Bad bubble re-shove

[Alpine021]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 22 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t2975)
BB (t4803)
UTG (t3832)
Button (t1890)

Hero's M: 13.22

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
UTG bets t450, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2975 (All-In), 1 fold, UTG calls t2525

Bad re-shove? And from his point of view what's his calling range?

Villain was 18/9 over about 200 hands.... pretty solid on sharkscope which is why I thought his range was pretty wide.

[taipan168]

You have to take into account the fact that UTG is raising into three players, none of whom are desperate and with the big stack in the BB. Combine that with the 18/9 stat and a decent sharkscope rating and I think that means that AJs doesn't fare too well against whatever it is that he is raising.

Have you run this in SNG Wiz?

[Alpine021]

It was the stacks that gave me the headache as obv shorter I'm shoving regardless. So is this maybe a tight pass? I don't like flatting and a 3-bet of around 1600 or whatever would be half my stack.

Also is him raising into 3 people on the button even with effective stacks mentioned still fairly wide? I mean it includes lots of mid to high pairs, high broadways, mid-high aces etc. most of which are a fold to a shove plus it's for almost all his stack.

This was pretty tough. WIZ trial has run out and haven't bought it yet as have been playing DONs.....

[fulksy]

has he raised, then folded before? i agree with taipan. but i do think it could be fairly close.

[Alpine021]

What u mean just fold p/f? Can't remember if he has raised folded before...

[taipan168]

Ran this through SNG Wiz with UTG raising 12% (44+, A9o+, A7s+, KQs) and calling your shove with 3% (JJ+, AK) and this was -1.6% EV. Don't know that an 18/9 player would be raising or calling any wider than this.

[Fielmann]

I'd fold this so fast that second later I wouldn't remember what I folded. Reasons for folding:

- raiser being tight
- raiser having big stack
- raiser raising from UTG
- it being bubble
- there being a smaller stack around
- you having a quite comfortable stack of M well above 10
- there being a danger of BB waking up with a big hand


P.S. The Wizard can analyze DONs perfectly well. I'd say for a DON specialist it's even more essential to have it as plays can get even more counter-intuitive.

[drmcboy]

This was pretty tough. WIZ trial has run out and haven't bought it yet as have been playing DONs.....

[fulksy]

Ran this through SNG Wiz with UTG raising 12% (44+, A9o+, A7s+, KQs) and calling your shove with 3% (JJ+, AK) and this was -1.6% EV. Don't know that an 18/9 player would be raising or calling any wider than this.

yea i would say his raising range is probably a tad tighter so defiantly a fold.

[drmcboy]

If we assume UTG knows what he is doing, should BB shove ATC here (if it folds to him)? Does that lead us to say UTG should ship his entire raising range rather than opening?

PS fulksy could we see some pics of defiant folds?

[fulksy]

PS fulksy could we see some pics of defiant folds?

lol i guess it would be a rebellious fold

but i also think its definitely a fold.

[Alpine021]

I'd fold this so fast that second later I wouldn't remember what I folded. Reasons for folding:

- raiser being tight
- raiser having big stack
- raiser raising from UTG
- it being bubble
- there being a smaller stack around
- you having a quite comfortable stack of M well above 10
- there being a danger of BB waking up with a big hand


P.S. The Wizard can analyze DONs perfectly well. I'd say for a DON specialist it's even more essential to have it as plays can get even more counter-intuitive.

Why are you saying this is so obvious?

a) Tight raisers raisers open their range not only on the bubble but when play gets shorthanded
b) raiser has average stack relative to the table
c) you can't call it UTG four handed. It's practically in essence a cut-off raise
d) it being bubble just means he wont raise with garbage. He is still (or should be) raising with the non premium hands that I mentioned.
e) The short stack is not that short and has a reasonable M (at this stage) of 8.5
f) Me having a decent M I agree with
g) Danger of BB waking up with a big hand is always a possibility.

I'm not against you but this is nowhere near totally clear cut. According to Moshman AJs heads up is a top 5% head-up (assuming BB gets out of the way as he will without the pretty much AA or KK as he was tight).

My main point in this whole hand is I'm expecting him to fold a lot of the time - especially as a call and loss cripples him.

[Alpine021]

As for Wiz with DONs - as nobody seems to post hands on here I'm not sure how to calculate calling ranges. People are a lot tighter as it's about surviving.

Do people not play them? I do really well in them but do get some in some tough spots.

[drmcboy]

start with the defaults you would use for standard SNGs and/or worst hands people are calling you with and go from there.

[Fielmann]

a) Tight raisers raisers open their range not only on the bubble but when play gets shorthanded

It is better not to assume such things until villain actually demonstrates it.

b) raiser has average stack relative to the table

What counts is that he's got a considerably bigger stack than you.

c) you can't call it UTG four handed. It's practically in essence a cut-off raise

It doesn't matter how you call it. We're discussing poker, not linguistics.

d) it being bubble just means he wont raise with garbage. He is still (or should be) raising with the non premium hands that I mentioned.

How it being bubble affects his range is not very important. What matters is that on the bubble the ICM-factor gets particularly big. Read 'Kill Everyone'.

e) The short stack is not that short and has a reasonable M (at this stage) of 8.5

The size of the small stack in M's is irrelevant. The point is that the presence of the small stack pumps up your ICM-factor vs bigger stacks. (Once again: read 'Kill Everyone'.)

g) Danger of BB waking up with a big hand is always a possibility.

Which is why it is always a reason to re-shove tighter from the SB.

AJs is a top 5% head-up
I'm expecting him to fold a lot of the time

These facts are probably true, but the fact that this is a profitable shove does not automatically follow from them. What you need to do is to assign ranges for CO to raise and call your shove, feed these ranges into Wizard and see what you get.

[TRimming1]

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