flop nut flush facing shove

[ed cooper]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP3) (t1500)
CO (t1490)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1200)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1440)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1900)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with ,
3 folds, MP2 calls t20, Hero bets t90, 1 fold, Button calls t90, 2 folds, MP2 calls t70

Flop: (t300) , , (3 players)
MP2 bets t20, Hero raises to t220, Button raises to t1380 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero??

3rd hand in so no reads.

[Duffryn]

You need to have 38% equity in the pot for calling to be break even in cash terms and if he has an overpair, two pair with 65s, an open ended straight draw or a set you have 46% equity.

Board: 6h 5d 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.148% 45.78% 00.37% 27647 222.00 { AhQh }
Hand 1: 53.852% 53.48% 00.37% 32299 222.00 { 55+, 22, 87s, 65s, 43s }

As there is a distinctly non zero chance he is spewing with something like A6, I would call.

[ed cooper]

You need to have 38% equity in the pot for calling to be break even in cash terms and if he has an overpair, two pair with 65s, an open ended straight draw or a set you have 46% equity.

thanks mate. how did u come up with 38%? this figure is the breakeven equity?
if so, whats the formula? been searching and found sth but it didnt come up with 38 so thought id ask.

this is sth i need to improve on. whats the best resource/s to learn more?

[Duffryn]

That figure is the breakeven equity. It is just $your bet/($your bet + $pot) * 100.

If the pot is $6 and the villain bets $2, the pot is $8 and you have to bet $2. So you are betting $2 to win $8, so you need to have a 20% chance of winning to break even. Or $2/($2+$8) *100 = 20%.

So, in the original hand posted, the pot was 300 pre-flop. (90 + 90 + 90 + 20 +10).

And 1620 goes in on the flop, so the pot is 1920. You need to call 1160, so you need at least

1160/(1920 +1160) = 37.7% equity.

[taipan168]

...and generally speaking, in non-bubble situations like this we add about 2-3% to our required cash game equity to come up with our ICM equity. We can do this more exactly using an ICM calculator but roughly speaking I'd be looking for about 40-41% equity to make this an +EV call.

If we take Duffryn's range (which I think is fine), our hand has ~46% equity and we need 40-41% so it's a call.

[PokerWiz]

If you're looking to learn more then I suggest you read free articles on the web. There are a lot of sources here. You could also get yourself a coach.