ICM

[billyfold]

hello friends,
I have been playing sit n goes for a while.
I have heard that I cannot be successful without knowledge of ICM.
I downloaded sitngowiz.
Icant run this on Pokerstars....where I play.
What can i do?
How can I understand ICM?
I find it very difficult.

Is there someone out there who has mastered this who can advise me..?

[Duffryn]

There is an article on ICM here:

Independent Chip Model/ICM Calculations

Simply put, ICM is about calculating your current share of the prize pool and what that changes to based on an action you could take, eg call, shove etc. Obviously if your share goes down, the action is not profitable. The calculation is not difficult, but it is long winded.

SnG Wiz exists to do ICM calculations for you. As players with SnG Wiz would have a big advantage over those without, it is banned by all reputable poker sites while playing, but you can use it when you are not logged into a site. So you can review your SnGs in Wiz and see if you were correct to shove/call or whatever in spots you were unsure of. That way, you get to develop an instinct for the effect of ICM. (Don't go with Wiz's suggestions on what other players are pushing/calling with - you need to enter your own figures).

The ICM effect is biggest on the bubble and biggest with big stacks. Wiz also lets you put in scenarios. So you could put in one where you have 6000 in the BB, UTG has 6000, the BTN has 1,000 and the SB has 500. Blinds are 100/200 and you have QQ. If UTG shoves in all his chips, you think he would do this with 15% of his hands and the short stacks fold, should you call? In a cash game, you would instantly call - but I think Wiz would suggest folding QQ here and maybe even KK. That's the ICM effect at getting on for its most extreme.

You can't "understand" ICM in the sense that you can calculate in 15 seconds what the right play is ICM-wise whilst playing a SnG, unless you have the brain of a computer. But you can develop a feel for when the ICM factor is large, such as understanding that you have to be very tight on the bubble, when you have a big stack and another big stack has shoved.

[Fielmann]

I downloaded sitngowiz.
Icant run this on Pokerstars

You can't use it while playing. It's meant for reviewing your hands afterwards.

[LuckySlevin]

Hey Billyfold,

2 posts in almost three years... I guess that makes you officially a lurker !

Icant run this on Pokerstars....where I play.
What can i do?

First of all and as others have already suggested ICM software generally runs in one of two modes. Post game analysis mode and live suggestive mode.

SNGWIZ is allowed on Stars, at least any recent version 1.0.1.163 and beyond is (refer: Online Poker Software - Prohibited Programs, Tools and Services). SNGWIZ will not run while the poker client is open which is precisely why it is allowed. To be honest if you want to learn how to play having it run live would be completely counter productive anyway, you need to spend time with it post game, changing variables and really understanding the effect of different table dynamics on the suggestions it makes.

You asked a brilliant question in your post,

How can I understand ICM

I started answering it, before too long I realised I couldn't do your question justice in a single reply - so I explanded, edited and expanded again...

Four hours later and I've written an article to specifically answer your question, which I've now submitted to FTR. An evenings grinding sacrificed for a good cause. I hope it's of some use!

Understanding ICM

“Every artist dips his brush in his own soul, and paints his own nature into his pictures.” — Henry Ward Beecher

What is that I hear you ask? How can I understand ICM? That is an excellent question and lies at the heart of improving your SNG profitability. You can understand ICM by reading about it, reflecting on what you have read, and reading some more. The more you read the better your understanding will become. You can further enforce this understanding by analysing your games (we will discuss this shortly). As with most things in poker and life worth learning there are no shortcuts, the more you read (and the more sources you study) the deeper and more intuitive your understanding of ICM will become.

To truly understand ICM you need to understand and explore three key questions: -

1. How is equity calculated with ICM?
2. How can you use ICM to make profitable push/fold decisions?
3. Why ICM needs you?

1. How is equity calculated with ICM?

With that in mind let us now look at what ICM is in essence. ICM (or Independant Chip Model) is a model used to calculate how much your chips are worth at any particular point in a SNG. ICM calculates the current dollar equity you hold in a game by considering your current chipstack, your opponents stacks and the prize structure of the SNG you are playing. ICM is useful when you are in push/fold mode, this usually occurs during the middle to end game of a SNG.

