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 Originally Posted by Tasha
How about this:
If he had AQc then he had 15 outs after the flop, giving him a 46% chance to improve his hand.
His pot odds are 44% so it was worth it to call the flop bet. Then he hit his A and then his flush?
okay thats one possible hand on the flop. There's still like 20+ other hands in his range, don't base decisions on 5% of his range.
Originally Posted by Openside
Playing 14/11, raising 3bb from MP2 and calling the 3bet id put him on QQ+, AKo/s, AQs. AA shoves on you preflop the vast majority of the time but we'll still leave it in there. He isn't calling your 3bet with lower pairs, there just isnt EV to set farm you. I like your flop bet sizing. He is only calling your flop bet with QQ+, AKc, AQc imo. I hate your turn bet sizing, it screams "i dont have the A!", which is why he fires the bluff on the river. I would have bet 10 min. If he has AAA or the flush he is value betting you on the river not shoving imo.
Calling the shove you need 26% Equity (15.18/58.86).
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.172% 51.72% 03.45% 45 3.00 { QQ+, AQs+ }
Hand 1: 44.828% 41.38% 03.45% 36 3.00 { KK }
its a call imo.
Edit: I am assuming your table image is TAGG 
QQ checks behind here IMO. So does KK.
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