$26, goofy KK hand

[fjuanl]

Recently got ITM. Villain is 36/27 through 11 hands. Decide to flat because I think he folds to a shove way too often (assuming HUD stats are remotely close to being accurate). Thoughts on the river bet? Now what?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds 125 Ante (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t27659)
MP1 (t143912)
MP2 (t14290)
CO (t22389)
Button (t93831)
SB (t83470)
Hero (BB) (t16871)
UTG (t69564)

Hero's M: 6.75

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K
2 folds, MP1 bets t2221, 4 folds, Hero calls t1221

Flop: (t5942) 7, A, Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets t2211, Hero calls t2211

Turn: (t10364) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks

River: (t10364) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets t3300, MP1 raises to t20264, Hero ,,,

[baudib]

despite pot odds i think you need a mega-read or at least some odd timing tell to call. he's representing only 7x and it doesn't seem he expects you to fold Ax. not many can river bluff A-high boards after flop call without the board getting that scary.

[revolvingiris]

I would check call river tbh with this line. As baudib pointed out I think you have to fold as played.

[baudib]

I just realized the other thing he could be doing here is trying to push you off a chop. Your hand looks a lot like AJ- and with the board pairing he's taking the odd chance that you'll fold A9 or something because surely you can't have AK/AQ or 7x.

the problem is Ax seems to be the bottom of his range.

[KoRnholio]

Yuck. I guess fold as played. Kind of a strange villain line, but it doesn't seem bluffy. I think he turns up a weak ace here a lot, shoved for value/getting us off a chop since his kicker doesn't play now.

[drmcboy]

I don't like river lead vs random, this is exactly how he'd expect you to play Ax.

[KoRnholio]

I don't think the river lead is too bad, as long as we use it as a blocking bet and fold if raised. He'll probably call with any queen there, but won't bet it himself if checked to. Might even look us up with <JJ

[drmcboy]

maybe KQ/QJ, otherwise all he beats is a gutter, and it would be pretty amazing for us to bet QT here. Don't think worse calls ever and it turns bluffs we can call into ones we can't.

[fjuanl]

Maybe I doing the opposite of my normal tendency of giving randoms too much credit? Figured his thought process could be 'I have a pair of queens, he bet small. Call'

[drmcboy]

If we're thinking he isn't any good I'd rather just stuff it pre, "I have 140k and he's the BB, call".

even if he always call with Qx, he has a lot more Ax +7x + air in range. Not sure we save much against his better hands with this vs c/c, he only bet 1/3 PS on flop.

[fjuanl]

Yeah good points about pre and river sizing stuff. Up to what size would you c/c? Looking at this again I think I was more concerned about having to face a somewhat large bet and dropping from a somewhat playable ~12BB stack to a not very fun ~5BB stack




spoiler - I was a hero and he showed me the 7c4c

[revolvingiris]

'I have a pair of queens, he bet small. Call'

I used to do this a lot but I noticed that I always have to fold if I am raised. The problem is villains flop bet is either set, board pair, or under pair. When he checks behind on turn its almost never a set or a good A.

I guess you can call a pot sized bet on river facing this range but idk how often this would actually villains range.




Board: Ac Qs 7h 6h 7d
Dead:

Player 1: 35.484 % KK
Player 2: 64.516 % ATs-A8s, A5s-A2s, KQs, Q9s+, ATo-A6o, KQo, QTo+