Dynamical value of the hand.

[PokerStudent]

Hello!

Can anyone explain me how the dynamical values of the hand are calculated?

I had read several articles (See for example the link: http://www.pokertips.org/advanced/hvalue.php )

I can calculate odds using free Poker Odds Calculator available from Simtel http://www.simtel.com/pub/pd/81133.html.

If I know pot odds on the river I can calculate expected value, but how it relates to the dynamical value of the hand I have no idea.

If I do not know pot odds I don’t know how this dynamical value should be evaluated.

Any ideas?

Regards, PS

[Toasty]

Try www.2dimes.net they give hand values in there analysis.

[PokerStudent]

Thank you for the link.

It seems this site is not active now.

My question was not about static hands ranking, but about dynamical value of the hand.

The dynamical value of the hand fluctuates with the number of people in the pot and their playing styles. In addition to odds, which may be calculated using poker odds calculator, the expected pot odds should be evaluated.

[stevedonel]

This is purely my opinion, but it seems that you are being over-analytical about your game. You cant sit there with 89s and look it up on some chart to find out you should only play it against X number of players, in Y position, with Z loose and ¥ tight players behind you.

Despite what you may hear, there is no special formula to what you should and shouldnt raise, call, or fold. Accept for pot odds, and implied odds, but I see alot of people going to far with these, calculating it down +/- 1% Learn the concepts but dont fall into the trap of playing precise math poker, it will get boring and make you predictable.

My 2¢, for what their worth

[PokerStudent]

I agree with you.

If you are playing for fun it will be very boring.

But if you do not want to be a loser, you should do some math.

It is similar to card counting in Blackjack. If you want to play Blackjack for fun, be ready to get rid from your money.
If you want to earn money, playing Blackjack you should work hard and do counting and calculations.

I do not want to be a loser, so I want to find answers on my questions.

For fun I am playing on free games.

Regards,

PS

[AllinLife]

some math is good, all math is bad

[AllinLife]

double post

[fishstick]

i think the problem here is you're looking for a formula to compute something that is "dynamic".

that's like trying to come up with a formula for implied odds.

the values of hands are very situational. the value of AA decrease the more people there are in the pot, but i don't think you can come up with a mathematical way to say how much it decreases with each additional player staying in the pot.

about as close as your going to get to something like this is an expected value chart ---> http://teamfu.freeshell.org/poker_ha..._position.html

but all this will tell is how these starting hands did historically in the various positions.

maybe this is what you're looking for.

[johnnyawe]

I think toasty meant www.twodimes.net

[Toasty]

Thanks for the catch dude...

Try that site, also hand values are dependant upon knowing the other players hands...

[stevedonel]

It is similar to card counting in Blackjack. If you want to play Blackjack for fun, be ready to get rid from your money.

I understand where you're coming from. However, BJ doesnt have as many variables as poker and the dealer always plays by the same methods, these two things makes the math (and playing charts) easier to use and more important. You always know to DD with 82 and the dealer is showing a 3, especially if the count is positive. In poker there is much more to think about. TPTK isnt so good if there is a bet and re-raise in front of you, with 3 people to act after you with a suited straight (ie. 789 all spades) on the flop. Then you have to consider the different players styles too. Of course this is an extreme, but lets go to the other end of the spectrum, to look at a harder hand to play. Last nights hand of John Murphy's trip 2s against Arieh's flush draw is a good example. If Arieh read Murphy as having a set he should not have called any bet at all, even if pot odds said to call for the flush draw. You have to rely on your insticts too, which he eventually did at the river.

Finally, calculated math poker may work online; if your playing person, you cant pull out a chart and sit there forever thinking through all this stuff without everyone developing a very good read on you. If you play in person, some of your habits from online will carry over, so try not to develop crutches like reference charts (thats my biggest point). Just learn them and try to follow of the general concepts while playing.

BTW I play poker and BJ, both for fun and profit. My BJ ROI, for the year, is 63%, in 24 casino sessions, where I do use a playing chart. And my poker ROI on the year is 43% (ring games, SnGs, tourneys, online, and offline, all combined) More variables = more varience

[PokerStudent]

Thank you.

I agree with your comments.

The dynamic value of the hand (or position) should be a function of known cards, number of people in the pot, and their playing styles.

