zook's Picks: NFL Playoffs

[zook]

I missed Week 17 because I went out of town for a few days and didn't get my sportsbetting shit together before I left. Oh well. Great regular season for me, my second best ever:

YTD:
Straight wagers: 25-18
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 2-3
Same game teasers: 1-0
Totals: 1-3
+25.70 units ($771)

Now it's playoff time, which has been great to me in years past. Here are some general guidelines I tend to follow during the playoffs, I'll add more as I think of them.

1) Weight defense and running games heavily, especially in cold weather.

2) Coaching and team playoff experience is crucial. Consider fading QBs making their first postseason start.

3) Don't be scared to bet big favorites. A lot of playoff games are blowouts.

With these in mind, I'm favoring Seattle -3 vs. Dallas for multiple units, the Giants +7 vs. Philly for one unit, New England -9.5 vs. NY and KC M/L (+250) vs. Indy for one unit. The Seattle play is my favorite. Huge homefield advantage, tons of playoff experience in Seattle vs. almost none in Dallas, Cowboys defense has been terrible the last few weeks, Romo making his first postseason start in a hostile environment. I have 2 units on this now, but it could end up being 3 or 4. The Giants pick I'm kind of meh about, but the line just seems to high. The Eagles run defense is suspect and I'm just not convinced the Jeff Garcia fairy tale can continue in the playoffs. I wouldn't take the M/L here, but 7 points is a lot. But I've been underestimating the Eagles for over a month now... I'm a pessimistic Philly sports fan, so keep that in mind before you tail The Pats line is high, but they're just much better than the Jets, imo, and see guideline #3. As for KC, I think they matchup pretty well against Indy and I'll probably put one unit on the M/L and hope Peyton craps the bed in the playoffs yet again.

For now all I have is:

SEA -3 vs. Dal (+104) - 2 units @ Pinny

Thoughts and comments are welcome.

[zook]

Added this:

NE -8.5 vs. NYJ (-102) - 1 unit @ Pinny

[ensign_lee]

For Seattle, don't forget that their #1, #2, and #4 corners are out for hte game.

I was going to go heavy on Seattle as well, but then I saw that. One thing's for sure, I'm probably going to be fading the winner of that game next.

[zook]

For Seattle, don't forget that their #1, #2, and #4 corners are out for hte game.

Thanks lee. I knew Trufant and Herndon were out, didn't know about #4. I didn't weight it heavily because the Seahawks have a good pash rush, which will give Romo fits. We'll see, maybe I'll keep this a 2-unit play...

[zook]

My current plan... 1 unit on KC M/L, wherever it ends up tomorrow morning (+285 right now at Pinny), 1 more unit on NE -8.5 (giving me 2 units), and 1 unit on NYG +7. I'm not adding any more units on Seattle... I still like the bet, but Fezzik just posted Dallas as his play and it looks like the line might move down to -2.5.

Overall, this is the least confident I've felt on the opening weekend of NFL playoffs in 3 years. Anyone else feel the same? I'm already looking forward to next weekend... when I can bet on SD and NO at home and take the M/L on whoever goes to Chicago.

[ensign_lee]

KC won't be at home...

[zook]

meant SD... edited!

[swiggidy]

Overall, this is the least confident I've felt on the opening weekend of NFL playoffs in 3 years. Anyone else feel the same?

Yes!! Since I use such a small roll and don't really follow BR management anyway I like to gambool in the playoffs and put my roll at stake in each round. Last year I tripled through, it was fun.

That's going to have to wait till next week now.

[ensign_lee]

Colts Colts Colts!

Sowwy zook.

[zook]

Colts Colts Colts!

Sowwy zook.

No need to apologize. Not super confident in the Chiefs, just think Peyton craps the bed/LJ runs roughshod enough to make +285 +EV

[elipsesjeff]

Colts Colts Colts!

Sowwy zook.

No need to apologize. Not super confident in the Chiefs, just think Peyton craps the bed/LJ runs roughshod enough to make +285 +EV

I agree, which is why I put a unit down too.

[zook]

Added:

KC M/L vs. IND (+290) - 1 unit
NE -8.5 vs. NYJ (-106) - 1 unit

It's funny, I had some conversations with people whose football opinions I really respect last night and it all lead to the decision to do my first bet buy-back of the season, of my 2 unit Seahawks play. But when I got home the lines weren't up at Pinny, and when I woke up the line had shifted all the way to Sea -1 and I can't even buy Dal +3 at Pinny I think I'd rather stick with Sea -3 than take Dal +2.5 (-112) and risk a half-middle, but maybe lee can advise...

[ensign_lee]

It would be terrible to buy back that.

Definitely -EV with the juice you would have to pay. Just leave it.

[zook]

Yeah... would only be paying 8 cents of juice if I bought back at +2.5, b/c my original bet was +104, but then I leave myself open to a 2 unit loss if the Seahawks win by 3. Not worth it. Oh well, go Hawks...

[zook]

Today didn't go well, but I was pretty sure the Seattle bet was bad and pussed out of buying it back. Unbelieveable game though. Stunning.

