($27) K8s, K high flop

[taipan168]

Opp's stats were 25/16/2.5 over about 240 hands. I think I have played him before and from memory he was quite aggressive. What's your flop move? Is he picking off my supposed flop c-bet or does he have the goods?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO (t2785)
Button (t1470)
Hero (SB) (t3090)
BB (t1750)
UTG (t1470)
MP1 (t1470)
MP2 (t1465)

Hero's M: 68.67

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 8
5 folds, Hero bets t120, BB calls t90

Flop: (t240) Q, 9, K (2 players)
Hero bets t180, BB raises to t380, Hero ????

[ed cooper]

call i think and see if he slows down on turn. goal to see a cheap showdown. if he bets aggressively on turn let it go.

tai, is this a standard raising spot for you with k8s or were you feeling aggressive on this occasion? were you influenced by your stack size?

[taipan168]

tai, is this a standard raising spot for you with k8s or were you feeling aggressive on this occasion? were you influenced by your stack size?

Folded to in the SB with an above average hand, why not raise it?

[ed cooper]

Folded to in the SB with an above average hand, why not raise it?

because it costs us too much to find out where we are when a king hits?

truly, i dont mind the raise, i just thought that typical stategy had us raising with the higher part of our range than this.

with a more creative hand like k10s would you raise (assuming no action) or see a flop cheaply?

[taipan168]

because it costs us too much to find out where we are when a king hits?

Will it? Stacks are still pretty deep.

with a more creative hand like k10s would you raise (assuming no action) or see a flop cheaply?

Why would you limp in this spot? If you raise, that gives you a chance to win the pot on the flop even if you don't hit (by c-betting).

[Duffryn]

It's a very small raise, just a bit more than x2. The villain is either trying not to scare you off or is making a cheap raise with a weakish hand. I think it is more likely to be the latter. JT is the only non-vulnerable monster. KQ, K9, 99 would probably be raised big by an agressive player, especially on a relatively scary board. There are loads of pair + straight draw hands and I would guess he is raising with one of those hands: KJ, QJ, QT, JJ, T9 etc.

If you call, then there will be 1K in the pot and 1K left in his stack. If you check the turn then I think he will bet again as he is aggressive. So I think the choice on the flop is fold, shove or call and then shove any non T or J turn. I would be inclined to shove on the flop as I think you are ahead of his range:

Board: Kh 9s Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.626% 52.95% 01.67% 59763 1887.50 { Ks8s }
Hand 1: 45.374% 43.70% 01.67% 49322 1887.50 { JJ-TT, A9s, KJs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AJo-A9o, KJo-KTo, QTo+, JTo }

Its obviously a very tricky spot though. I really don't know the answer and am just giving my thoughts for better players to correct!

[fulksy]

would villian 3bet KJ+, from BB?

that board really hits his calling range pretty hard, so i think folding is fine. i don't like shoving flop because if he's decent is their any worse hands that call? i really doubt he has worse K's, and theirs no chance for combo draws. if i think I'm ahead i would call and c/ call a shove/shove over his raise on most turns, as if he was bluffing flop their is a decent chance he bluffs turn.

[Yabasa]

It's a very small raise, just a bit more than x2. The villain is either trying not to scare you off or is making a cheap raise with a weakish hand. I think it is more likely to be the latter.

I would question whether a player at those stakes would make the mistake of giving such goods odds without a monster. He's laying 4:1 with a board that also hit tai's range hard.

I would call and see if he slows down on the turn and c/f if he bets again. He's pretty much pot comitted at that stage and he'll know that you have something after your call on the flop. At that point i would expect him to be able to beat TPWK. He'd have to be hyper aggressive to the point of being a loosing player to be willing to stack off in the first round with a weaker hand than that. With the stats given i wouldn't say he is such a player.

But then again i don't play at those stakes

[taipan168]

I would call and see if he slows down on the turn and c/f if he bets again. He's pretty much pot comitted at that stage and he'll know that you have something after your call on the flop.

Isn't the problem that we have to act first on the turn? So assuming that we don't hit a K or 8 on the turn, are we checking after calling the raise? Isn't this just begging opp to bet again, which is a bet we pretty much can't call unless it is ridiculously small?

[Yabasa]

Isn't the problem that we have to act first on the turn? So assuming that we don't hit a K or 8 on the turn, are we checking after calling the raise? Isn't this just begging opp to bet again, which is a bet we pretty much can't call unless it is ridiculously small?

I don't know that it's a mandatory bet for him after we check the turn. If he was making a move on the flop i can't see him trying again on the turn with his tournament life at stake especially after we have shown that we're strong enough to call his first one, thereby pretty much announcing that we have at least TP.

If he does bet the turn i would say he has to be ahead.

