QQ, overpair on flop, lots of action ($27)

[taipan168]

Button's stats were 50/16 and BB's were 30/20, both over a tiny sample size of 10 hands (ie. this tourney). No way I'm folding this, right?

Poker Stars $20+$5+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 8 players

BTN: t1260 42 BBs
SB: t1800 60 BBs
BB: t2810 93.67 BBs
UTG: t1650 55 BBs
UTG+1: t1260 42 BBs
MP1: t1780 59.33 BBs
Hero (MP2): t1470 49 BBs
CO: t1470 49 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is MP2 with Q Q
UTG calls t30, 2 folds, Hero raises to t120, CO calls t120, BTN calls t120, 1 fold, BB calls t90, 1 fold

Flop: (t525) 7 6 J (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400, CO folds, BTN calls t400, BB raises to t2690 all in, Hero ????

[ManicLombax]

I'd ship it, particularly with all the dead money in the pot. If he's protecting a set against the flush draw so be it. He'd almost certainly 3-bet AA or KK pf. Could easily be a flush draw semi-bluff and you'd be getting it in with great pot odds.

[fulksy]

i need to agree with manic, he could have to many combo draws not to call here, AA, KK is rare with no 3 bet pre. he could even be spazzing with AJ.

[baudib]

never folding overpairs getting 3-1 on drawy boards

[TLR]

Ugly spot, you are probably facing a draw by the caller and either a set, AJ or some sort of a draw from the villian who pushed.
As played I would call it, I think the interesting decision in this hand is your bet on the flop, your bet size pretty much commited you to this hand. OOP vs 4 players on this flop I am not sure I am betting at all

[fulksy]

I think the interesting decision in this hand is your bet on the flop, your bet size pretty much commited you to this hand. OOP vs 4 players on this flop I am not sure I am betting at all

do you like c/r better? i think with this bored a vbet will get called by worse pretty often and giving a free card could be pretty terrible.

the bet sizing seems pretty good to me, as its a wet board and it sets us up for a nice turn push.

[baudib]

the bet sizing seems pretty good to me, as its a wet board and it sets us up for a nice turn push.

I'm wondering if open shoving this flop is better. The problem with the bet sizing is that the pot will be 1,325 with a call and we'll have under 900 left on the turn and up to 20 scare cards can hit the turn (clubs, T, J, A, K).

It's probably not a good idea at the 27s but at lower buy-ins you'll get called by worse a lot.

[ManicLombax]

Seems like if you do have an opp with a draw, you want them to call here as long as you're not betting so small they get the right odds. Open shove flop might get better opponents to fold their draws. Then again with so many people in the pot, if the first opp calls then all the others are probably now getting correct odds to call with their draws. Yeah maybe bigger bet on the flop is better here?

[fulksy]

i think being commited here is fine as were way ahead of his range even if one of those scare cards comes up we still have tons of equity, i think shoving the flop might get called by some worse hands to call but usually the only draws that call are combos with lots of equity against us, i want the weak straight draws, Jx's to call.

this is my range for a caller on flop. and equity if one of the worse cards comes Tc.

and if i take away the weak straight draws and all 7x's we still have tons of equity on this scary board, we have the Qc which is a nice blocker.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

6,688 games 0.005 secs 1,337,600 games/sec

Board: 7c 6s Jc Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.321% 62.32% 00.00% 4168 0.00 { QcQs }
Hand 1: 37.679% 37.68% 00.00% 2520 0.00 { JJ-66, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, Kc9c, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, J9s+, T9s, Tc8c, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 54s, AJo, A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o, 76o, 54o }

[drmcboy]

bet vs c/r is debatable, based on the stats it seems likely someone will bet.

if we bet focus should be on getting value from Jx and worse made hands, we're never going to be able to fold to a card that completes an OESD or a club anyway so those folks are getting a good price no matter what we do.