At the heart of ICM lay probabilities and lots of them. To calculate how much your chips are worth an ICM calculator will first work out the probability that you will finish in a paid place and for each place it will multiply this probability with the value of finishing in that specific place. By combining these values the calculator arrives at a current equity which converts your stack into a $ amount. These calculations can be quite labour intensive. In order to calculate your chances of finishing in any place other than first the calculator has to work out every other players probabilities at the same time!

2. Making profitable push/fold decisions

The real power of tools like SNGWIZ however which calculate your equity using ICM is not the fact that they do all the number crunching for you (very useful) - but that they then take this a step further by considering key what if situations.

What would your equity be if you folded, what would it be if you pushed, what if you are facing a shove and you call? By calculating equity in terms of your potential chipstack after each of these actions the software is able to calculate the difference between your current equity (calculated as explained above) and your equity following the outcome of the what if scenario. If the difference is positive then the play from the ICM perspective makes sense if it is negative it does not. You can also set a required edge which basically acts as a threshold for how much extra equity you would need to make a play worth playing (this edge factor is designed precisely to allow you to set how much of an edge you desire to tip the balance between a fold or a push/call).

If you take the time to learn ICM and truly understand it, you will radically improve your game. You will also embrace a really absorbing and fascinating learning experience.

3. The ghost in the machine - why ICM needs you

There are caveats though, which is why it is really important to understand both the power of ICM and it's limitations. This understanding will only come with practice and time, the deeper you study ICM the broader and more fruitful your insights will become. Caveat number one - the majorist of major caveats is that the what if situations are calculated using hand ranges which you input for your villians. SNGWIZ will ascribe general ranges but using your knowledge of your own opponents you need to check that these are acurate and when they are not, or need minor adjusting, you need to make sure you adjust them. This is more a key principle than a caveat really. If Dan Harrington had invented SNGWIZ he would probabally have termed this the Fundamental Theorom of ICM.

Another pretty important caveat which you will grasp easily once you spend some time investigating how ICM works, is that it takes a static snapshot of your equity and does not consider future actions past the what if scenarios. So for instance if one of your opponents is about to be completely blinded out in the next orbit owing to having no fold equity at all (an M of about <=2) it will usually make sense for you to play far tighter than ICM may suggest, ICM lacks the imagination to consider this type of future event.

The calculator is only as good as the data that it is working with, this is where your unique awareness of your table's dynamic comes into play. When combined with this awareness - your ability to dynamically construct and reconstruct hand ranges for your opponents that only you can provide - the ICM tools are a vital and potent force to increasing your profitability. When used blindly they can do your game more harm than good.

By utilising ICM intelligently with your own imagination and intuition (aka experience) you can really become a formidable force at the table. ICM is a tool it needs to be combined with your unique human abilities.

Back in 1997 the world acclaimed chess Grand Master, Garry Kasparov, entered an epic second battle with the IBM owned chess super computer, Deep Blue. Kasparov towards the end of game number two, convinced himself that the machine was more than a machine. He concluded that Deep Blue had human collaborators in real time and that IBM were cheating.

Kasparov was so convinced of this that it completely unsettled him for the rest of the match and he went from effortlessly defeating the computer in game one, to not winning one of the remaining four games. The provocation came when Kasparov set a pawn sacrifice up that the machine by his reckoning should have taken in a snap.

Kasparov had set a trap which if the bait was taken would orchestrate a far more favourable outcome for him later in the game. The move was an algorithmic no brainer so to speak, and provided Deep Blue with an easy path to material advantage yet it was not taken. Instead the machine did not take the pawn, it appeared to be fully aware of Kasparov's gameplan and ignored the trap. The decision was so intelligent that it bordered on the sublime. Kasparov concluded that it was impossible for a machine to have played it. The move that was played relied on an aprehension of the entire game dynamic, it required a deep intelligent and panoramic view of the situation. As far as Kasparov was concerned it required human genius.

