Stack-a-donk bluff line

[Silly String]

Villain is a 14/12 nitty tag. He has 3bet a couple times, but I'd venture to say he's nittier than aggro over our first 50 hands.
I'm running a little hot at 21/25 or so. Prob. thinks I steal a lot, well, because I do.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($105.20)
Button ($104.80)
SB ($112.50)
BB ($170.70)
UTG ($100)
MP ($126.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, Q.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) K, 2, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $14, Hero raises to $94.2,

Villain has $79.80 left for total pot of $208 after rake if called. I realize this is a bit of a spew but I need the example to confirm my math. The way I figure I need him to fold 55% of the time to make this profitable, right?

I figure I'm a 3:1 dog vs his calling range(KTs+, KJo, KQo, 77, 22), so if he calls I lose approx. -$45
MATH:
25% of the time I win $104 = $26
75% of the time I lose (-$94) = (-$71)
So EV if called = (-$45)

But if he folds I win $37 every time.

Now If I can get him to fold more than 55% of the time I profit
MATH:
If he folds: $37 x .55 = $20.35
If he calls: (-$45) x .45 = (-$20.25)
Sum is ~0 right?


My question isn't so much on the play, but on the math. IF I figure I can get him to lay down everything but sets and AK, how's this look?

If my math is wrong please show me where or if there is an easier way to do the calcs please show me how. Possibly a trick for doing them quicker in your head.

[holdin2]

I'm running a little hot at 21/25 or so.

Wow. Winner for most aggressive player ever. This must include the times you stare into the button's eyes and call out a raise from the BB out of turn and get him to fold?

Math looks good to me.

Edit: Actually, I think you need to include the $11 in the pot of yours already for what you can win....so 25% of $114, etc.

[Galapogos]

How often has he continued past the flop? ie fold to c-bet %?

[Silly String]

I don't have that stat on HUD and we only have about 50 hands so that stat won't be accurate over such a small sample. In other words, I have no idea but none with me.

I usually run 21/17 so 25/21 is a little hot for me. Just thought I'd include my image for critique purposes.

[Galapogos]

The thing is, this is a pretty read dependent line to pull on a nit. Don't worry about how you appear, they rarely care. I'd rather just bet the turn again. When you check and he bets he likely has a hand he really likes and will almost always call a crai with because you can't really put him a float. And he's not usually betting a mediumish PP. Plus you look insanely bluffy, no one over shoves a set here.

[Galapogos]

Also, there's a reason stack-a-donk is a popular value line.

[UG]

14/12's hardly ever call the flop and bet the turn when checked to with a hand they don't really really really like (I know, I used to be one)...against a different opponent this can be good but not against this guy.

I think Galapogos pretty much nailed it, just reiterating some of what he said.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

since you can plausibly have K-Q/A-K or a set i think this line is fine versus a nit. id expect him to always fold K-10/K-J and fold K-Q about half the time.

nh

[Deanglow]

I think I would just double barrel the turn most of the time and see what the river brings. This looks a lot like a draw and I think a committing 3x+ raise looks stronger.

[Genitruc]

If he's a decent hand-reader I prefer bet-fold or check-call

betting will set up a potentially profitable river bluff or value-bet

check-call lets you stack his 78/set hand cuz without looking at the riv you should insta-check it to him and make it look like a calldown line.

[Genitruc]

re : math

I think the general rule of thumb for doing the math on the fly is to ask yourself how crushed you are by his calling range. If you're not too fked and there's a decent bit of dead money, and he can be bluffing a small to medium frequency, then it starts to approach breakeven/profitable.

Yours seems good to me.

[Silly String]

Thanks for the response everyone. I was really checking the math to make sure I was right about the % to make villain fold to be BE.
I got a lot more discussion than I anticipated.
Results in white:
Villain thought for most of his timebank and then called with KJ. It kinda shocked me b/c I thought he would fold everything but AK and he should be 3betting AK so I thought I would certainly get a fold. I guess he thought my overbet push was too bluffy, or he's a much bigger station than I thought. I didn't catch.

[Genitruc]

damn if you had hit your flush this play would ve been so much more sexy