I'm loading up on the Pats, my favorite pick of the weekend. Added another unit at -9.5 (+100), and put a unit on the Giants giving me:

NE -8.5 vs. NYJ (-104) - 2 units
NE -9.5 vs. NYJ (+100) - 1 unit
NYG +7 vs. PHI (-106) - 1 unit

Go Pats! And Eagles! (By less than a touchdown.)

[zook]

Well, yesterday SUCKED, but today ROCKED! My 3-unit Pats bet paid off, the Giants covered, and the best part, by far... THE EAGLES WON! What a gift this season has been. After Donovan went down I was rooting for a high draft pick, now I'm dreaming of a win in NO, a Seahawks win in Chicago, and the NFC Championship game in Philadelphia. I did say I'm dreaming

Playoff record:
Sides: 2-1
M/L Dogs: 0-1
1-unit plays: 1-1
2-unit plays: 0-1
3-unit plays: 1-0
+0.86 units

[Harry]

Wow, Eagles win and NYG cover. Niiiice.

[zook]

Wow, Eagles win and NYG cover. Niiiice.

Yeah, just how I drew it up

I bet Philly's blowing up right now... wish I was there!

[ensign_lee]

Nice emotional middle!!!

[Harry]

Wow, Eagles win and NYG cover. Niiiice.

Yeah, just how I drew it up

I bet Philly's blowing up right now... wish I was there!

Oh man you should've seen this place on New Years after we won the division. Drunk people singing "Fly, Eagles, Flllyyyyyy" at the top of their lungs in the middle of broad street.

[zook]

Nice emotional middle!!!

I love this description. Have to remember that

Harry: Philly is such a great sports city... I live in Seattle and the sports fans out here depress me.

[zook]

A look to this weekend... well, this was when it was supposed to get easy. I love betting home teams in these divisional playoff games, because they're generally the better teams, they're rested and have had extra time to prepare. But both AFC matchups are really tough to call. Right now I'm leaning toward San Diego, because without Harrison I think the Pats are going to have a hard time stopping LT. I don't think I'm going to touch Baltimore/Indy. In the NFC, I like the Bears to cover -8.5 vs. the Hawks. Jeff, I know the Bears suck, but trust me, the Seahawks suck more. Grossman is the wild-card, but I don't think Seattle has the secondary to take advantage of him. My favorite pick of the week is New Orleans. I'm worried about the line moving even more, so I just placed this:

NO -5 vs. Phi (-107) - 2 units

I know, betting against my team AGAIN. It's burned me this season, but I'm pretty confident in this one. New Orleans is the best team in the NFC, they have a huge homefield advantage, they're rested and have an explosive offense. If the Eagles get behind they'll have a tough time playing catchup with Garcia (basically haven't had to do it since he took over) and if Lito Sheppard's out (which seems likely) that will really hurt their defense. I don't like that I'm setting myself up for a reverse emotional middle, but it can't be helped...

[elipsesjeff]

In the NFC, I like the Bears to cover -8.5 vs. the Hawks. Jeff, I know the Bears suck, but trust me, the Seahawks suck more. Grossman is the wild-card, but I don't think Seattle has the secondary to take advantage of him.

You don't think its worth +355?

[zook]

You don't think its worth +355?

Meh. I think the key matchup is Grossman vs. the Seattle secondary and it's pretty tough to predict how that will play out... so given the unpredictability, maybe there's value in the Seattle M/L. Personally I like the Bears to cover, if I bet the game at all. Just my 2 cents.

[zook]

Ok, I deposited some $ at Mansion, where US customers can still use their Exchange. I set my card for the weekend, betting on all the home favorites! Upped my Saints bet a unit too.

BAL -4 vs. Indy (+100) - 1 unit
NO -5 vs. Phil (-108) - 3 units
CHI -9 vs. Sea (-107) - 2 units
SD -5 vs. NE (-104) - 1 unit

[zook]

0-2 yesterday, including a brutal reverse emotional middle.

Let's go Bears?

[ensign_lee]

Yeah...I feel for you.

[ssmooth8]

There were definitely a few surprises which took place this weekend. Really wanted to see Chargers top the Patriots but experience definitely takes a big part of being successful as was shown.

[zook]

I won't be putting any $ on the Super Bowl, so it's time to wrap up my NFL season. Regular season was great, the playoffs sucked. If the season hadn't started with the $1K Steelers free bet (thanks again lee!) I might not have done any sportsbetting at all this season. I came very close to breaking a personal single-season $ won record around Week 14, but couldn't quite get over the hump. Still can't complain. Hopefully there will be some good options for depositing into online sportsbooks before the NFL season kicks off in the fall...

Regular season record:
Straight wagers: 25-18
2-team teasers: 7-1
3-team teasers: 2-3
Same game teasers: 1-0
Totals: 1-3
+25.70 units (+$771)

Playoff record:
Sides: 2-5
M/L Dogs: 0-1
-6.14 units (-$184.20)

Overall: +19.56 units (+$586.80)
With free bets: ~+$1750