When did my game turn into suckage?

[sejje]

I'm on another downswing, but I've never had one last this long. This isn't two days $200, this is 3 weeks 500+ (50NL). I've never had a full week losing since I started winning, I don't think.

Some of it's bad beats, but I'd say more than half of the big pots I lose are misplays on my part on some level.

My money isn't scared anymore...I've made plenty enough to play 50NL, I'm around 40 buy-ins (after this 10 buy-in downswing).

I've had nights where I won 400+, and that would put me right back in good spirits, but it's hard to think that's coming when I can't even win 50 in a night lately. I've had two winning nights this month, for a grand total of 88 dollars.

Anyhow, onto what's gone wrong...I'm not really sure. I've loosened up a little bit (from my previous 18% or so), but I haven't played any big pots with marginal hands that I remember. Most pots I lose with a set, overpair, or top two pair.

I can't tell anymore when my overpair is good...maybe I never could and was getting lucky. I can't remember the last time I showed down a winning overpair. Kings running into aces, I just posted a QQ hand lost to (a misplayed) KK...sets don't get action, or get beat...

I rarely draw without odds and a player I think will pay-off.

Anyway, I feel like the last six months is worthless, and the last three weeks is all that counts.

I think I'll batton down the hatch, and start playing right out of the book (which is how I used to play 25NL). Pocket pairs to set, AK, AQs LP, and 76s and better with a few limpers.

I read some thing once about the evolution of a poker player, from LPP to rock, and on from there. I think I just moved out of rock, but I think my post-flop game sucks so I should go back and let the cards do the work?

[Aceofone]

On the evolution of a player, I think the best thing to do is take a break for a few days. Step back and carefully examine your play, sometimes introspection is the only solution.

[sejje]

I've been doing that.

I didn't play for a whole week earlier this month. I guess that's why I'm only down 500.

I often try taking a break, because when I'm losing I dread sitting down to play. It's not bad once I do, but I just think "I'd rather play Xbox."

[metaxy6]

Just a suggestion, man, though I don't really know where you're at.

Why not change your game? Either go back to 25 nl, or switch to limit for a while. If you feel like you're evolving, then try out your game in different situations and let it grow. Sharpen your reads, work on your gear-changing, etc. I'm not saying that 50nl is out of your comfort zone, just that moving around might help round things out.

I had a similar experience in the brick&mortar game. After building a nice br playing 10/20 limit, I moved up to 20/40 and burned through most of my br in like 2 weeks of long sessions. I moved around - back to 10/20, big and small nl games, even 5/10 when it looked juicy. Now, I don't even call ahead anymore - I always scope out the tables first and see which game looks best for me.

[storm75m]

Why not change your game?

Actually, when I go on a slide, the exact opposite works for me, going back to your bread and butter, what you know best, the games that you used to build your bank roll in the first place. Re-read some of the basic things you read to get you started. (Although you probably have everything memorized anyway...) Small breaks do help as well... One thing that got me back on track, was undertaking a bonus project, it kept me focused on just camping most of the time, just to clear my raked hands. If I made a little money, then fine, but I wasn't really playing to make money off of other players (however I would take it if they were giving it to me ), and that seemed to relieve some of the pressure. Luckily the longest slide I've hit was a little over a week, but life sure does suck when you're in one... My .02...

[ZenOffsuit]

I went through a slump recently that tested my will to play another hand of poker! I can totally relate to your situation. I expected to be sucked out on and doubted every single decision I made.....depressing!
So.....I got away from playing but spent that time reading the great posts on FTR (especially stickies by DavSimon, Radashack, Rippy). Watched MTTs on Pokerstars and just tried to read hands and follow the action. Just did what I could to find and plug leaks in my game.
I Also signed up on:
http://www.realpokertraining.com Great site!! Really cool and informative.

It all got me motivated to jump back in and enjoy playing. And I have seen results.

[dalecooper]

I would say try what you're already considering trying. Tighten up your game, play textbook poker for a while. It's the easiest way to show a profit without having to think so much. Make standard raises, fold to most serious aggression, camp for good hands. If you can do this and show a few winning sessions in a row, even small wins, it may turn your confidence back around and you'll be ready to loosen up a little bit again.

If you find that you want to play a looser game overall later on, might I suggest 6 max? If you're not playing it already, that is. It's the best playground for creative poker. But you still need to understand that sometimes that overpair or two pair is no good. Maybe one thing that you're lacking lately is the ability to make tough laydowns, or see when you should be making a tough laydown. Do you ever notice a kind of sick feeling when someone raises you big on the end, but you think "I've got kings here, the board is jack-high, I'm good" - and you call - and you go broke? That sick feeling is an instinct that maybe you're ignoring a little too often. Go with your gut a little more, even when - especially when - the cards are cold. I'd rather get bluffed out of a medium-sized pot than get broke chasing a huge one.

[bunthorne]

Anyhow, onto what's gone wrong...I'm not really sure. I've loosened up a little bit (from my previous 18% or so), but I haven't played any big pots with marginal hands that I remember. Most pots I lose with a set, overpair, or top two pair.

I've read your entire post and I feel for you as I have been there to, in fact I'm taking a short recess. It must seem like the cards are constantly against you.

However, if you are losing a lot of pots with sets, overpair and top two pair, what are you losing to?

Does you set lose to a straight or a flush? If so, perhaps you need to be a little more aware of these possibilities. The board is there, ask yourself what could your opponent have that he is betting? You might be worried that your opponent is trying to bluff you, but in my experience that doesn't happen very often - if they are betting on the river they've usually got the goods. Lay it down if it looks like it is beat. There will be times when you fold the winning hand, but unless you know your opponent to be very weak at reading the board and knowing what makes a winning hand, then you might experience that horrible feeling of looking at the hand you KNEW he had! If you've been slow playing the set, it is a dangerous ploy as you allow the possibility of a cheap draw to beat you.