Your ability to look beyond the static confines of any one model or rule, and to integrate these tools with your own perception and understanding of the game is what will set you out on the path to becoming a champion SNG player. Any machine can calculate ICM, but it takes the most advanced processor on earth to ensure those calculations are acurate (by artfully constructing true ranges for your opponents) and useful (by integrating them with the ever changing nuances of your table's dynamic that only you can truly know). Strive to be more than machine, you are a human endowed with abilities beyond your imagination, when you use these with ICM you will truly be a force to be feared.

When used properly ICM is a powerhouse of a tool, that will revolutionize your understanding of profitable SNG play and definately increase your winrate.

Over to you.

[billyfold]

wow...thats what I call a reply!
thank you very much for your time...I appreciate it!
Being busy with work I get very little time to devote to my poker...let alone off table study....so I have a lot of understanding to do.

But your replies have helped me in my thinking and how I should move forward.

I loved the Kasparov story Lucky Slevin...great stuff!

[Nakamura]

Well done Slevin, a well written piece of work!

@Billy Try the WIZ quiz mode. It will help you get a feel for calling and shoving ranges and you can steam through 50 hands in about 10 minutes.

[LuckySlevin]

Thanks, pleased it was useful!

[PokerWang]

Hey Billyfold,

2 posts in almost three years... I guess that makes you officially a lurker !



First of all and as others have already suggested ICM software generally runs in one of two modes. Post game analysis mode and live suggestive mode.

SNGWIZ is allowed on Stars, at least any recent version 1.0.1.163 and beyond is (refer: Online Poker Software - Prohibited Programs, Tools and Services). SNGWIZ will not run while the poker client is open which is precisely why it is allowed. To be honest if you want to learn how to play having it run live would be completely counter productive anyway, you need to spend time with it post game, changing variables and really understanding the effect of different table dynamics on the suggestions it makes.

You asked a brilliant question in your post,

I started answering it, before too long I realised I couldn't do your question justice in a single reply - so I explanded, edited and expanded again...

Four hours later and I've written an article to specifically answer your question, which I've now submitted to FTR. An evenings grinding sacrificed for a good cause. I hope it's of some use!

Understanding ICM

“Every artist dips his brush in his own soul, and paints his own nature into his pictures.” — Henry Ward Beecher

What is that I hear you ask? How can I understand ICM? That is an excellent question and lies at the heart of improving your SNG profitability. You can understand ICM by reading about it, reflecting on what you have read, and reading some more. The more you read the better your understanding will become. You can further enforce this understanding by analysing your games (we will discuss this shortly). As with most things in poker and life worth learning there are no shortcuts, the more you read (and the more sources you study) the deeper and more intuitive your understanding of ICM will become.

To truly understand ICM you need to understand and explore three key questions: -

1. How is equity calculated with ICM?
2. How can you use ICM to make profitable push/fold decisions?
3. Why ICM needs you?

1. How is equity calculated with ICM?

With that in mind let us now look at what ICM is in essence. ICM (or Independant Chip Model) is a model used to calculate how much your chips are worth at any particular point in a SNG. ICM calculates the current dollar equity you hold in a game by considering your current chipstack, your opponents stacks and the prize structure of the SNG you are playing. ICM is useful when you are in push/fold mode, this usually occurs during the middle to end game of a SNG.

At the heart of ICM lay probabilities and lots of them. To calculate how much your chips are worth an ICM calculator will first work out the probability that you will finish in a paid place and for each place it will multiply this probability with the value of finishing in that specific place. By combining these values the calculator arrives at a current equity which converts your stack into a $ amount. These calculations can be quite labour intensive. In order to calculate your chances of finishing in any place other than first the calculator has to work out every other players probabilities at the same time!

2. Making profitable push/fold decisions

The real power of tools like SNGWIZ however which calculate your equity using ICM is not the fact that they do all the number crunching for you (very useful) - but that they then take this a step further by considering key what if situations.

