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 Originally Posted by Lyric
This is similar to drilling an oil well and dying before you reach oil -- which may not be at that location. If someone buys your hole and keeps going -- he is gambling that he will strike oil there as you have been doing all your life. Both of you are gambling that it will come to fruition, and the well does not necessarily hold more value the deeper the hole gets... it could by dry forever. It only holds potential; same as research on physics theorems.
Go on?
It sounds like we're on the same page of this one, but the lotto winner is still winning a bunch of cash and the dead driller is SOL. And the fact that the lotto winner made a -EV bet, but yielded hot, hot cash while the driller made a likely +EV bet and came up empty handed, further reinforces my framing.
That the lotto winner was not making a wealthy move, but disconnected to the wealth of his actions, yielded great riches. While the driller made the much better and more wealthy action and had no rich reward.
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