bettors I'm giving them credit for it 100% of the time. Preflop would be way more justified if this were BU vs Blinds, but even then I'm just not messing with 3% 3bettors.

[bikes]

how can you not bet this flop and probably c/rai the turn

[bikes]

i would find some way to put monies in on the flop and turn 100% of teh time here

[griffey24]

You 4b with a meh hand vs a tight player (tight range), got peeled and got a lucky flop. You better get as much money as you can in the middle when you do get lucky, cause you won't get a good flop very often.

Don't play fancy, bet bet bet.

[OngBonga]

fold vs 3bet pre, as played bet flop, as played raise flop, as played bet turn, as played jesus fucking christ what more do you want on the flop when you 4bet A8s oop just fucking bet and raise until all the money

edit - actually as played c/r turn because you c/c'd flop