A few thoughts I guess.
So we're saying nit villain will flat a hand like TT or JJ from the sb behind 3 other calls, and then on the flop lead into 3 people including the UTG pfr on a K-hi board? Then on the turn, leads into 2 people again including the UTG pfr. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it's a stretch.
We aren't the pfr and we passively call down flop and turn (rightly I feel), including calling behind on the flop. Villain can't put us on a hand this strong, but it doesn't matter because if villain is firing a third barrel with full houses he's doing it with Kx because Kx and full houses are the same thing - a hand better than how weak/showdown bound our hand looks - and he can't afford to damage his 1.5bb/100 nit winrate by letting us check back.
So essentially, villains ranges look like this to me:
Bet river: full houses, Kx, randomly valuetowning himself with a pocket pair if he has one but I don't think this is a big part of his range.
Check/shove river: Rarer than the above but full houses and sometimes Kx.
Check/call river: Uhhhhh. Sometimes he'll maybe suck at getting value with Kx and c/c like Minisim said but that doesn't seem anywhere near as likely to me as him barrelling the river.
Check/fold: QdJd, JdTd, Td8d and random other draws.
Ultimately, I don't want to have to bet/fold this river but I'm not comfortable calling, and I feel like if I shove I don't know what to expect villain to call with. If we bet we make him fold his draws/weird stuff he led so strongly two streets with, so I check to see what he had and not value town myself vs his continuing range.
Really interesting hand and a good discussion, I'd love to know Pocketfours reasoning for checking the river.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Dex