So if you take my above reasoning to be correct i.e. if he checks behind on the turn we're likely ahead and if he fires again we're very likely behind, then our hand becomes a bluff catcher and the question becomes "how often is he making a move on the flop?" Given the odds we being offered if it's greater than 20% we should call. His action on the turn will tell you what the verdict is (again based on my reasoning above).

Is he bluffing greater than 20% of the time here? If you assume he is a good player then the fact that he is giving you such good pot odds in the first place indicates its probably less than 20%. Making this a fold.

But that just doesn't feel right. I think i might have wandered off course in my chain of reasoning.

[Duffryn]

Isn't the problem that we have to act first on the turn? So assuming that we don't hit a K or 8 on the turn, are we checking after calling the raise? Isn't this just begging opp to bet again, which is a bet we pretty much can't call unless it is ridiculously small?

Exactly. Calling the flop raise to see what the villain does on the turn is just donating chips. We don't even really like any cards on the turn. A king means we are still behind the case king with a better kicker and an 8 means we are still losing to every 2 pair, except Q9.

[fulksy]

Isn't the problem that we have to act first on the turn? So assuming that we don't hit a K or 8 on the turn, are we checking after calling the raise? Isn't this just begging opp to bet again, which is a bet we pretty much can't call unless it is ridiculously small?

if you called flop because you thought he was bluffing, then why wouldn't you c/c blank turns, you thought he was bluffing flop so give him a chance to bluff the turn, and obviously if you don't think he's bluffing then just fold flop, which i like because it hits so much of his calling range.

[Yabasa]

if you called flop because you thought he was bluffing, then why wouldn't you c/c blank turns, you thought he was bluffing flop so give him a chance to bluff the turn.

Because you can't know for sure if he is bluffing on the flop, calling gives you a chance to find out. However if he is betting the turn 100% after we check to him then calling on the flop is donating chips as he is just continuing with his story but we haven't come any closer to telling whether its true or not. The part that i'm not sure on is whether he will bet the turn 100% of the time? I was thinking that if he was making a move on the flop then he will slow down on the turn as it didn't work on the flop and to continue will mean pot committing himself. If he wasn't making a move then for sure he will bet the turn for value.

So what do you think he mostly does after we check the turn if he was making a move on the flop?

Or is it just so unlikely that he would try to make a move with such a small raise that its not worth paying for that tiny percentage of the time that he is bluffing?

This is a really interesting thread and i've kinda gone back and forth but i definitely think this is a fold now based on the standard of the opp. He's just not going to be bluffing there more than 20%. Against some LAG opp at lower stakes it might creep up to the 20% mark making it close.

[Da GOAT]

fold flop

what do u figure he raises flop with? also figure which he cals flop with.

[Duffryn]

Calling the flop raise and checking the turn allows the villain to play his hand correctly on the turn. If he has 2 pair plus or top pair good kicker he can bet again. If he has a pair + draw he can check behind and for 180 chips he got to see quite a few outs (prob 11 in the case of QJ) twice. If he was bluffing, then he can fire again or check behind. (He has 11 or 12 bluffing outs - A, J, T - twice). This hand is a great example of the perils of being out of position.

In real life, I would very probably fold to this raise. However, hitting top pair, average kicker on the flop and then folding to a min raise seems to be very exploitable play, especially blind v blind.

[Da GOAT]

well its not like he can raise flop for much more than that. about 2.5x hero bet is about the max.

[fulksy]

i don't know why he wouldn't bluff/semibluff most turns. when we check it looks like exactly what it is, we have a mediocre hand that were not sure is best and are trying to get to a cheap showdown.

[Duffryn]

well its not like he can raise flop for much more than that. about 2.5x hero bet is about the max.

I don't understand why you say this. Why is 2.5x the max?

[taipan168]

Thanks for the replies. Does everybody agree with the flop bet or is a check better?

[fulksy]

i definitely bet flop as you can get value from a good % of his range.

[baudib]

Bet the flop as he can call with a lot worse; I think you can give up after the flop raise if he's tight.

[givememyleg]

why make it 120 pre, why not 90?

i wouldn't say never check this flop, but betting i think is better.

[ilosemostly]

Your PFR of 4x is gonna narrow his preflop range down quite a bit and probably your perceived range too so given that this flop probably hits him reasonably well and that he perceives this flop to hit you reasonably well (though maybe he doesn't realise) it looks like a fold.

Its hard to see what kinds of hands he was playing preflop that he decided to turn into a bluff here. There are no open enders and no flush draws. It's possible he bluffs here with total air but given that you don't have any solid info on him its not a good idea to assume he'll be doing it even a moderate amount of the time.

