10/10 in the BB

[soupie]

[6/30/2010 2:32:05 PM] nosoupieforyou: [Wednesday, June 30, 2010 11:33 AM] nosoupieforyou:
<<< PokerStars Game #46186086542: Tournament #318010643, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2010/06/30 17:30:24 ET
Table '318010643 48' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: petrik_1973 (3360 in chips)
Seat 2: olmmom (8190 in chips)
Seat 3: 12eeDe12 (5120 in chips)
Seat 4: soupie (7970 in chips)
Seat 5: sabioteman (30885 in chips)
Seat 6: RLPQ (13510 in chips)
Seat 7: tomtomdub (4380 in chips)
Seat 8: jimmyhol (6070 in chips)
Seat 9: strflushtome (5550 in chips)
12eeDe12: posts small blind 100
soupie: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to soupie [Td Ts]
sabioteman: calls 200
RLPQ: folds
tomtomdub: folds
jimmyhol: calls 200
strflushtome: folds
petrik_1973: calls 200
olmmom: folds
12eeDe12: folds

Been a lot of discussion this hand, what do you here with 10/10, 4 and half bb's in the pot and a 40 bb stack. I have asked about 10 different competent players and we can't even come close to a consencous. Let me know if u have answer. Thanks.

[drmcboy]

1200

[fjuanl]

i like 1200-1400. i dont like shoving so much because it makes their decisions pretty easy and typically won't result in them making big mistakes.

(assuming you shove)
UTG wont be limp/calling 40bbs with much worse.
2nd limper can't really have much of a limp behind/call all in for 30bbs range.
3rd limper might make some mistakes given he has about 17bbs and may decide to gamble.

[drmcboy]

i could see limping at tough tables but never here, I'd raise 88+. If you want to raise like 2750 I think that's OK too but not as good.

[chardrian]

the world has run amok. soupie is posting on ftr again!

stats matter so hard to give a real good reply. Raising to 1200 as your default is ok but only if you know what you are doing postflop because it makes for some seriously awkward stack to pot ratios when you get called (6700 behind and a pot of 3-4k). And in a $10 tourney you will get called a lot here.

shoving is ok since you pick up 700 chips almost all the time which is like 10% of your stack. And again your table/general players in $10 matter here. In a tourney with more competent players, shoving here is probably pretty bad since as fjuan said you will only be getting called by better and making worse fold. In a $10 tourney where people might call you with 99- here because they will snap put you on AK and AK only then shoving makes some more sense.

drmcboy's suggestion of setting up the go'n'go by raising to 2750 is actually a pretty good one in a tourney like this since that play works best against retards.

[soupie]

I guess I lived in my own little world because when I shove these spots people tend to call me with small pocket pairs and exclude hands like kj from their calling range. It seems like they see an overshove and decide its ak and they want to gamble.

It also seems to me that shoving has the greatest chip expectation far and away as you pick up 900 chips most of the time and I expect to be ahead most of the time when I'm called with limpers. My 2 cents.

[mcatdog]

1200

Perfect. I think assuming they fold overcards and call with underpairs is a severe case of optimistic range syndrome. 1200 also lets you get away if UTG decides to beat you over the head and tell you he has AA, like if he limp-reraises to 3000.

I'd rather quit poker than limp in a $10 tournament.

[drmcboy]

I think you get 1 call pre then 1 fold post so often with 1200. often you can make super small c bet. Or jam against some of the shorties on flop. If everyone calls it's gamble time but I don't think it's a tough spot usually.

how high does the pair need to be before you don't shove?

[FlyingSaucy]

I'd rather quit poker than limp in a $10 tournament.

Qft.

I agree with 1200. Also shoving seems like the worst possible move, worse than folding even. You pick up a few BBs most of the time but occasionally get busted by JJ+ trappers. At least with folding you are limiting your exposure to tricky multiway flops. Still we're 40 deep, you've got a lot of wiggle room.

[soupie]

I thought I would try to explain my reasoning and respond a bit. Its not personal to anyone. Most forums are so full of arrogant, mathoholics that it really hard to have a decent discussion. My opinion is based on math, psychology and experience. I have a lot of experience so I'm allowed.

