70 FO 2nd pair vs over bet jam

[drmcboy]

V is running 48/30 over 27 hands. I'm running 20/16ish, nothing much has happened since he sat down.

couple orbits ago I raised pre with 43hh he called from BB with AJo and peeled the KT8r flop. It checks down and I win with a 4 OTR.

No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 60/120 Blinds (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

SB (t3840)
BB (t9230)
UTG (t4530)
Hero (MP) (t5945)
CO (t2580)
Button (t8208)

Hero's M: 33.03

Preflop: Hero is MP with J, 9
1 fold, Hero bets t310, 3 folds, BB calls t190

Flop: (t680) K, 7, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t480, BB calls t480

Turn: (t1640) 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t1640) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t600, BB raises t8440 (All-In), Hero ?

[Im_new]

Your river bet looks like a value bet, so I doubt he's bullshitting you often enough call him. I put him on J7 and fold.

[Im_new]

I'm very curious to see your thought process in a spot like this....and your decision.

[fjuanl]

400 on the flop gets his air to fold and doesn't look that weak. I like the river sizing and don't see any problems with bet/folding. Obviously you can't really have TPTK+ with this line but there's plenty of value to be had from 33-66, 7x, 88-TT and I wouldn't assume someone would decide to turn those hands into bluffs

[revolvingiris]

I think its fine if you folded. The history you mentioned is the exact same as this scenario but now you bet the river. Idk if villain is aware or not but I doubt they are making this play with worse.

[drmcboy]

so what is everyone putting him on?

[fjuanl]

Pretty much KJ, 77, 22, 55 (15 combos?)

Looks like 1.49/1 odds...so he needs to have how many bluffing combos? ugh.

I don't see how he ever has less than 1 pair besides AQ. I guess if you are facing someone who actually has the thought of raising with his bluffcatchers, his HUD stats are probably about right

And apparently if he only has 15 combos of value than just having AQ in his bluffing range is plenty enough to call? If I'm not butchering the math this is looking almost like a clear call when you consider that
a) he'll sometimes make a smaller c/r for value
b) he may do this with some bluffcatchers

[drmcboy]

yeah a) was the thing in my mind, when he has the value hands how often does he also think I can call this big of a raise? Surely he assumes I need AK+?

PS re the 480 vs 400 I like to bet post flop in blind increments, gives me a little bit of randomization with sizing plus it's easier with lots of tables. Normally I'd bet 360 here with no histroy but given other hand I thought I should go higher.

[revolvingiris]

I agree with fjuanl with the range but I also think AJ is in there...

From personal donking around and calling these bets it always ends up being a better than average hand. They spaz out and think it looks weak when really their line makes no sense and kills a ton of equity from hands that would have paid them off.

[drmcboy]

you're saying he jams AJ for value or as a bluff?

[chardrian]

22 and 77 don't make a ton of sense since he is most likely c/r the flop with those hands to get stacks.

so 55, 57, KJ, J7, KK and JJ are his most likely holdings. His bluff range is pretty wide too.

Chipwise a herocall here can't be the worst thing ever. Tourneywise this is likely a fold for me tho.

[Im_new]

results?

I'm really intrigued by this hand.

[drmcboy]

I called, he had QJ!

As I was closing the table he said (he was chatting off and on with one of other guys at table) "Did I just jam that for value?" so I assume that means he was trying to get me to fold a weak king or QQ? and magic'd his way to the win. Sadly his friend did not reply so we'll never know if he soul read me.

I judged the operation a success, but the patient died.

[revolvingiris]

you're saying he jams AJ for value or as a bluff?

I'm saying he was probably playing based on his hole cards and not a lot of thought went into what might actually call it off. Its weird because these types of players mesh their whole range into this type of play and there isnt a ton of variation.

[drmcboy]

huh?

[revolvingiris]

I'm saying these types of players don't think before they make a play. They see they have a pair, 2pair, set, whatever and just shove with their whole range (usually doesn't include air).

Again, this is just from my experiences so take it for FWIW.

[FTR Bad Beat]

I fold it. Looks like a slowplay for sure.