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 Originally Posted by Openside
I reread your post. If you are not folding and they are c/r your mid/ bottom set i am inferring that you are stacking off (100bb) each time and therefore must have lost approx 5 out of 11 based upon an average of +8bb, which illustrates my point if i am correct in assuming not all of the 11 had connected flops.
I actually made a mistake in the filters. Where I selected "facing raise", I selected this pre flop, not flop. I have now adjusted the filters, and my results are even better.
11 hands from 33k that match the criteria (just facing a raise onflop in general, not necessarily a check/raise), average profit over these 11 hands... 11bb
Of these 11, I've lost 3.
33 had lost twice, both times to a raise on the flop from a draw that hit the turn, losing 50bb (that's a stack off) and 27bb
44 got folded on the turn for a loss of 5bb to a 542 diamonds flop, 6 spades turn. Replaying that hand, I actually think I was good, looks like overpair with diamond, but obviously I didn't think so at the time. I guess I just cut my losses since it was a small pot and waited for a better spot, he overbet the turn.
So the 8 wins won me (11x11) + 27 + 50 + 5... 204bb
3 beats cost me 27 + 50 + 5... 83bb
Net profit 121bb, over 11 hands that's the 11bb per hand.
For sure the average loss is heavier than the average win, but the amount of times it wins more than makes up for these losses. I've only stacked off once in three when I'm beat, so clearly board texture and player tendancies are playing a large part in keeping my losses down. I've folded it once in three, the one time I saw to showdown without stacking off I was up against tp/flush draw on flop, we had a raising war which I ended with a flat call, he makes flush on turn, and then he checks his flush down waiting for me to bet, which of course I don't. The time I stacked off I didn't credit him with the nuts since he raised the flop. He has straight on turn and we stack off here.
Either you're just very unlucky, you've made a mistake with the filters, or you're playing your sets badly. Are you folding to a raise on the flop with a set? That might explain why you're not making money with them.
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