In this particular spot, there are 4 and 1/2 BB's out there before I do anything. Those BB's belong to 3 people who have shown no strength and are in a 10 rebuy tournament. In addition, they are unknown to me and so they get the credit of an unknown. 90 percent of unknown players play for recreation and are feeding the poker economy. God bless them because poker will not.

So I give them a range of an unknown player limping. Small pocket pairs, suited connectors, semi strong broadway cards, and Ax. That is my experience is what they limp. Argue with my range if you like, but thats mostly true, and a decent assumption for this situation.

So now it's my turn to act with 3 limpers in the field and 4 and 1/2 BB's to play for with my 40 BB stack. All of the options go through my mind, I dont just autoshove, I think as follows:

I can check and go to the flop oop with pocket 10's with 3 other players. I will flop a set 8 percent of the time, face a flop with a least 1 overcard most of the time and be even more unhappy if it is all undercards as that still connects with their range far to often. I have the 5th best hand and yet I only like the flop when I flop a set. That sucks. Almost always I have the best hand preflop and have to sweat 3 streets putting a lot of my stack at risk to figure it out.

I can raise to 1200 or there abouts. I like this option better as I now have some idea where I am at and can play postflop with much more certainty. The problem I have with this option is that everyone calls me, my name is soupie, no one folds to soupie, I have always gotten an inordiate amount of action my entire life. When i raise to 1200, everyone calls especially in 10 dollar rebuys. I can fold for an hour straight and shove I still get called by 83s or something ridiculous. If that is not your experience, I apologize, buts its mine and I own it. I have been playing Stars mtt's since the first day they offered them and they just dont fold to me.

Then my mind got to the shove option. About half the time they all fold and I pick 4 and 1/2 BB's immediately. Mmmmm, yummy. I know my average expectation with 10/10 is just over 1 BB over a million hands so 4 and half sounds good to me. Better than that however is that I find they mostly call me small pocket pairs. The very best hands I want to play with for all my chips. I dont care if I get it all in way ahead and get 2 outered. The structure is not good enought to allow me to be very patient. I will take an 80/20 spot everytime.

Most of the people who have argued with me in this spot, dont make the money near as much as me. They tell me they value their tournament life so they wont shove there because they dont want to get it all in yet they bust before the money much more often. That is an enigma. Shoving there is actually much lower variance as you will mostly just pick up the chips and when u get it in, you are ahead often. I get so confused talking to the math guys.

I say this often to people, you are allowed to make any decision at a poker table if your reasons are strong enough. Dont let the dogmatic assumptions of math rule your poker decisions. When you know something, don't just say I have to do this because so and so would call me a donk if I did it. Have the courage to let people call u a donk and be proud.

Aloha

[FlyingSaucy]

If that is not your experience, I apologize, buts its mine and I own it.

I didn't want this excellent reply to go completely to a mute audience. I hear where you are coming from and I admit to having very little MTT exposure in recent years. Most of my dislike of push is based on a thought process and not experience.

The above quote though is going in my poker log. It seems experience needs to be individually owned more than anything else. You can gain experience through practice but it is worthless unless you take ownership of it. Not even sure if you meant this in the same profound way I interpretted it.

[soupie]

Thanks for the kind words FlyingSaucy.

I reviewed this hand for quite a while with Glory2God who is an accomplished mtt player. Although I wont get him to post his thoughts, I can relate them.

He was the only good player who completely agreed with me. What he pointed out was a raise of 1200 or so does nothing but make a bigger pot to play your 10/10's oop. The UTG limper has 154 BB's behind and just is never going to fold to my raise. With his call imminent, the 2 limpers behind become much more likely to call making the hand much more difficult to play and likely much less profitable than a shove.

It is important in situations like this to be able to somewhat predict how your opponents are going to react to your raise and determine if that is your ideal outcome. If you really want 3 callers with your 10's and to play a big pot oop then for you, that is the proper raise. I personally can not see it.

What really happened? I shove, 2 folds, the guy with 14 BB's in late position snapped called with A7o and he binked an ace.

Aloha

[drmcboy]

and likely much less profitable than a shove.

can you post the math behind this statement

[Roller]

Winner Winner Chicken Dinner 1200 it is.

1200 ...........

