200nl KQo 3betpot OOP vs Lagg

[JL]

Villain is running 25/20/4.4 with a fold to 3bet of 43% (4bet 13%)
He seems a little bit spewy, and he calls too much preflop and on the flop.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($217.20)
CO ($74.45)
BTN ($298.95)
Hero ($212.10)
BB ($200)

Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, BTN raises to $5, Hero raises to $18, 1 fold, BTN calls $13

Flop: ($38, 2 players)
Hero bets $24, BTN calls $24

Turn: ($86, 2 players)
Hero barrels?

[meeloche]

I would not. Pretty bad card for it imo.

[Micro2Macro]

if you are going to I'd recommend a plan for barreling rivers as well.

[Alexos]

I like it, for all we know he can peel overs here, any pair, and 78s type stuff since he's so spewy pre and post. I'd definitly shove rivers on a J,Q,K,A,spade, and possibly others.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Bet one more time at least for sure.

[d0zer]

this is a classic bad turn to barrel...

Are we just firing it because of the combination of over/gutshot equity, and the fact that villain's range preflop is pretty wide, and he's gunna be floating with enough that he'll give up the turn with?

What if we had like...AsJd here? Do we need the gutshot equity?

[Micro2Macro]

Well we probably have somewhere around 20-25% equity vs his range.

If we bet 1/2p our bet only needs to work 33% of the time to show a profit if it were a pure bluff - but since we have equity that number will be even lower. If villain plays his range in an unbalanced fashion (highly likely given the stakes and his fold to 3bet %) we can discount KK/QQ/sets (and even flush draws if he will always raise them on the flop).

We probably get a fold more than 40% of the time if villains range is fairly wide and he doesn't slowplay big hands. Even if our turn bet is slightly -EV we definitely have a +EV river barrel opportunity and barreling the turn frequently should be good for our image. It also makes villains tendency to call the flop too light a mistake if we're going to be firing multiple streets. If you want to just bet once on this flop and give up, you might as well check/fold OTF because doing so just let's villains tendency to call cbets too light work in his favor. If you want to exploit villain for calling your cbets too light you need to be putting pressure on him on later streets when his range is weak/capped.

Against this type of player the bricked turn is a perfectly fine card to barrel with our overs+gutter. I think we should barrel AJ as well even without having the gutter (at least some of the time) until he adjusts by not floating us as lightly and slowplaying strong hands. Until he shows you can do that, I would assume he is incapable of it and keep barreling.

[surviva316]

what about c/shoving? he doesn't have a ton of two pair type hands that will exploit us by checking back

[Micro2Macro]

c/shove makes our hand look exactly like what it is to most players at 1/2 i would think?

plus if he likes to delay float that pretty much kills the chance of us winning the pot unimproved.

[IowaSkinsFan]

this is a classic bad turn to barrel...

Are we just firing it because of the combination of over/gutshot equity, and the fact that villain's range preflop is pretty wide, and he's gunna be floating with enough that he'll give up the turn with?

What if we had like...AsJd here? Do we need the gutshot equity?

There are tons of hands that we are losing to that could fold this turn. AQ/AJ, 33, 55-88. And we have two overcards and a gutshot.

[kmind]

There are tons of hands that we are losing to that could fold this turn. AQ/AJ, 33, 55-88. And we have two overcards and a gutshot.

I would think those hands fold on the flop?

[griffey24]

I would think those hands fold on the flop?

Its unlikely that someone who is folding only 43% of 3bets, is not peeling most pairs here.

Lots of ppl call AQ pre (instead of 4betting) to "keep worse in", so lots of ppl float AQ on flops as well.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I would think those hands fold on the flop?

It's possible, I wouldn't have expected in when I played 6 max as my main game, but maybe people have gotten nittier.

[Alexos]

It's possible, I wouldn't have expected in when I played 6 max as my main game, but maybe people have gotten nittier.

I can almost guarantee a guy like this will not fold pairs or overs on the flop (and he has a bunch of them in his range pre). People have gotten very spewy at 6max NL, I guess they just learned that it's hard to make a pair. 3 barreling has thus become very profitable. /

edit: on euro sites at least

[Micro2Macro]

I would think those hands fold on the flop?

given the description of the player, absolutely not.

[sauce123]

of COURSE we bet turn, but do we call a jam ??

[griffey24]

of COURSE we bet turn, but do we call a jam ??

I can't imagine calling a jam here,but maybe I'm missing something.

From what I can tell at lower stakes, people are more likely to either raise their draw on flop or call down. At higher stakes I've seen more people call flop with draws and jam turns.

[JL]

of COURSE we bet turn, but do we call a jam ??

I think it's close and depends on what our bet size is.
If we be $50 on the turn and he jams, then we need ~28% equity to call.
Now it all depends what his range is.

With a tight range of sets, two pair, overpairs, and TPTK, we have to fold:

Board: Th 9s 2s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.208% 12.21% 00.00% 188 0.00 { KcQd }
Hand 1: 87.792% 87.79% 00.00% 1352 0.00 { 99+, 44, 22, ATs, T9s }

With a wide range with almost every possible flush draw, it becomes a call:

Board: Th 9s 2s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.782% 28.16% 00.62% 793 17.50 { KcQd }
Hand 1: 71.218% 70.60% 00.62% 1988 17.50 { 99+, 44, 22, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, ATs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QJs, QsTs, JsTs, T9s, Ts8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, QJo }

However, I'd expect him to raise a lot of these draws on the flop, so I'm going to say that it's a fold...unless we bet like $70+.

[bspahn]

considering your read is that he calls 3bets wide and calls flop bets wide and he's not a fishy moron it makes it a reasonable spot to barrel turn since he know it's a BAD turn card to bluff at and will quite likely fold a lot of better hands than yours on the turn.
you have at least 4 outs if not 10 as well in case he does call.

[Genitruc]

i prefer a turn CR and leading rivers for about 3/4 pot if the turn checks through

and yes KQ is way better than AJ for a turn CR (or for a 2-barrel) imo

[bspahn]

if villain is holding hands that beat us such as Ax or smaller pairs then i dont think CR will accomplish much since he'll check a ton back for pot control and a cheap showdown. you get the odd bluff or semibluff that might fold in this spot but those are hands we'd likely make fold by barreling here anyway including those hands that are ahead of us.

are you really going to bet flop and then CR a hand like KK or AA here with a bunch of draws out there? (unless you have some read that villain always raises draws on this flop.. and you're not too worried about giving free cards when you have the goods)

[griffey24]

are you really going to bet flop and then CR a hand like KK or AA here with a bunch of draws out there?

This is exactly why a bunch of people will bet the turn when we check, and then convince themselves to call the c/r. needs to be the right type of villain though, and yah it does suck when you try this and they check through. Some people never check when we check though.