400nl - so who's gettin raped here?

[nutsinho]

donk123

[IowaSkinsFan]

donk123

I was about to post about how id c/c most of the time here on the flop until I saw this post. I think lead flop, at least, is the best play.

[sauce123]

I was about to post about how id c/c most of the time here on the flop until I saw this post. I think lead flop, at least, is the best play.

this is definitely wrong, our opponent cbets 88% !

donking flop here is giving him a free pass to not make a mistake when he has already basically told you he is going to make one.

that being said, donking might be ok on this board in other situations, though i dont donk at all in my game really

[Ravageur]

this is definitely wrong, our opponent cbets 88% !

donking flop here is giving him a free pass to not make a mistake when he has already basically told you he is going to make one.

that being said, donking might be ok on this board in other situations, though i dont donk at all in my game really

except when you re playing Galfond proteges at PLO hu?

[IowaSkinsFan]

this is definitely wrong, our opponent cbets 88% !

donking flop here is giving him a free pass to not make a mistake when he has already basically told you he is going to make one.

that being said, donking might be ok on this board in other situations, though i dont donk at all in my game really

Should we not make the assumption here first, that its incredibly more likely this guy is cbetting 100% of k33, a22, 223 type boards, and that it is plausible he is not cbetting a board like this with a high frequency? That would lower my estimated cbet for him to 75-70%, which still seems like a large amount on this board.

I suppose you're right though, KJ here is one of our best equity c/r draw hands against his range that he calls a c/r with. I believe vs an opponent who cbets optimally or less than optimally on this board that our best move is to c/r this board with the two nut hands in our range (Q9, 66) with our Asxs hands, and combo draws. Our range is so heavy with non nut draw hands, I think this is a spot where we are going to get looked up constantly with less than the nuts on a lot of runouts.

That being said, discussing the actual c/r on the river. I can't really think of many hands besides 87 that is less than a flush that he will consistently play this way up to the river and bet. I suppose QJ/QT could bet here but it seems like a spew unless its an attempt to bluff catch.

On the other hand, I really like betting the river big. He has a wide range of hands that you're losing to that are not going to bet the river.