Great turn card but somewhat awkward stack size

[KoRnholio]

Villain is loose and passive, something like 30/0/1.5 postflop Agg factor over 50 hands. Could have raised pre but didn't mind taking a flop multiway.

edit to add: Villain's W2SD = 38%, W$@SD 62%

Great turn card, but there's 3400 left behind and a 1300 pot. I could see merit in taking a free card, betting small, or even overbet shoving with ~40% equity when called.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) On Game
SB ($12,712)
BB ($2,525)
UTG ($3,905)
UTG+1 ($1,464)
Hero ($5,982)
MP1 ($5,893)
CO ($6,995)
BTN ($8,024)

Dealt to Hero Q K

UTG calls $200, fold, Hero calls $200, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB checks

FLOP ($700) 4 J 5

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $300, BB folds, UTG calls $300

TURN ($1,300) 4 J 5 T

UTG checks, Hero.. ?

[ManicLombax]

If he's folding to your shove wouldn't he fold to a bet of 1000 or so? Then if you whiff you're not crippled. Free card option seems ok to me too if you think he's not folding often here. You might get some money since anything you hit will be a backdoor.

[drmcboy]

raise pre, you want position on the fish with a great hand.

as played bet ~800, he's passive and the T can help scare away low PPs 4x/5x. If he jams, he jams.

[chardrian]

I take the free card here. What is he c/calling flop with that he is going to fold to a double barrel on the turn with?

[djh860]

I love double draws you can play them so many ways and get paid well but I usually play them quietly unless I flop the double draw. So I will often bet 3/4 of pot on that turn and look to get paid well on the river if I get there. I think all my cards are live there and all my made hands are winners there a high percentage of the time.

[djh860]

Yes he will call but you have so many outs. You will get paid well when you get there.

I take the free card here. What is he c/calling flop with that he is going to fold to a double barrel on the turn with?

[KoRnholio]

Yes he will call but you have so many outs. You will get paid well when you get there.

A couple things to think about: If you know he will call, then there's not a lot of use/value in semi-bluffing. If you know you'll get paid well if you hit, why not use your position to see that card for free, bet/raise for value when you hit, lose less when you miss (by not betting the turn).

[baudib]

because we lose when we brick half the time?

i jam

[stardustakos]

I agree with raising pre.
Take the free card. If we bet and he is ahead in any way, he is not folding and if he is behind, we don't want him to fold in case we both hit and we have the better hand so we get paid from the fish.

[drmcboy]

If he'll never fold the turn then he'll never fold the river so we win 3400 chips instead of whatever you're going to bet on the river when you hit.

I think saying he'll never fold on either street doesn't make sense, people make calls with bad hands all the time on the flop.

plus If he never folds, he'll also never fold straight draws which we have in terrible shape but make no money against on the river.

[stardustakos]

Yeah I like this better

[KoRnholio]

If he'll never fold the turn then he'll never fold the river so we win 3400 chips instead of whatever you're going to bet on the river when you hit.

I think saying he'll never fold on either street doesn't make sense, people make calls with bad hands all the time on the flop.

plus If he never folds, he'll also never fold straight draws which we have in terrible shape but make no money against on the river.

Just to clear things up, I'm not saying villain will never or always fold to a turn bet. His Went to showdown and won $ at SD numbers make it seem like he shows down somewhat tightly, though it's a small sample.

Some guys will call with crap on that flop (say like A9), but not many will do it when out of position. I don't think this guy would. I think with his flop call he has some sort of pair, though two overcards KQ/AQ/AK is definitely possible as well given how passive he is.

[drmcboy]

comment was directed at char saying they would never fold turn. I don't think it matters unless we get c/r a lot which makes no sense given read. If they fold a lot great, if they call a lot great, same with river. If two choices are close I'm always going to take the one that gives me more chances to win a pot with king high and win big pots with the nuts.

[drmcboy]

ps regarding your semi bluff post it fails to include the added value when you hit on river - that bet will be > 2x as big as the one you're saving when you miss.

[KoRnholio]

I'm still not sure which action I should have taken. On one hand this guy isn't going to be floating oop with crap or have many/any 4x/5x in his range that I can make fold. On the other hand, he shows down somewhat tightly, so he may fold hands like 66-99. I don't think he'd fold a ten on that turn unless I shove.

Results:

I checked behind. River came 3d he checked, I value bet (a little under half pot if I recall) and he folded.

[drmcboy]

On one hand this guy isn't going to be floating oop with crap... I don't think he'd fold a ten on that turn unless I shove.

You can't say he might have a ten and say he doesn't call with crap on the flop.

[KoRnholio]

Sorry meant a jack.