10NLZ - Flopped flush, river pairs board.

[Savy]

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

Button ($22.19)
SB ($12.02)
BB ($12.01)
Hero (UTG) ($11.20)
MP ($17.91)
CO ($13.41)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, 10
Hero raises $0.30, 1 fold, CO calls $0.30, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.75) K, 6, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.20, CO calls $1.20

River: ($4.15) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2, CO raises $11.41 (All-In), Hero calls $7.20 (All-In)

Total pot: $22.55


Hands that villain raises for value are AcQc, QQ, 66, 33. I doubt many people in the CO are flatting Axs vs UTG open but don't really know the games I suppose. I've not given villain KK because he will almost always raise it and this is somewhat compensated by the fact I don't believe he flats QQ all the time.

That is 1 + 3 + 3 + 3 = 10 combos.

Assuming I need 35% equity to call after rake so that's 6 combos of hands I need to beat. Some hands that are maybe realistic for villain to bluff are hands like strong Aces especially w/blockers and draws to Ac & straight. I'd also think that villain could play worse flushes this way.

Not 100% sure on river sizing, may be too small.

Thoughts?


edit - 66 is only 1 combo so makes 8 combos in total which doesn't have any major implications on the calculations.