Edit:

As for the flop bet, I don't think I ever check.
There is value here but more importantly it gives him too much info about your hand and you actually don't get any info on his hand when he bets the flop. So what happens on the turn is that he can immediately take KQ, Q9, K9, AA, KK, QQ, 99 and JT, AK, KJ (probably) and complete air out of your range while you have no clue about his hand which lets him play pretty well against you on the turn and river.

In addition betting the flop allows you to narrow his range down quite a bit in that you can assume he raises your c bet with most of the above hands and it gives no information away about your hand (air, monsters and mediocre hands are still in your range)

[baudib]

running some numbers and this flop is definitely a bet-fold. Because of the nature of the flop it's almost impossible for him to have less than top pair, and even if we remove the true premiums that he MIGHT 3-bet with (AK, QQ+) and better Ks, we're behind his range of connectors T9s+


Board: Kh 9s Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.488% 49.94% 00.55% 8899 98.00 { Q9s+, J9s+, T9s }
Hand 1: 49.512% 48.96% 00.55% 8725 98.00 { Ks8s }

that's an eye-opener.

If we include the premiums, sets and better Ks we are obviously destroyed.


Board: Kh 9s Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.358% 72.09% 03.27% 47818 2167.00 { QQ+, 99, AKs, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, AKo, K9o+ }
Hand 1: 24.642% 21.37% 03.27% 14178 2167.00 { Ks8s }

I'm not even sure how realistic it is to include the T9/J9 stuff, seems like they would be bad hands to raise here vs. Tai.

[Da GOAT]

I don't understand why you say this. Why is 2.5x the max?

why wud he want to raise more on flop??

As I mentioned, fold is standard on flop.

[taipan168]

why make it 120 pre, why not 90?

Bleh, could have made it 90 but my "standard" open raise at this level is 120. Not a good excuse, I know. I suppose 90 may be better considering that there is only one player left to act.

[Da GOAT]

making it 100 pre even looks scary.

[Nakamura]

I really don't think we should be betting the flop at all. An aggressive player puts us into a tough spot if he reraises and likely causes us to fold what may be the best hand. A call puts us in a tricky spot too, because do we bet the turn again?

I can see a good case for controlling the pot size (with likely the best hand) by checking the flop, plus we allow him to bluff with his bad hands as well. While I'm not happy about dishing out free cards, betting and folding to a re-raise from a wide range seems worse.

[Xenq]

I wouldn't be giving the raise a whole lot of credit. Especially if you have a feeling he's aggressive. I often see players making small raises like this with air just to pick off c-bets. However most often they will do it on rag board textures. Still, I would be giving him a fairly large bluff % here. You'll probably see a lot of Qx or even J9 or T9 type hands here as well. I probably flat-call flop then either C/C or C/R turn if the board doesn't pair or no gutshots make.

I think if you're going to raise prf then you are definitely betting the flop here. You've hit top pair with an OK kicker. TBH if I've got a read that they can cause trouble I normally just fold preflop in spots like this. I figure it's just not worth the effort at these blind levels.

[Jack Sawyer]

pre is a fold, nice and easy.
flop is a b/f. it's too early for shenanigans, tai

[taipan168]

pre is a fold, nice and easy.

That's too nitty for me. Above average hand and it's HU against the BB, what's wrong with a raise here?

[drmcboy]

3x pre or limp ok. If you can't adjust sb/bb you're playing too many tables and I don't believe that's your problem.

as played fold, if you have doubts check flop but I don't see why you would.

[Jack Sawyer]

That's too nitty for me. Above average hand and it's HU against the BB, what's wrong with a raise here?

you will be oop for the rest of the hand while holding a relatively mediocre hand, with huge stacks behind. any non-drooler opponent will abuse this spot against you a fair bit imo unless you gin it somehow.

[losttrem]

Tbh I also fold this pre. I need to see a tighter opponent in the BB in this spot as I wouldn't want to play a laggy villain oop with a marginal hand. Against a tight opp I wouldnt mind a raise.

As played I think you just need to bet/fold this. There is really no save turn card and an aggro opponent is very likely to fire the turn again and do we really want to get it in this early with TP and a bad kicker?

[Da GOAT]

you will be oop for the rest of the hand while holding a relatively mediocre hand, with huge stacks behind. any non-drooler opponent will abuse this spot against you a fair bit imo unless you gin it somehow.

why cant we just steal preflop and never make a cb unless we have 2pair+, this would still be +EV.

[TLR]

Preflop: I would not raise here at blinds 15/30, winning the blinds here is not really important and if he calls you are playing a relatively marginal hand OOP, I would limp pre, I also dont like the 4BB raise, I think that if you raise 3BB is enough

Flop: I think betting the flop is OK, once he raised calling is the worst option IMO, I would probably fold it, this is a flop that he could easily hit 2 pair or a pair + draw, and at this stage there is no reason to put your tournament life on the line with TP bad kicker on a drawy board