AK tptk nightmare flop $1 mtt

[OngBonga]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.1 Tournament, 150/300 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG (t5821)
UTG+1 (t15367)
Hero (MP1) (t15193)
MP2 (t10725)
CO (t12346)
Button (t17775)
SB (t5013)
BB (t16795)

Hero's M: 33.76

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K
UTG bets t750, 1 fold, Hero calls t750, MP2 calls t750, 1 fold, Button calls t750, 2 folds

Flop: (t3450) Q, J, K (4 players)
UTG bets t3000, Hero ???



Reads...

UTG - 8/5 (111 hands), I'd forgot this guy existed it's been so long since he played a hand. Nit or very card dead. Fold to 3bet % - 75 (3/4)

MP2 31/19 (26), his only showdown at the table was a blind special, his sb AA busting bb's AT, pre flop raising war. Ft3b - 0 (0/1)

BU - 16/8 (111), chatty and solid player, he's been happily picking off fish with monster hands the last 20 minutes or so. Ft3b - 50 (1/2)

Ranges...

UTG - well, it's tough to decide just how nitty he is, or if he's just having a horrible run of cards. I give him 88+ AQ+ when he raises pre flop.

MP2 - 22+ 9Ts+ KQ+ ATs+

BU - I think he can come in with any pair, most scs, most broadways, A7s+, something like that.


So, first of all, is my line ok pre? UTG raiser is a nit, I was ready to 3bet but had the presense of mind to notice his stats and put him on a range, figured he probably folds dominated hands and shoves better so didn't see what was to gain by 3betting. Can I just fold, or is this toooooo nitty?

Then the flop. WTF do I do here? When he pots I put him on TdT, JJ+ AQ+, but really I'm not sure he bets any Ax hands without the diamond. And with two to act behind with plenty of 2pairs and flushes in their ranges, I really don't like this spot. Is this a standard snapfold /thread?

Cheers.

*edit - my stats, if they're relevant, are running at 19/10 over around 183 hands, but this is seriously skewed by first hour limps. At this table I'm probably running closer to 15/12, can't be sure.

[KoRnholio]

We're slightly ahead or way behind. Terrible reverse implied odds, I think we're too deep to play for stacks on this flop. Best case scenario is we shove and one person calls with like TdT or AK without the Ad. Not a pleasant spot to be in, I fold.

[ManicLombax]

Yeah I'm folding pretty quickly. As Kornholio says even on the off chance that we're ahead right now we're almost certainly not going to be soon, particularly with so many people in the pot. UTG looks like he's either protecting a set or semibluffing a giant draw.

Preflop I think calling vs. nit is probably ok, but 3-betting not bad either unless you think he's only opening UTG with hands he won't ever fold.

[OngBonga]

Thanks for replies.

Yeah I think he was jamming pairs and AKto a 3bet and folding AJ worse, which is why I didn't 3bet. I figure he only has AQ that I want to see, and even then he might fold this with his nitty stats. I can't fold to a 4bet if I do 3bet, and I didn't want to race for a third of my stack.

FWIW I folded the flop pretty quickly, I didn't even swear. It was just a "Wow" and to be honest I was glad he potted instead of checking it over. He's raised 5% hands in 111, he's hit that flop, I'm not sure I'd have wanted to bet if it checked to me.

[drmcboy]

what was the plan if he led a good flop for you?

[OngBonga]

what was the plan if he led a good flop for you?

Well, at the point of call, I was thinking I would be HU with this guy, it was somewhat surprising to get two calls behind, not many hands were multi-handed by this stage, and a nit just raised UTG. HU I'm probably happy to stack against this guy on this flop rainbow, definitely if it's hearts. Depends just how good my flop is. If I flop TPTK and nothing else four-handed, and he pots, I still might fold, he's showing some strength by firing out UTG into a four-handed pot, and I only have one pair, with two left to act behind. I would say he bluffs that spot rarely. But if we're HU, he's c-betting his 88-TT and AQ more often, so I've got more equity against his betting range.

I guess my plan was to stack this guy, I got him well covered, position and a very good drawing hand. He's got enough pairs in his range that he can fire with, and any c-bet from him is pretty committing. I realise sometimes I'm doubling him up, but there will be plenty of times he'll dump his stack my way, strengthening my already solid position.

[ManicLombax]

what was the plan if he led a good flop for you?

Drmcboy, are you thinking here if the flop comes K82 rainbow, and he leads out, that you're afraid he's got AA/KK? I think most times I'm willing to stack off on that flop with AK, but on the other hand against a nitty player opening from EP there isn't much else in his range that he likes this flop with except AA,KK,AK. I'd definitely call one bet in case he's c-betting something I can beat, but I think I'm usually willing to get the rest in. Interested to hear what you think though.

[stardustakos]

His range is strong here. I agree with ManicLombax, He opens UTG , (running 8/5 over 111 hands is probably not a bad run of cards) and he leads a 4 way pot with KQJd, I say he is definately w AA or KK and he wants to get rid drawy hands and hands like yours with potential to bing and get there.

[OngBonga]

His range is strong here. I agree with ManicLombax, He opens UTG , (running 8/5 over 111 hands is probably not a bad run of cards) and he leads a 4 way pot with KQJd, I say he is definately w AA or KK and he wants to get rid drawy hands and hands like yours with potential to bing and get there.

I don't really doubt I'm way behind when he fires the flop, it would be harder to determine this if there wasn't another two people in the hand since he could be cbetting 88-TT, if he can raise these hands UTG. I guess this is possible, since he's been folding a lot, and deep in MTTs this is unsustainable, there comes a point where you have to widen your range.

I've not got him on QQ+ AK when he opens, so I don't see that I should fold this pre. Should I have him on this range UTG and save myself 750?

[OngBonga]

Also, I'm not sure if it's significant, but the very previous hand I busted out a short stack with AK, he shoved his JJ onto a K-high flop and din't have the stack to make me fold. This did make me think a bluff was less likely, though the fact it was four-handed and he's oop was the real indication that he had the goods.

[ManicLombax]

I've not got him on QQ+ AK when he opens, so I don't see that I should fold this pre. Should I have him on this range UTG and save myself 750?

I think calling is fine here. I play 8/5 sometimes when my cards are pretty bad, but I think I'd still open TT+ maybe AQ as the blinds get higher. If someone had raised and this guy had re-raised I would fold my AK pf, but here I'd call. Annoying you had two people call behind you though.