[soupie]

can you post the math behind this statement

The only easy math in this problem is the shove option. You pick up 4.5 BB's if they all fold and beyond that, its all guess work. So.... lets guess.

I expect to called when i shove about 50% of the time by one of the limpers and when they call I expect to have about 60% equity in the pot (see my range in a previous post) The pot size when I am called will be 16440, 13140, or 7620.

Making the assumption I will only be called by one player and each player is equally likely to call the shove, when I am called the pot on average will be 12400.

With 60 percent equity in this imaginary pot I exect to be returned 7440 chips with an investment of 5750. Giving me an average return of 1690 chips or 8 1/2 BBs.

Given a 50/50 fold to 1 caller ratio. I expect the shove to pick up 1295 chips everytime i shove or about 6 and 1/2 BB's.

The math behind raising 3 limpers in the BB and all the different scenerios is beyond me. My sense of it however is that there is no way you will on average pick up any where near 6.5 BB's raising in this particular spot with these limpers.

I would love someone to provide a proof.

Aloha

[drmcboy]

if the math is beyond you (I think it is beyond everyone) why is it here? At best you could say shoving is the lowest variance play, but I don't see how you can say there is "no way" raising doesn't make more money when we don't know how much raising makes. You also did not post any reads/stats which would make a big difference, including your image/lack there of.


Also if you are not comfortable playing post flop shoving is for sure better. Maybe that is the difference, I just don't see a lot of bad outcomes to raising pre. Again everyone staying in means we need a good flop, but there is lots of money in and we have the best hand & an SPR of < 2

To me forcing people to fold with the terrible hands they limped with rather than make a bad call is helping them to play better, plus they will be less likely to limp going forward.


You never answered me above - if you shove TT where is the line - why not shove TT+ or TT-QQ?

[revolvingiris]

Very interesting post soupie...I think where the gray area comes in is the fact that psychology cannot be accounted for mathematically. One thing a very bright poker player brought to my attention was tendency and frequency. She stated that if someone has a tendency to stack off light then your frequency of offering this opponent the opportunity to do so should be high, the reverse is also true.

Now say for example you shove here and villain will call with A7o and others like it 10% of the time. That means 90% of the time you make 4.5bb and 10% your AI (if this were HU). Since I doubt villain limps here with AA-QQ, AK-AQ more than 1% of the time I'll break this down like such:

Hand 0: 69.844% { TT }
Hand 1: 30.156% { AhAs, KhKs, QhQs, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, TcTh, 99-22, AsKs, AsQs, AJs-A5s, AhKc, AhKs, AcQd, AJo-A6o }

****I gave villain 1 hand combo of AA-QQ, AK-AQ each since I cant see this being the case too often and I gave JJ 3 combos. Remember this is only the calling range and not the entire limping range.****

So we can see that TT is 70% vs the calling range of villain. Soupie has 8k in chips and the pot will be 16700 if he is called by sabioteman. When soupie is called his equity is 11550 for a gain of 3550:

total chips/chips made/chips made divided by current BB
edit: total chips = total pot when called * equity when called

Sabioteman: 11550/3550/ 17.75bb
Jimmyhol: 8848/2778/ 13.89bb
petrik_1973: 5054/1694/ 8.49bb

Soupie makes (((17.75+13.79+8.49)/3)*.3) + (4.5bb*.7) = 4.003+3.15= 7.153bb on average when shoving into these 3 players.

FWIW I gave sabo and jimmy the same range and widened petriks a little since he is shorter. Since we dont have reads this is meant just as an example but I would assume its somewhat accurate. I also rounded TT to 70% since it makes the typing a tad easier.


edit 2: just saw that soupie did the same thing I did.

[fjuanl]

Those BB's belong to 3 people who have shown no strength and are in a 10 rebuy tournament.

If this is still during the rebuy period, it changes the dynamic completely and I think it becomes a clear shove pre

I expect to called when i shove about 50% of the time by one of the limpers...

That's much more than I would have guessed...maybe you are in the rebuy period. I think its a big stretch to assume on average each limper will always call your shove with around 22-AA, AK-A9 and most broadways (16.6% x 3 limpers = 50%)

I would love someone to provide a proof.

Me too! I don't think this type of math has been done correctly before though