general spot question

[philly and the phanatics]

ok sorry DC but this post needs a disclaimer,

i feel like im getting owned in situations like this, the turn card comes and its not one that improves my equity, nor is it one that is going to deter a call from anyone who called the flop, i want to know what your guys general strategy is in spots like this


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($10)
Hero (MP1) ($10.66)
MP2 ($11.09)
CO ($15.15)
Button ($22.46)
SB ($9.98)
BB ($10)
UTG ($7.25)

Preflop: Hero has {22-88, AT+,KT+} (basically our b-c (not bet/call but B and C from rentons theory) range on this board)
2 folds, Hero bets $0.40, MP2 calls $0.40, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.95) 9, 9, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, MP2 calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.15) 8 (2 players)
Hero ?

ok in this example villain is 16/14/ 55% fold to cbet over 100 hands, not much to go on sample size wise but still...

my problem with this spot is that against a lot of other villains i feel im getting floated a lot and often folding the best hand whether its 77, or AQ.

obviously if the villain is floating a shit load you can check/call with shit like 77 but idk it feels pretty gross doing it with AQ.

i guess i probably just need to hear someoen say "yo this is just why playing pots oop sucks, check fold is fine even if its happening a lot"

[Icanhastreebet]

if he's folding 55% to flop c-bets he's not rly exploiting you with a float here since he'll probably just fold this flop some % that is > 55%. Basically he's getting to the turn w/ X hands + X floats but he has X hand so much that he's not going to be exploiting you when you are c/fing. Even if you are c/fing 100% which you shouldn't if you expect him to have floats SOME % because he'll eventually start floating the flop to steal the pot on the turn.

Quick point about the X hands + X bluffs. If villain has a value hand 80% of the time and is bluffing 20% of the time. You can't call w/ like a bluffcatcher just because HEY villain has some combos of bluffs! I think this is basically the same type of situation. DOUC?

[tiltisthename]

Having a "fold to turn cbet" stat in your HUD would help a lot.

[Icanhastreebet]

lol HUDs

[Micro2Macro]

Having a "fold to turn cbet" stat in your HUD would help a lot.

if anything this is useless if you put too much stock in it. this stat isn't going to tell you how your opponent perceives you/is adjusting to you and how he will react based on different board textures.

[tiltisthename]

if anything this is useless if you put too much stock in it. this stat isn't going to tell you how your opponent perceives you/is adjusting to you and how he will react based on different board textures.

true, but at 10NL do you really believe that vilains "in general" use this perception to adjust against you?

here's the thing. you don't know anything about the villain. once you get to know how he plays then yes, this stat then lessens its value. but until then, this is all the info you could have. which is better, having a little info or having no info at all?

[philly and the phanatics]

if he's folding 55% to flop c-bets he's not rly exploiting you with a float here since he'll probably just fold this flop some % that is > 55%. Basically he's getting to the turn w/ X hands + X floats but he has X hand so much that he's not going to be exploiting you when you are c/fing. Even if you are c/fing 100% which you shouldn't if you expect him to have floats SOME % because he'll eventually start floating the flop to steal the pot on the turn.

Quick point about the X hands + X bluffs. If villain has a value hand 80% of the time and is bluffing 20% of the time. You can't call w/ like a bluffcatcher just because HEY villain has some combos of bluffs! I think this is basically the same type of situation. DOUC?

what if hes folding like 35-45% of cbets, then hes def get more floats in his range, but then can i start double barrelling here instead of check/bluffcatching amirite?

[Micro2Macro]

true, but at 10NL do you really believe that vilains "in general" use this perception to adjust against you?

here's the thing. you don't know anything about the villain. once you get to know how he plays then yes, this stat then lessens its value. but until then, this is all the info you could have. which is better, having a little info or having no info at all?

hey here's a thought

regardless of your stake there are going to be cards on the turn you opponent will like to continue to a barrel on, and dislike to continue to a barrel on, so REGARDLESS OF WHAT FUCKING STAKES YOU PLAY NOTE TAKING WILL BE OF HIGHER IMPORTANCE IN GATHERING READS THAN YOUR FUCKING HUD YOUR HUD ISN'T GONNA HOLD YOUR HAND WHILE YOU CROSS THE TURN

seeing your opponent fold 2/2 times to an ace falling on the turn and then calling 2/2 times when a card less than 10 falls on some random dry board is going to tell you wayyyy more than 'fold to turn cbet 50%'

[tiltisthename]

hey here's a thought

regardless of your stake there are going to be cards on the turn you opponent will like to continue to a barrel on, and dislike to continue to a barrel on, so REGARDLESS OF WHAT FUCKING STAKES YOU PLAY NOTE TAKING WILL BE OF HIGHER IMPORTANCE IN GATHERING READS THAN YOUR FUCKING HUD YOUR HUD ISN'T GONNA HOLD YOUR HAND WHILE YOU CROSS THE TURN

seeing your opponent fold 2/2 times to an ace falling on the turn and then calling 2/2 times when a card less than 10 falls on some random dry board is going to tell you wayyyy more than 'fold to turn cbet 50%'

We're talking readless here. So we talk in generalities. And in general, how do 10NL players play? I don't know why you are comparing the importance of reads vs. stats when the answer to that should be obvious.

Read what I asked again. "Which is better, having a little info or no info at all?" It does imply we're readless doesn't it?

[Micro2Macro]

if we're readless, then we wouldn't have HUD stats for fold to turn cbet

[Micro2Macro]

btw philly your actual hand here matters on the turn when you choose to barrel, in general on a turn like this just barrel with equity till you gain more info since you can't really expect whatever called the flop to fold turn here you need some outs.

[tiltisthename]

if we're readless, then we wouldn't have HUD stats for fold to turn cbet

You know what I mean.

[Micro2Macro]

You know what I mean.

no i dont