AA vs. turn c/r

[zook]

Villian is 27/12 over ~50 hands, no specific reads. I thought he could be on a draw from the flop play, but does the turn c/r scream set?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($19.45)
UTG ($33.70)
UTG+1 ($49.95)
Hero ($50.30)
MP2 ($21.50)
CO ($48.75)
Button ($47.20)
SB ($67.35)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 4, 6, 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.5, Hero raises to $5, UTG+1 calls $3.50.

Turn: ($15.75) J (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $10, UTG+1 raises to $28, Hero ???

[LeFou]

certainly looks that way. villain tried to get in cheap as possible, then cute little underbet on flop. But I usually cry-call this stuff. And lose.

[freechus9]

I think I can fold this..that c/r is pretty strong..

[Galapogos]

Does villian's line not seem weird to anyone else here?

[LeFou]

Doesn't seem all that weird to me. If a preflop raiser is behind me and a raggedy board like this sets me, I'll often do a little bet like that. I want AK to catch up a bit. I love getting raised there; sets up a big-money checkraise for the turn.

What's throwing you off?

[Renton]

raise the flop more, you gave him odds to chase.

Something seems fishy about his line and I am not getting away from my hand here. I probably push over the turn raise. (puts on flame retardant suit).

[Galapogos]

What's throwing you off?

I really don't know. I think we have him beat here though. If I had flopped the set, I wouldn't just call the flop reraise. There's a flush on the board and I want to get some money in before it kills our action. So I would throw another bet out there to make sure I got some more money in before the action was killed and to commit the hero into the pot a little more should no spades fall.

The c/r on the turn is odd. Could be a JJ played passively preflop which would definately put us behind but I would be willing to take the risk. Something is just not consistant here which makes me think we're ahead of a poorly executed bluff. Or semi-bluff.

I'm don't use HUDs so I'm not too familiar with the numbers but I gather 27/12 means villian doesn't only play the nuts (am I wrong?)

But yeah I say push the turn.

Renton hook me up with one of those suits please...

[zook]

27/12 is slightly laggy.

For the results-oriented:

UTG+1 raises to $28, Hero raises to $32.80 (All-In), UTG+1 calls $14.45 (All-In).

River: ($101) 4h (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $101

Results in white below:
UTG+1 has 6h 6c (full house, sixes full of fours).
Hero has Ad Ac (two pair, aces and fours).
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $100.65. Hero wins $0.34.

So I lost yet another AA but at least I played it like Renton would have

[LeFou]

If I had flopped the set, I wouldn't just call the flop reraise. There's a flush on the board and I want to get some money in before it kills our action.

HU I'm not even taking the flush cards into account. I put hero on an overpair here, and unless I can put him on an Enormous Overpair I'm letting him take the lead on this flop if he's willing.

I would throw another bet out there to make sure I got some more money in before the action was killed and to commit the hero

That's just getting *your money in there unless he calls.

If Hero has his other likely holding (big unpaired cards) he's Even More Unlikely to call a re-reraise. Talk about killing the action.

[zook]

raise the flop more, you gave him odds to chase.

Oh yeah, good point. That was dumb.

[Rockymv]

l/c, b/c, c/r. What about that line doesn't scream set? I agree the size of the flop bet is a little odd. However, when I played SNG's my standard line was to lead into the PF raiser with a small bet like this when I flopped a set OOP. The idea is to induce a raise. Then I would c/r the turn. Often that would commit themselves with a turn bet.

[jackvance]

I think I go broke here too.. although in theory it's get-away-fromable

[IowaSkinsFan]

the truth is this is exactly how i play sets when my read is an overpair. So fold.

[Renton]

You have his range beat. He got lucky to have the hand he had and you got unlucky. Run this scenario a million times with different hole cards and you will break him in the long run.

[Cocco_Bill]

You have his range beat. He got lucky to have the hand he had and you got unlucky. Run this scenario a million times with different hole cards and you will break him in the long run.

His range includes small pocket pairs here a lot of the time and 99-KK very seldom, do people really limp call these? This looks like a set to me.

[Renton]

His range that beats us is 33, 44, 66. His range that we beat is 55, As3s, XsXs that has overcards, A5, 7s8s, As2s.

I don't know, its close but I can't fold AA here against this player. I wish the sample wasn't so small. If these were his true stats, he has a draw here a whole lot.

[Cocco_Bill]

His range that beats us is 33, 44, 66. His range that we beat is 55, As3s, XsXs that has overcards, A5, 7s8s, As2s.

I don't know, its close but I can't fold AA here against this player. I wish the sample wasn't so small. If these were his true stats, he has a draw here a whole lot.

I think you overestimate how often a draw will take this line. The turn raise screams of a made hand. A strong draw will most often raise the flop and not the turn.

[Lukie]

he's telling you that you're beat, just decide whether or not you believe him.

[relayer]

I have lost so many times to unimproved AA in situations just like this that this is an easy fold for me. Very easy...

[Miffed22001]

raise the flop more, you gave him odds to chase.

Something seems fishy about his line and I am not getting away from my hand here. I probably push over the turn raise. (puts on flame retardant suit).

I totally agree with this.
It seems a clever play that opp called on the flop knowing you would bet the turnand he could c/r all in knowing you liked your hand.
fwiw, this line looks horribly odd for want of another word so im calling/pushing here.[/list]