What would your equity be if you folded, what would it be if you pushed, what if you are facing a shove and you call? By calculating equity in terms of your potential chipstack after each of these actions the software is able to calculate the difference between your current equity (calculated as explained above) and your equity following the outcome of the what if scenario. If the difference is positive then the play from the ICM perspective makes sense if it is negative it does not. You can also set a required edge which basically acts as a threshold for how much extra equity you would need to make a play worth playing (this edge factor is designed precisely to allow you to set how much of an edge you desire to tip the balance between a fold or a push/call).

If you take the time to learn ICM and truly understand it, you will radically improve your game. You will also embrace a really absorbing and fascinating learning experience.

3. The ghost in the machine - why ICM needs you

There are caveats though, which is why it is really important to understand both the power of ICM and it's limitations. This understanding will only come with practice and time, the deeper you study ICM the broader and more fruitful your insights will become. Caveat number one - the majorist of major caveats is that the what if situations are calculated using hand ranges which you input for your villians. SNGWIZ will ascribe general ranges but using your knowledge of your own opponents you need to check that these are acurate and when they are not, or need minor adjusting, you need to make sure you adjust them. This is more a key principle than a caveat really. If Dan Harrington had invented SNGWIZ he would probabally have termed this the Fundamental Theorom of ICM.

Another pretty important caveat which you will grasp easily once you spend some time investigating how ICM works, is that it takes a static snapshot of your equity and does not consider future actions past the what if scenarios. So for instance if one of your opponents is about to be completely blinded out in the next orbit owing to having no fold equity at all (an M of about <=2) it will usually make sense for you to play far tighter than ICM may suggest, ICM lacks the imagination to consider this type of future event.

The calculator is only as good as the data that it is working with, this is where your unique awareness of your table's dynamic comes into play. When combined with this awareness - your ability to dynamically construct and reconstruct hand ranges for your opponents that only you can provide - the ICM tools are a vital and potent force to increasing your profitability. When used blindly they can do your game more harm than good.

By utilising ICM intelligently with your own imagination and intuition (aka experience) you can really become a formidable force at the table. ICM is a tool it needs to be combined with your unique human abilities.

Back in 1997 the world acclaimed chess Grand Master, Garry Kasparov, entered an epic second battle with the IBM owned chess super computer, Deep Blue. Kasparov towards the end of game number two, convinced himself that the machine was more than a machine. He concluded that Deep Blue had human collaborators in real time and that IBM were cheating.

Kasparov was so convinced of this that it completely unsettled him for the rest of the match and he went from effortlessly defeating the computer in game one, to not winning one of the remaining four games. The provocation came when Kasparov set a pawn sacrifice up that the machine by his reckoning should have taken in a snap.

Kasparov had set a trap which if the bait was taken would orchestrate a far more favourable outcome for him later in the game. The move was an algorithmic no brainer so to speak, and provided Deep Blue with an easy path to material advantage yet it was not taken. Instead the machine did not take the pawn, it appeared to be fully aware of Kasparov's gameplan and ignored the trap. The decision was so intelligent that it bordered on the sublime. Kasparov concluded that it was impossible for a machine to have played it. The move that was played relied on an aprehension of the entire game dynamic, it required a deep intelligent and panoramic view of the situation. As far as Kasparov was concerned it required human genius.

Your ability to look beyond the static confines of any one model or rule, and to integrate these tools with your own perception and understanding of the game is what will set you out on the path to becoming a champion SNG player. Any machine can calculate ICM, but it takes the most advanced processor on earth to ensure those calculations are acurate (by artfully constructing true ranges for your opponents) and useful (by integrating them with the ever changing nuances of your table's dynamic that only you can truly know). Strive to be more than machine, you are a human endowed with abilities beyond your imagination, when you use these with ICM you will truly be a force to be feared.

When used properly ICM is a powerhouse of a tool, that will revolutionize your understanding of profitable SNG play and definately increase your winrate.

Over to you.

Wow! This must've taken a lot of time and effort on your part. It's people like you who make me believe there is still some good in this world.

[spoonitnow]

For the sake of clarity, I thought I'd point out that the move Deep Blue "found" against Kasparov was indeed the result of human intervention and cheating on IBM's behalf, and it wasn't just speculation.