50nl- barrel this brd? or give up otf?

[unclesteve]

+1

op i think you need to re-read the responses to the thread

already have, havn't seen anything apart from 'cbet once and give up' or 'cbet in a 3bp w/Ahi isn't burning money'.

Basically, here I think he can call my flop bet with lots of hands that he won't call 3with, like w/KJ, QJ, JT, J8, J7, J6, K9, Q9, 9T, 89, 97, QT, KT, KQ, Q8, and obv some FDs.

Add the hands that he can call 3with, like Ax, and this is basically his entire range, that he won't fold flop with...

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

[griffey24]

already have, havn't seen anything apart from 'cbet once and give up' or 'cbet in a 3bp w/Ahi isn't burning money'.



Add the hands that he can call 3with, like Ax, and this is basically his entire range, that he won't fold flop with...

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

I don't disagree that his range for calling 3barrels may be somewhat narrow. But the problem is, you don't know what his hand is. Sure its easy to say that he won't call 3barrels with Jx, 9x or FD.

So what do you do on a diamond river? Do you bet or do you give up? What do you do on a 9x or Jx river? Do you bet or do you give up? or an Ace river? All of a sudden there's tons of bad runouts where you won't want to triple barrel, cause he'll call your triple and you'll lose a big pot, so you're left shutting down and you're showing down vs his "call twice" range anyhow.

[Micro2Macro]

So how can a cbet w/o barrels be profitable?

bet/(bet+pot)

ignoring any equity in hand and assuming our cbet is a pure bluff:

2/(2+3.25) = .38, or 38%

if he folds any more than that your cbet is profitable without having to fire and more streets.