Bubble play ICM and AK

[3 pairs should be a hand]

The buy in is really not relevant I don't think - tho u more knowledgable people may be able to tell me different (we are looking at buyins of $5,10,20,50 and 100)

I only have two examples and am sorry but don't have the hands to post. One was mine and the other a friends.

Both times a player had shoved and we were holding AKoff. We haven't run enough hands to establish the ICM and are both scratching our heads.

It really is a generalistic question as to whether you should call a shove holding AK on the bubble. And some guidance with consideration to the variables would be most appreciated.

Case one (me). I'm on bb with AK (around 1700) utg (around 3.5) folds. Button (around 1500) shoves. sb (around 3.5) folds. blind 300. Background button is loose vp above 30 and two hands previously had lost around half his stack. I called and he turned over A7. My hand held up.

Case two (my friend). Blinds again 300. He had 1900ish on bb. utg and button with between 2-2.5 fold and chip leader, around 6k shoves. Hero calls, villain shows Q8off. Hits either the 8 or the Q. Hero bubbles.

re the numbers I realise they are out a bit but memory is a bit woolly

[Duffryn]

Both cases you give are calls imho. The main factors to consider are the bubble factor (or ICM), stack sizes and the pusher's range.

As you probably know, with 4 players you are on the bubble and so you need to get your money in when you are pretty likely to be well ahead. So in case 2, if he is just pushing 99+, AQ+ then AK is about 50/50 to win, but you would have to fold because that's not nearly a good enough edge. In fact according to SNG Wiz - a program that has a free trial that you might like to at least investigate - he has to be pushing at least 17% of his hands for this to be a call. All except the very clueless or terminally nitty will be shoving at least that wide in the small blind in my opinion, so I would call.

However, if your friend had a much bigger stack, say 6000 too, then he would have been correct to fold AK. Big stack v big stack means a huge bubble factor and even if the small blind was shoving any 2 cards, it is still unprofitable to call with AK, according to Wiz. This is fairly intuitive. As your friend found out, AK is at best about 65% to win against any two live cards and so calling means a 35% chance that you get eliminated and the 2.5K stacks get their hands on the prize money you had a good chance of winning.

As it was though, in both cases you had the smallest or almost the smallest stack, so you need less of an edge. In case 1, the shortest stack is shoving on you. If you fold he overtakes you in chips. You only have 6BB, so you are under some pressure to act. You have AK, so its pretty likely you will be at least a coin flip against him and you could be well ahead. Its not a brilliant spot, but its likely to be the best you will see for a while. So call and if the worst happens, you will still have a few chips. In fact if the button is shoving 10% of his hands, (which would be a very conservative range for a loosish player with 5BBs on the BTN), WIz has 99+, AQ+ as profitable in this spot.

[drmcboy]

We haven't run enough hands to establish the ICM and are both scratching our heads.

?

[taipan168]

I'm having a hard time figuring out the stack sizes here, what does "around 3.5" mean?

It really is a generalistic question as to whether you should call a shove holding AK on the bubble. And some guidance with consideration to the variables would be most appreciated

There really isn't any "generalistic" advice that I can give you here. ICM is absolutely critical, which in turn is so dependent upon stack sizes and reads. If you can post the detailed stack sizes then I can analyse the hands more easily.

[fulksy]

i think 3.5 = 3500 chips

defiantly download sngwiz free trial. i haven't purchased it yet just cause i haven't been able to play enough, but just going over every bubble hand history during the free trial gave me a pretty good understanding of bubble play, and usually have pretty decent idea of whats +EV in most situations. but theirs still lots of spots were I'm not sure so if your BR can afford it defiantly worth getting.

like taipan said every situation is unique and depends on ranges, and stack sizes. in both your examples your the short stack, so call (pretty generic answer, but its hard without actual hand histories).

[paratrooper99]

sounds like these are turbos. if everyone is 5-6 bb or less, I shove with slightly lower ev hands than ak off. I call pp over 10s, AK and AQ. But as the other posts demostrate stack size is essential. If you have a player with one or two BB left, dont call your chips off with AK or even KK or AA on bubble. Sounds crazy but if you have one player with a severe short stack, lay down the AA and move on. SNG strategy is not to play for first until you are in the money unlike tournaments.

[taipan168]

Sounds crazy but if you have one player with a severe short stack, lay down the AA and move on. SNG strategy is not to play for first until you are in the money unlike tournaments.

Other tournaments (eg. DONs, satellites) are different but there are basically no realistic situations in normal 1-table SNGs where you do not have enough equity with AA to call a shove, even big stack vs big stack. I agree with you that there are definitely times to fold hands like AK and even KK in certain situations however.

[3 pairs should be a hand]

Thanks guys for your comments. Unfortunately I cannot give the exact stack sizes in either example. Both occurred before I registered here, so I was posting from memory, plus my friend's example was outlined to me also after the event.
I didn't realise that a "generalistic" answer wasn't possible.
@drmcboy - My comment I realise reading it back is confusing - I meant by that that we had not found ourselves in that situation ie with AK to a shove often enough to know if in terms of ICM it was right to call/fold. However reading everyone's comments I realise the answer is dependant on each particular situation.

We understand the concept of ICM, however, neither of us have purchased sitngowiz yet - I can hear the groans... However it is my next poker purchase.

In addition we have been looking at the training sites out there. I'm focusing on stt sngs at mo and have had a look at sitnngogrinders (the write ups I've read on it are positive). There are packages with them where wiz is included in the subsrciption, so I'm considering that - u pay for wiz n the videos are effectively free (they're not but the price reduction is very good).

So apologies for the ignorance, but I am playing catch up pretty fast.

ps by3.5 i meant 3.5k, guess i should've just put 3500 so @ taipan, thanks in future I will post hands in the normal way so you have full info - don't worry bout giving me an answer on this occasion. The replies given already have been of enough benefit so that I know what my next move is. IE You really do need wiz, no two ways about it.

[Poker Orifice]

Why consider investing in WIZ if you haven't even checked out the free trial yet? I forget how long it runs for but it'll give you alot of time to run alot of stuff & should help with late stage play.