5nl Overcards vs Flop 4bet shove

[tiltisthename]

Villain is 43/14 over 22 hands. No reads on him...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($11.85)
BB ($12.11)
UTG ($3.09)
Hero ($12.69)
CO ($3.02)
BTN ($6.45)

Dealt to Hero 9 9

UTG raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.27) 8 2 4

UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1, UTG raises to $2.99 (AI), Hero ??

Shoving range for him in this spot could be TT+,88,44,22,A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o, K8o

Which I'm 56% favourite over...

Using the range you gave I think you're overestimating your equity. You are I think at best flipping here. Non-diamonds K9s+, Q9s+ and J9s+ aren't shoving unless villain's a complete retard.

IMO given stats and without further reads I can't really see him doing this with a draw. Villain seems more like a passive player due to a huge discrepancy in VP and PFR, so I would think that his range here is more like TT+,88,44,22 (44 and 22 are a bit questionable), all of which have us beat. I just can't see him taking this line with 33,55-77 and draws since those are likely to just c/c or b/c. So I fold.

This is only because I don't really know the villain's tendencies postflop. And I'm basing this on solely on villain's PF stats so my analysis is questionable. Just giving my thoughts on how I'd play this hand.

[tomato paste carnage]

You are I think at best flipping here.

This.

You gave villain a much wider range than what is probable. Overpairs are a large part of villain's range, all of which have you beat (aside from the one combo that splits the pot).
Against AKs / AQs, you're flipping. The rest of villains range is weighted towards 88,22,44.

If and when you find that villain is playing A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o, K8o like this, go ahead and make the call ... but because you don't have any reads, I'd let it go.