NL5 AQ tptk 146bb deep

[philly and the phanatics]

Well....yuck. My personal experience with hands like this is that you are beat and should fold. But just for the heck of it I'll go thru a quickie analysis using a pot odds vs hand range thought process.


I would put my opp on three types of hands, sets, flush draws and misc (two pairs, overpairs, etc). Against a set you are in terrible shape around 2%, or 49 to 1, yuck. Against a flush draw you are about 50-50, many flush draws will also have an overdcard, pair, or gutshot. The last category is the toughest, the middle of this group is something like two pair 8-7 type hand, you are a 3 to 1 dog against this hand.

Here is the summary:
Group 1 = 2%
Group 2 = 50%
Group 3 = 25%
---------
Mean = 26%


This is about 3 to 1 and you are getting only about 2 to 1 from the pot.


In the absence of specific knowledge about this player playing recklessly I fold.

this would work but there isnt an equal amount of combos in each group so you cannot just take a straight up averaage like that

[shallam]

this would work but there isnt an equal amount of combos in each group so you cannot just take a straight up averaage like that

Actually I would argue that a straight hand combo analysis is less accurate because it doesn't take into account game situations. While a set may be statistically less likely, based on available hand combininations, it is MORE likely based on the known game situations.


My analysis takes into account the probabilities of BOTH hand combination probabilities AND game situations.


Plus, I'm away from poker stove right now and it was a quickie analysis.

[Imthenewfish]

Actually I would argue that a straight hand combo analysis is less accurate because it doesn't take into account game situations. While a set may be statistically less likely, based on available hand combininations, it is MORE likely based on the known game situations.


My analysis takes into account the probabilities of BOTH hand combination probabilities AND game situations.


Plus, I'm away from poker stove right now and it was a quickie analysis.

no.