low flush on paired board vs random

[KillsAids]

opponent is a random but he's up to that point, didn't do many fishy stuff 19/12. I don't know how he would play his draws but being a random I think it's more likely he'd play them passively. I planned on barreling the turn but the J was probably one of the worst cards ever.

Do I miss value by just calling river as opposed to raise/folding?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($200)
SB ($202.40)
BB ($203)
UTG ($96.80)
UTG+1 ($87.85)
MP1 ($248.65)
MP2 ($233.70)
CO ($238.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, 7
2 folds, MP1 bets $6, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, 2 folds

Flop: ($15) J, 3, 8 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $12, MP1 calls $12

Turn: ($39) J (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($39) K (2 players)
MP1 bets $22, Hero calls $22

Total pot: $83 | Rake: $3

[PokerWiz]

I would've re-raised him.

[Micro2Macro]

I think you can def raise/fold here for value.

[caddie444]

why aren't we betting turn when we can credibly rep a J and comfortably b/f? What's his cbet stat?

As played agree with M2M

[KillsAids]

why aren't we betting turn when we can credibly rep a J and comfortably b/f? What's his cbet stat?

The board pairing is not ideal to barrel, esp against a random who's going to be calling more often than a reg. Also I feel that if I barrel turn I'm kind of forced to bet river too on a blank to push him off of any kind of draws.

I feel these c/c c/c lead lines are very common for fish (I usually consider randoms to be fish until proven otherwise) when they have a draw and miss river. The thing is, here the river brought a draw in and that made me want to call instead of raise because I figured he's not too likely to vbet a KX hand here when the flush is there and the J is paired. So I thought he either had a busted straight draw for bluffs, or a slowplayed JX (but I thought that's also unlikely since he didn't cbet) or a flush for value.

[PapalRage]

I think you can def raise/fold here for value.

yea, this looks like AK or KQ a ton and i would expect him to cbet a flush draw a decent percentage of the time