So hows about a hero call here?

[jaytoi]

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

[sven00100]

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

There is theory behind everything, and I think what you are suggesting may apply here, but I also don't think it is nearly enough to be making a call to 2x+ pot shove AI on the river. -EV overall, but an interesting TYPE of situation to look at. Posting it, and analyzing it, regardless is good. You don't seem to be trying to bash and defend your call even though the results favored you. Hopefully some of these other things will come into your mind if you get a similar hand. Maybe it will be justified by a larger sample size, or ridiculous river all ins, and you'll be making a flying call with +EV on top pair, or plugging a hole in the boat! I know people here help me fix my leaky boat (with channels to let the fish in of course )

[daven]

yeh ur right i mean this should be in fuckin tales of poker or something really.
"when i was tilted and made a lucky call"
i'm pretty much taking the piss if i try to apply theory to any of this

nah, i think there is something to be gained from this. You see how strong top pair + is against maniac fish, and how valuable small sample size reads can sometimes be. Like, based on reads your play is great if you had something like J9s, but you'd get slammed for it by people too often.

i read something really interesting a few days ago about sample size and reads and uber-fish. You don't get a good sample size on uber-fish cos they don't last long enough... so you have to be prepared to go with it sometimes. higher in stakes you go the more this applies as conditional probability (or something) tells you that a player you have no stats on is more likely to be bad than solid (assuming you are a reg with decent volume in your game, and because the player pool decreases in size as you move up). For example, the hand i posted is fine vs a villain such as the one you described, and awful vs some (only some!) regs.