With the overpair, assume that your opponent is aware of this possibility, and ask yourself what he might have, bearing that in mind. Look at his bet size for clues.

Top two pair, indeed any two pair, is one of my least favourite hands and I'm willing to bet that two pair is the hand that leads to more players going bust than any other. It is especially tricky with two to a flush or a straight on the flop, as one of these might hit. Someone might already have a hidden set, or they might hit a higher two pair than yours. I make a decision on how to play two pair on each hand, and it is not always easy.

[metaxy6]

Wow. Excellent advice from everyone. This site rocks.

I'm just presuming that Sejje knows how to play winning poker and knows something about how to evaluate his play.

That's why I emphasize the importance of game selction, and adjustment to game conditions, in being a consistent winner.

[sejje]

Almost all of my big losing pots are to sets. I can usually detect a straight or a flush.

So, that being said, my sets are losing to bigger sets a lot.

As far as my game is concerned, I'm still relatively new...I've been playing since late October, winning since late December or so. I've played a ton in that time, with 70K+ hands. And my bankroll steadily increased, until May 5. Since then it has rather steadily decreased.

I'm not as good at seeing leaks as some of you guys. I can almost never lay down aces or kings on the flop to a set, that's a leak I don't know how to correct. I probably overvalue two pair, I've read many times "two pair is not a license to print money." I also saw someone say that a couple of times about a set on a safe flop, which I have to say I disagree with (maybe wrongly).

I don't know. I think I'm in the middle of some kind of statistical oddity. This just doesn't seem like variance. It seems like losing a lot of freakin' money. I always thought variance was "lose a couple buy ins, win four buy ins, lose another, win two, go to bed." And a losing night once a week, twice maybe.

[sejje]

Also, I was thinking about this:

My game is very tight...most of my pots are big hands getting paid off by big hands or TPTK.

I'm just the guy paying off lately, for whatever reason.

Maybe I should settle for more marginal hands vs notoriously bad players?

[bunthorne]

[quote="sejje"]

So, that being said, my sets are losing to bigger sets a lot.

I'm not as good at seeing leaks as some of you guys. I can almost never lay down aces or kings on the flop to a set, that's a leak I don't know how to correct.

Losing to a hidden set (pair in the whole) is painful and can be difficult to detect. Perhaps you need to look at the situation pre-flop a little more. If you have a medium pair (JJ,TT,99) and you have position or the game is not a full game, try putting in a decent sized raise. If your opponent reraises you can assume he has a bigger pair and therefore you can dump yours, this will avoid you paying out when you both hit trips. He might be reraising with AK, and if so you are only 6:5 favourite, but because he could have a higher pair, mucking might be advisable. With lower pairs, you often want to pick the pot up on the flop, so a raise might tell you where you stand.

Sets on the flop are arguably the hardest hands to lay down, though, and if you can do this when you're sure your opponent has a bigger set, you're a world class player! I wsih I could do it more often!

I assume you mean you can't lay down AA or KK to a hidden set? It's not difficult to lay it down to an open set (i.e. when the board pairs) but before you do so you should have a stab at winning the pot. Against a hidden set, maybe you are letting players see the flop too cheaply with a lower pair than AA or KK which becomes a set? Try raising more pre-flop. It is very tempting to try and trap players in with AA or KK, but remember that these hands are difficult to improve. Better to take a small or medium pot than lose a big one!

[Element187]

usually when i hit a large upswing i will eventually go into a downswing... part of the reason is patience.. i'll get impatient and start over playing my hands. it's like if i'm not making the same money i was the day before, i'll try to force it.

[a500lbgorilla]

A 3 week slide means theres been a shift in your game. It's probably you're getting too passive or too predictably aggressive. You need to figure out what it is and fix it.

-'rilla

[sandstorm]

Talking about shifts in one's game, I came to this conclusion latley after a huge downswing, playing uber sucky sucky:

I have only played on Ladbrokes for a couple of months, but have won money slowly and steady. I think I can thank a tight game, and a patient waiting for the right cards to show up.

Then someting happened. I used empirebacker.com and got 25$ for free at Empirepoker, and decided to try it out. I quickly made those 25 into 125, hitting some good tables and some very fishy players. I tought "hell, this sure is easy" and loosenes up. I played almost every suited connector from every posistion, played KTo and A9o and so on (which I ususally don't do). I started to overvalue TPTK like hell. And I won.

However, when I returned to Ladbrokes after some crazy beats on Empire, I had really caught some bad habits. My game was really loose and over agressive. I kept losing and I couldn't understand why. I tried Empire again, but didn't hit those crazy tables and quickly lost pretty much everything. My whole game was wrecked, and in combination with some bad beats it turned really loose/over-agressive.

I guess I had some bad luck hitting some crazy for a few days tables at Empire, and when I played some normal games I kept playing crazy. I will really try to tighten up again, and play my "A" game like I did before. I need to slow down and think about my game. I should not let a few days of luck ruin my whole game when the luck ends.

My 0.02$. Anyone else experienced this?

[Fnord]

That's why I emphasize the importance of game selction, and adjustment to game conditions, in being a consistent winner.

Game/seat selection is the most under-rated skill in poker.

http://www.barrygreenstein.com/creese.htm

[FishMagician]

http://www.barrygreenstein.com/creese.htm

Chip Reese is my hero.