Of course you need to observe the play of your opponents to make assumtions about their playing styles. After you do this you will be able to use math to determine the dynamic value of your hand/position and choose the OPTIMAL strategy in this situation.

The more experienced and professional the player will be, the more accurate the assumtions will be. Therefore, in the long run the more profitable will be the game.

[Humphrind]

The more experienced and professional the player will be, the more accurate the [math] will be. Therefore, in the long run the more profitable will be the game.

I changed one word in the quote above to tell you how I am reading this.

I think you are missing the big picture. How many calculators do you see at the WSOP? Or any other big tournament? None. This is because you cannot rely on math in no limit poker. (and a lot of times you can throw math out in limit as well) Play by instincts. You can calculate pot odds, percentages of hitting and every other stat you want. But you cannot, even with 10 lifetimes of experience, come up with some number to represent your opponent(s) and what cards you are playing against.

Learn the math, learn the outs, but let experience dictate your play, not math.

[PokerStudent]

>How many calculators do you see at the WSOP? Or any other big >tournament? None

I guess that people who win these tournament have the information in the memory.

Calculators are needed for those who have no such big experience, but want to minimize their loses during the years of "studentships"

[Humphrind]

Don't let Rippy see this thread. He'll post 4 pages.

[davfagan]

For the sake of argument, I put your math play against a player who sees every flop for any price. What is the correct play against this player? Wait for AA and get blinded out of every pot? You never know what this player could have, and if his betting is consistent for any hand, then you could never call, except with the absolute nuts, and most players take down a lot more pots than the ones where they have the absolute nuts. While I believe that the odds are important in poker, it isn't everything. Against experienced players I think table image is much more important. Image is probably 3/4 of Dan Harrington's game. He comes off as a rock, and everyone says he is a rock, so 99% of the time when he bets big or raises big, he's respected, even if he is really holding crap. This works in the opposite for Gus Hansen. Players know that he can play anything, and can bet almost anything. In what I guess I'll call "serious" poker (which would probably comprise maybe 5% or less of online poker) psychology is probably a greater factor than the odds.

[Fnord]

You can't get around the need for experience.

Poker often comes down to, what are the odds my hand is good or I can run these *particular* opponents off their hand given:

o Their style of play
o The likely range of hands they hold given:
a) Their betting pattern thus far
b) The board
c) Tells, etc.
d) Their reaction to my actions thus far


The human element is what makes these calculations non-deterministic.

[Fnord]

psychology is probably a greater factor than the odds.

I wouldn't go that far, but in No-Limit it's a lot more important than in limit. At the higher levels it also becomes important.

I suspect the power of Gus' game, is that other players know he's capable of calling them down and playing a wide range of hands. Gus knows that they know that. Hence, he has less presure put on his blinds and other players are less inclined to make a move on him. Unsure what this does to their calling behavior given that he's so hard to put on a hand...

[PokerStudent]

>The human element is what makes these calculations non-deterministic.

I agree with you. But hand (and position) value concept uses such concepts as expected value and standard deviation.

The concept of EV (expected value) was designed with intention/aim to cope with future uncertainty. This means that if there is an uncertainty, for example as in our case (poker), EV is an ideal tool to use it in this situation.
We do not know other players’ cards and strategies, but we do can estimate their probability distributions. From these probability distributions we can estimate EVs and other statistical parameters, for example variances, standard deviations, etc.

[Fnord]

I agree with you. But hand (and position) value concept uses such concepts as expected value and standard deviation.

There is a group working on a Poker Bot (Poki, I think) that might have data of use for you. They pretty much gave up on ring games and have focused on heads-up limit. Apparently, it gave one of the best players a run for his money until he found a counter-strategy the bot didn't adapt to. They were adding player-profiling to rectify that problem...

[johnnyawe]

I really like pokerstudent's line of thought here. "Instinct" and experience really only help you to gain a read on the other players, what cards they might be holding, how they likely they are to fold or call in certain situations, etc. But you have to know what to do with that information. Even if you're playing with a marked deck and could read people's minds, you still have to understand pot odds, EV, and perhaps "dynamical value" in order to maximize your profit. Right?

Pokerstudent, I really don't know how to answer your questions, but let me know what you come up with.

[johnnyawe]

hello.