10NLZ - Flopped flush, river pairs board.

[boutron]

I think we are pretty much in agreement. Very few situations arise where I will raise the flop on a utg opener. And, you are right that much of his calling range is also his barreling range. I just hate to give a (almost) free look at another card.

A lot of it depends on the player pool. 10nl on WPN has plenty of maniacs that will shove top pair in this situation and regs that either level themselves into getting it in w TPTK because of course they are up against only a flush draw, or think every flop is a p*ssing contest and "he who raises last wins". Of course, it also has good, thoughtful regs that I am VERY careful against. Luckily, I know who most of them are.

After my last post, I got curious...and nervous that I was wrong...so I checked my database for this situation. While my usual play is to raise here, against nits/solid reg and maniacs, I almost always just called. The nit/solid reg is folding a worse hand and the maniac is going to continue to bet his worse hands. The majority of hands I did raise and it was wildly successful, as flopping a set should be. What really amazed me is how many times the villain took it as a bluff and made some ridiculous move of his own. I was constantly getting it in w huge equity. Obviously, a few times I got it in behind, but with 34% equity (except for the very rare set under set), I am way ahead overall.

In fairness, it's hard to say what would have happened in the hands where I raised and they folded. I probably make more on those hands by just calling. But, the overall results, at least from my sample for the last year indicate that raising most of the time worked out pretty well.

Most importantly, this is player/read dependent. And, that is exactly why I don't play zoom and definitely don't play anonymous tables. I like to get a real feel for my opponents and the table flow just for situations like this. The response is so read dependent. I don't like playing against "the average player". And, they are probably doing the same towards me. "Let's wait for boutron to get rivered a few times, then when he goes on crazy, monkey tilt, we can get his chips until he calms down." But, that's a subject for another post.

[griffey24]

I think we are pretty much in agreement. Very few situations arise where I will raise the flop on a utg opener. And, you are right that much of his calling range is also his barreling range. I just hate to give a (almost) free look at another card.

A lot of it depends on the player pool. 10nl on WPN has plenty of maniacs that will shove top pair in this situation and regs that either level themselves into getting it in w TPTK because of course they are up against only a flush draw, or think every flop is a p*ssing contest and "he who raises last wins". Of course, it also has good, thoughtful regs that I am VERY careful against. Luckily, I know who most of them are.

After my last post, I got curious...and nervous that I was wrong...so I checked my database for this situation. While my usual play is to raise here, against nits/solid reg and maniacs, I almost always just called. The nit/solid reg is folding a worse hand and the maniac is going to continue to bet his worse hands. The majority of hands I did raise and it was wildly successful, as flopping a set should be. What really amazed me is how many times the villain took it as a bluff and made some ridiculous move of his own. I was constantly getting it in w huge equity. Obviously, a few times I got it in behind, but with 34% equity (except for the very rare set under set), I am way ahead overall.

In fairness, it's hard to say what would have happened in the hands where I raised and they folded. I probably make more on those hands by just calling. But, the overall results, at least from my sample for the last year indicate that raising most of the time worked out pretty well.

Most importantly, this is player/read dependent. And, that is exactly why I don't play zoom and definitely don't play anonymous tables. I like to get a real feel for my opponents and the table flow just for situations like this. The response is so read dependent. I don't like playing against "the average player". And, they are probably doing the same towards me. "Let's wait for boutron to get rivered a few times, then when he goes on crazy, monkey tilt, we can get his chips until he calms down." But, that's a subject for another post.

Good post. I think a lot of people can learn from boutron. Many people will often assume they are either right or wrong in a forum discussion, but not many have the patience to go through their database and filter for a particular spot in question, to really see what is happening. That kind of analysis can be really enlightening.

boutron - I noticed you don't have too many posts yet, welcome to the forums! Your contributions have already been helpful.